译者 cutecat
China Developers Ease Home Sales
中国开发商减少房屋销售
Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
齐来申/布鲁姆堡
China’s home transactions will fall 10 percent this year, according to Daiwa Securities Capital Markets, while UBS AG says the curbs may boost supply to the highest in a decade
按照大和证券资本市场的统计，今年中国的房屋交易量将下降10%,而瑞士银行则称限制措施可能会使供应量达到十年之内的最大值。
China’s biggest developers slowed home sales toward the end of 2011, bracing for the worst property market in three years as the government vows to keep real-estate curbs.
2011年年底中国最大开发商的房屋销售量降低，在中国政府郑重宣布要坚持房地产的限购措施之际，它们努力振作以应对未来三年最糟糕的楼市。
Contract sales, or sales booked before apartments are completed, dropped 30 percent last month at China Vanke Co. (000002), as the country’s biggest developer by market value offered fewer homes from November. Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. (3333), the second-biggest Chinese developer by revenue, said sales in November and December were the lowest for the year.
上个月，万科企业股份有限公司 （000002）的合同销售量，即公寓完成前预定销售量，降低了30%。11月以来它作为中国最大开发商（按市场价值计)，提供的房屋量越来越少。恒大地产集团（3333），按收入计中国第二大开发商，称11月和12月的销售额是本年度最低的。
Developers are looking for ways to preserve record sales last year as the impact of purchase limits and tighter mortgage requirements imposed by the government spreads. China’s home transactions will fall 10 percent this year, according to Daiwa Securities Capital Markets, while UBS AG says the curbs may boost supply to the highest in a decade.
随着中国政府实施的限购和更严格的抵押要求的影响不断扩展，开发商正在寻找保持去年销售记录的方法。按照大和证券资本市场的统计，今年中国房产销售额将下降10%，而瑞士银行则称抑制措施可能会使供应量达到十年之内的最大值。
“If the government doesn’t relax the enforcement on the house purchase restrictions and mortgages by the summer, then we could have a crash in the housing market by the end of the year,” said Andy Rothman, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets’ China macro strategist in an interview in Shanghai.
“如果到夏季，政府仍不放松房屋限购令和抵押政策的实施，那么房屋市场有可能在年底崩溃。”安迪.罗斯曼，里昂证券亚太市场中国宏观策略师在上海的一次采访中说。
China’s home prices had their worst performance in 2011 in December, with only two of the 70 cities tracked by the government posting gains, according to data from the National Statistics Bureau yesterday. Less Willing
根据国家统计局的数据统计，2011年12月中国房屋价格萎靡不振，政府跟踪的70个城市中只有两个逆势增长。
About 16 percent of respondents in China said in a 2011 survey they plan to buy a property in the next two years, down from 22 percent in 2010, according to Credit Suisse Group AG. That makes China the only of seven developing countries in its poll that saw declining willingness for home purchases.
根据瑞士信贷集团的数据，2011年的一项调查显示大约有16%的回复者说他们打算近两年买一套房，相对于2010年的22%有所下降。此次投票使中国成为7个发展中国家中唯一一个见证房产购买欲望下降的国家。
The government has reiterated it won’t back away from real- estate industry curbs, while the financial center of Shanghai and Beijing are among Chinese cities that have said they will continue to impose home purchase restrictions this year.
中国政府已重申将不会放弃房地产抑制措施，而中国的一些城市称今年它们将继续实行房产限购政策，其中包括上海、北京等金融中心。
Evergrande “adjusted the sales rhythm” in November to have a “reasonable base data” for 2012 after beating its sales target, said Chief Executive Officer Xia Haijun last month. It set its contracted sales target for 2012 at 80 billion yuan ($12.7 billion), lower than the 80.4 billion yuan it achieved last year, according to a Jan. 16 statement.
