译者 elena218
China’s economy will slow in 2012, prompting policy makers to reduceinterest rates and loosen lending restrictions, said Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
曾准确预测了2008年金融危机的经济学家鲁里埃尔.鲁比尼预言，中国经济将在2012年减速，促使决策者们下调利率并放宽借贷限制。
“It’s going to be a significant growth slowdown this year,” Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in a Bloomberg TV interview today. “Housing is deflating. Export growth is slowing down. If they don’t do something -- stimulus in monetary and fiscal credit -- the risk is that the growth will slow down well below 8 percent.”
“今年经济增长将有明显下降，”鲁比尼是鲁比尼全球经济公司的创始人之一，他今天在接收彭博社电视采访中说道，“房价在下降，出口增长在放缓。如果决策者们不做出点行动-刺激货币及财政信贷-面临的风险将是经济减速将正好低于8%。”
China’s gross domestic product increased 9.2 percent last year, matching the slowest pace since 2002, as the housing market cooled and the European debt crisis eroded export demand. The central bank cut the amount banks must keep in reserve last month for the first time in three years, and the government has allowed its five biggest banks to boost first-quarter lending and may relax capital requirements, people with knowledge of the matter said this week.
去年中国国内生产总值增长了9.2%，随着房地产市场的降温和欧洲债务危机对出口需求的腐蚀，这是自2002年以来的最低增速。本周有关专家指出，央行在上个月于3年来首次下调了存款准备金，政府已准许5大银行扩大一季度借贷，并有可能放宽投资要求。
The world’s second-largest economy, China will further reduce the reserve-requirement ratio for banks in the first half of this year and reduce benchmark rates for the first time since 2008 to “jump start the economy,” Roubini said. Growth below 8 percent will create “political noise” as China undergoes a leadership transition, he said.
作为世界第二大经济体，中国将在本年前半年首次下调存款准备金率并自2008年以来首次下调基准利率已实现经济跳跃式启动，鲁比尼说，随着中国要经历一次领导人换届选举，增速低于8%将产生“政治噪音”。
China is in the midst of a planned shift in its ruling elite that will culminate late this year at the 18th Communist Party Congress. The meeting, which occurs every five years, will probably see Vice President Xi Jinping tapped as China’s next president and Li Keqiang, currently vice premier, put forward as prime minister.
中国的领导阶层正处于换届期并在今年晚些时候的第18次全国人民代表大会上达到高潮。人大会每五年召开一次，在今年的人大会上，习近平副主席将有可能成为中国的下一任主席，现任副总理李克强将提拔为国家总理。
Roubini, a professor at New York University, predicted the U.S. housing bubble before the market peaked in 2006, while failing to foresee a rebound in global stocks in 2009.
鲁比尼也是纽约大学的一位教授，他早在市场于2006年达到顶峰之前就预测了美国的房市泡沫，却未能成功预测2009年全球股市的反弹。
Home prices fell last month in 52 of 70 Chinese cities from November, according to government data released on Jan. 18. Exports increased 13.4 percent in December from a year earlier, slowing from 24.5 percent in August, according to customs bureau data.
1月18日政府公布的数据显示，自去年11月以来中国70个城市中有52个城市在上个月房价有所下跌。海关总署的数据显示，出口自去年早些时候到12月增长了13.4%，自8月以来为24.5%放缓。
To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at Margaret Brennan in New York at mbrennan25@bloomberg.net
联系本报道记者：纽约，Margaret Brennan ，Ye Xie ，mbrennan25@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos atpapadopoulos@bloomberg.net
联系本报道负责编辑：David Papadopoulos，papadopoulos@bloomberg.net
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/281248/247827
