译者 邋遢流~
China has become such a reliable prop in the State of the Union that I half-expected it to stand up in the balcony for an anxious cameo. Two years ago it was in a list of admirable upstarts “not waiting to revamp its economy,” the President said, ticking off a club that included allies, Germany and India. Last year, he sharpened the sense of a challenge, framing China as the ambitious arriviste—“home to theworld’s largest private solar research facility, and the world’s fastest computer. So, yes,” Obama said, “the world has changed.”
如今，中国在美国国情咨文的出现已经如此变得稀松平常，以至于我有时候甚至都能预期它会站在国会舞台上急切的客串一把。两年前奥巴马将中国放在名单上是作为值得效仿的新贵，“时刻准备着改善它的经济”，并将其与德国和印度等盟国放在一个阵营中。去年，奥巴马强化了它的口气，将中国视为一个有雄心的新型竞争者，并指出“中国拥有是世界最大的太阳能私人研设施究和世界上最快的计算机。”承认到：“所以，是的，世界已经改变了。”
But last night the tone had changed:
但是昨晚，奥巴马的语气却改变了：
Tonight, I’m announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China. There will be more inspections to prevent counterfeit or unsafe goods from crossing our borders.
“今天晚上，我宣布将建立一个商业执法部门。它的主要职职责是调查那些进行不公平贸易的国家，比如说中国。未来，将会有更多的检查以防止冒牌货和危险品跨过国境进口进来。”
Enough with the inspiration. We’re inspecting shipping containers now. “It’s not right when another country lets our movies, music and software be pirated. It’s not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they’re heavily subsidized,” Obama said. “I will not stand by when our competitors don’t play by the rules.”
我们已经有足够的检查了。我们目前已经在检查海运集装箱了。但是奥巴马认为“让其他国家盗版我们国家的电影、音乐和软件不可谓是正确的。让其他国家的制造产业受益于大量补助而强于我们不可谓是公正的。所以当其他国家违反规则的时候，我不会坐视不管”
That will draw cheers companies that have pushed for anti-dumping and piracy investigations, as well as the U.S. trade officials who have been arguing that China has flunked several key promises it made to enter the World Trade Organization a decade ago. This line also has political value against Mitt Romney, who has sought to establish himself as the harshest voice on China in the race.
奥巴马的讲话，让那些积极推动反倾销和知识产权调查的公司大受鼓舞。也鼓励了那些坚称中国并未信守10年前入世谈判时的做出的几项重要承诺。奥巴马的将会也会有政治影响，罗姆尼寻求成为最刻薄的反对者的企图会面临挑战。
Does this signal an explosive season ahead for China and the U.S.? The year of the black water dragon is upon us over here—the firecrackers in the alley outside are going day and night this week—and the Chinese fortune tellers are foretelling an “especially inauspicious” year for the world economy. China does not seem to have the appetite for a trade standoff with the U.S. at the moment. On the contrary, it is turning inward at the moment; it just broke a thirty-year tradition by not sending any high-level officials to Davos, and it is focussed on domestic politics as it prepares for its own political handover to a new Politburo this fall.
但这次将会是否会挑起中美争端呢？受制于明年经济原因，中国似乎没有意愿陷入与美国的贸易僵局。在这个大街小巷到处燃放着烟花爆竹的时候，很多中国问题预言家预测今年将是中国经济即为不详的一年。与之相对的，中国开始更多地关注自身的情况，尤其是国内政治局势已为明年政治局的换届做准备。因而，30年来中国首次没有派遣高级官员参加达沃斯论坛。
After the speech, I called Arthur Kroeber, an American who is managing director of GK Dragonomics, a Beijing-based economic research firm, for his take. He had some other numerology in mind: “China is a big issue in U.S. politics in odd-numbered years, because there is no election. In 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, we had the peak of the currency debates. But in every case, the closer you got to an actual election,China evaporated as an issue.”
国情咨文结束后，我与来自北京的龙洲经济研究所美国籍主管Arthur Kroeber通了电话。关于这个问题，他有些其他观点：“每当奇数年到来之时（比如2005、2007、2009和2011年），因为美国没有选举，中国就成为美国政治的真正问题。那些年份是我们对中国汇率问题议论最激烈的时候。但是越是靠近选举之时，中国问题就越是削弱成一个议题，而不是问题的时候了。”
In the opening weeks of 2012, Americans have, perhaps, a more deeply visceral reaction to the China-jobs issues than in previous cycles, but Kroeber has a prediction: “Obama made a few gestures on stronger trade enforcement, which signals to your base that you’re on the right side, and then you move on and forget about it once the real campaign is started. And I’ll bet you anything you want that once theRepublicans actually have a nominee, it will be a remote issue.”
在2012年大选年的第一周，美国人心中对中国人掠夺工作的看法就变得比以往选举愈发严重。但是 Kroeber预言到：“奥巴马通过在贸易执法上做出一些姿势来迎合一些右翼选民。这样到真正大选的时候，你就会忘记中国问题。我跟你打赌当共和党人真正产生一个候选人的时候，中国就将成为一个不受关注的议题了。”
Listening to the speech from afar, Kroeber was most struck by how familiar the issues sounded to what the Chinese are discussing every day: the demand for economic fairness, the urgent need for innovation, and the appeals to national pride. It is a curious fact that the very moment the United States is acclimating to its first major challenger since the Cold War, that challenger is bracing for its own politicaltransition (not remotely democratic, mind you), and trying to refashion an economy to reward more of its citizens.
在听完演讲之后，Kroeber惊讶的发现这些语句是多么的熟悉。事实上，中国每天都被这样讨论着：对经济公平的需求，对创新的迫切以及对美国骄傲的追寻。非常有趣的是，自冷战以来每当美国需要应对又一个强大的挑战者之时，他都会发现这些挑战者脱颖而出是因为国内政治改革（提醒你注意的是不是遥远的民主变革），以及希望通过改革经济来回报公民。
“Both of these large countries are struggling with different but fundamentally similar types of enormous income-equality problems and economic transitions,” Kroeber said. “In China, it’s about how to move away from the low-end export-driven economy, and in the U.S., it’s the post-industrial question: How do we drive job growth now that we can’t employ thousands of people in steel plants? If you’re aglass-half-full person, you would view those similarities as a positive thing. Fundamentally your problems are pretty similar.”
“中美两国都在尝试着解决不同的问题，但根本问题却是相似的，即严重的收入不均衡和经济转型。对中国来说，需要关注的如何转变其低基础的出口驱动经济。对美国来说，则是如何在钢铁厂不再能雇佣上千名员工的时候提高就业率这类后工业时代问题。如果你是一个乐观主义者，你将会将这些相似点视作积极力量。“
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/126407/248441