上个月恒大地产执行总裁夏海军说，恒大地产集团在超额完成销售任务以后，于十一月“调整销售节奏”，要为2012年确定一个“合理的基础数据”。据1月16日声明，2012年合同销售目标设定为800亿元（127亿美元），低于去年达到的804亿元。
China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd., the biggest Chinese developer listed in Hong Kong, stopped efforts to “actively promote and launch projects in November and will set prices that will factor in the government’s policies and market conditions this year,” said Yang Haisong, the state-owned company’s Hong Kong-based head of investors relations. ‘Not Confident’
中国海外发展有限公司，香港上市的中国最大开发商，11月份将不再“积极筹划并开展项目，也将固定价格并计入今年政府政策和市场状况，”总部设在香港的国有企业的投资关系领导杨海松说道。 ‘不自信’
Developers “intentionally” slowing down sales at the end of the year “shows that they are actually not confident of their sales this year,” said Peter Bai, a Beijing-based property analyst at China International Capital Corp., the country’s biggest investment bank.
年末开发商“故意”降低销售额"说明事实上他们对今年的销售额不自信，” 总部设于北京的中国最大的投资银行国际金融有限公司的房产分析师彼得.白说。
Developers may be facing one of their toughest years in 2012, said Chen Li, head of China equity strategy at UBS. Their cash flow may be “exhausted to zero” by the end of the year as some companies struggle to get financing for projects, said Chen.
2012年开发商也许要面对最为艰难的一年，瑞士联合银行集团的中国股市投资策略领导陈丽说。她还说到年底他们的资金流动也许会耗尽为零，因为一些公司努力为其项目筹集资金。
Greentown China Holdings Ltd. (3900), the biggest builder of the eastern Zhejiang province, is in discussion to sell more of its projects to raise cash, Chief Financial Officer Simon Fung said in a phone interview last month after it sold its stake in a site on Shanghai’s historic Bund for 1.04 billion yuan. Its contracted sales fell 38 percent to 35.3 billion yuan last year. Trust Loans
中国绿城集团有限公司（3900），浙江省东部最大的建筑商，正讨论要卖出更多的项目以筹集资金，在它以10.4亿元在外滩某地卖掉了它的股份之后，财务总监西蒙.方在上个月的一次电话采访中说。它的合同销售从去年的353亿元下降了38%。 信托贷款
Tighter credit conditions led some developers to seek out more expensive forms of financing, including offshore bonds and onshore trust companies last year.
紧缩的信贷状况使一些开发商寻找更昂贵的融资方式，包括去年的海外债券和陆上信托公司。
Trust loans are usually debt that’s repackaged into investment products and sold to retail investors, and the loans are typically funded by banks or the investors themselves. The interest rates can vary from 10 percent to 30 percent, according to Samsung Securities (Asia) Ltd.
信托贷款通常是指那些重新包装成为投资商品并出售给散户投资者的借款，这些贷款往往是银行或者投资者自己来资助的。按照三星证券（亚洲）有限公司所说，利率从10%到30%不同。
“The worst time will be the end of the first quarter or the second quarter because some non-listed developers will be forced to cut prices to get capital quickly,” said Eva Lee, a property analyst at UBS.
“最糟糕的时间将是第一季度末或是第二季度，因为一些没有上市的开发商将被迫降价以迅速得到资金，”瑞士联合银行的房产分析师伊娃.李说。
Smaller developers such as Agile Property Holdings Ltd. (3383), trying to meet sales targets at the end of 2011, rushed to sell projects and cut prices to achieve their forecasts, said Alan Jin, a Hong Kong-based analyst for Mizuho Securities Asia. Agile, in which JPMorgan Chase & Co. has a 4.75 percent stake, reported December sales almost doubled from November. Falling Prices
诸如雅居乐地产等试图在2011年底达到销售目标的小开发商，急着出售项目并降价价格以达到预测目标，瑞穗证券亚洲的香港分析师阿兰.金说。拥有摩根大通公司4.75%股份的雅居乐，报道说从12月的销售量是11月的两倍。价格下跌
Prices are sliding as the government curbs begin to be felt in less affluent cities. In the eastern city of Wenzhou, where a credit squeeze on smaller businesses prompted a visit and pledge of financial aid from Premier Wen Jiabao in October, prices fell 1.9 percent in December from the previous month and 6.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the data yesterday.
当一些欠发达的城市开始感受到政府的抑制政策时，价格就开始下滑。在温州西部，信贷紧缩在温家宝总理10月份访问的和给予资金援助的小企业中，昨天的数据表明，12月份价格相对于上个月下降了1.9%，相对于去年下降了6.9%。
Home sales last year rose 10 percent, the slowest pace since 2008, according to data released on Jan. 17. In 2008, China’s home sales retreated for the first time since the 1998 privatization of the housing market, dropping 17 percent.
据1月17日发布的数据，去年家庭住房销售量上涨了10%，这是2008年以来增长最慢的速度。2008年，中国的家庭住宅销售量自1998年住房市场私有化以来第一次下降，下降幅度达17%。
The government may ease the property curbs as early as the middle of the year as an oversupply may be a “disaster” for developers, said UBS’s Chen. Supply will peak at 1.5 times to 1.6 times demand, Chen said.
政府也许能在这一年中期尽早地放松对房产市场的抑制，因为过度供给可能是开发商的“灾难”，瑞士联合银行的陈先生说。陈还说，供应将会达到最大值，是需求的1.5至1.6倍。
“I don’t see the physical market recovering before the first quarter,” said Kenny Wu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at JI- Asia Research Ltd. “Developers are watching the direction of the government policies, and may put more properties on the market after seeing signs of easing.” Not Bad
“在第一季度之前，我看不到现货市场的恢复，”霁-亚洲研究有限公司的香港分析师肯尼.吴说。“开发商正在静观政府政策的走向，在看到放松迹象之后可能会往市场放出更多的财产。”
Still, China’s developers have so far withstood the government’s efforts to prevent an asset bubble. Sales rose an average 16 percent at the country’s top 20 developers from 2010, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd. Vanke’s sales climbed 12 percent last year and exceeded 100 billion yuan for a second consecutive year.
据麦格理证券公司的统计，至今中国的开发商一直顶着政府防止资产泡沫的措施。2010年，国家20强开发商的销售量平均上涨了16%，去年万科集团的销售量上涨了12%，连续第二年达到了1000亿元。
The measure tracking property stocks on the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) climbed 1.4 percent as of 11:01 a.m., extending its advance since the start of the year to 3.2 percent, compared with the benchmark measure’s 3.9 percent gain.
到上午11:01为止，上证综指（SHCOMP）跟踪地产股的措施攀升了1.4%，与基本衡量3.9%的利润相比，自今年起预售数量增长到了3.2%，
“The market was not bad last year,” said Jeffrey Gao, a Shanghai-based property analyst at Macquarie Securities, who said he expects policies to be loosened “marginally.” “The real test will be this year, especially the first half will be even tougher.”
“去年市场不是很糟糕，”麦格理证券的上海房产分析师杰弗瑞.高说，他说他盼望出台一些轻微放松的政策，“今年将进行真正的检验，尤其是前半部分将更加强硬。”
The biggest developers have yet to set official sales targets for 2012, with most indicating transactions will be little changed or grow as much as 20 percent, according to BNP Paribas Securities SA. UBS said it expects developers to set sales targets 10 percent to 15 percent higher than last year.
根据法国巴黎银行的数据，最大的开发商已经为2012年设定了官方销售目标，最富指示性的交易几乎不会改变或者以20%的速度增长。瑞士联合银行说它期望开发商们设定的销售额比去年高10%至15%。
“I’m sure developers will cut prices pretty aggressively this year,” said Lee Wee Liat, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at Samsung Securities, in a phone interview. “It’s not about margin any more but how do you generate cash to sustain yourself.” He said he expects China home prices to drop 15 percent this year with bigger declines in affluent or so-called tier-one cities.
“我确信今年开发商们将大幅度地降低价格”三星证券公司的一位香港房产分析师在一次电话采访中这样说。“这不再是利润的问题，而是你如何获得资金来维持自身。”他说他期望今年中国房产价格将下降15%，富裕大城市和所谓的三线城市会有更大的降低。
--Bonnie Cao. Editors: Linus Chua, Andreea Papuc
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Bonnie Cao in Shanghai atbcao4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andreea Papuc at apapuc1@bloomberg.net
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/278465/247090
