Wednesday, 1 August 2012

国家利益:默克尔与欧洲的对决

译者 Siu1989

Has Germany declared war on Europe? Or has Europe declared war on Germany? Speaking to members of the Free Democratic Party, her coalition partner, German chancellor Angela Merkel announced that euro bonds would never be created "as long as I live."

德国已经对欧“宣战”了吗?还是说反过来?德国总理默克尔对其盟友自由民主党成员讲话时宣称,只要她活着,就不可能有欧元债券。

Merkel's remarks created a flurry of fresh consternation among her critics, both in Germany and abroad, as everyone tries to puzzle out whether she really means it or is just bluffing. In part, Merkel is trying to shore up her bona fides at home, especially with the Free Democrats, a classically liberal party that represents industry and views the idea of pooled debt—which is what a Eurobond would represent—with horror. The Free Democrats surely would rather see Greece and other countries depart the euro before the German taxpayer has to absorb the losses accumulated by its once-cherished euro partners down south.

默克尔的回应在其国内外的批评者中间引起了新一轮的惊慌和骚动,所有人都试图辨别她是言副其实,还是虚张声势。一方面,默克尔试图在国内,尤其是向德国自由民主党展现自己的真诚善意。德国自由民主党是一个古老的自由主义政党,代表了工业利益,并视合并债务如瘟疫——这也是欧元债务所代表的意图。德国自由民主党当然很希望希腊和其他国家离开欧盟,不然德国纳税人就要被迫承受昔日盟友拖欠下的损失。

The Social Democrats and the Greens, by contrast, are criticizing her refusal to contemplate euro bonds. They want to become financially bonded to Germany's European partners, or at least say they do, as long as they themselves are not in power. But as an electoral issue, it is a nonstarter. The Germans don't view pooling debt as a way to emancipate Europe. They view euro bonds as representing permanent euro bondage. Malte Lehming, the opinion editor of the Berlin daily Der Tagesspiegel, says, "Thank God we have Merkel. The Euro bonds and calls for more spending represent a failed Keynesianism. Things are going well for us economically. If we had spent hundreds of billions more, what would it have brought us? More debt." Lehming views France's latest stimulus with contempt: "Building more roads creates jobs in the short-term. But it does not create long-term economic activity."

与此相反,社会民主党和绿营批评默克尔拒绝正视欧元债券。他们希望能成为欧盟友邻的债务分担者,至少口头承认一下,只要不要让他们负责就好了。但从选举意向来看,他们早已是过去时。德国人民并不把分担债务视为解放欧洲的良策。他们认为欧元债务代表了无尽的束缚。明镜日报编辑的马耳他·雷明表示:“感谢上帝我们还有默克尔。欧元债务和扩大消费的提议简直就是失败的凯恩斯理论。从经济上来说,我们的状况还不错,但如果我们在花上上千万的钱,能给我们带来的只有更多的债务。”雷明认为法国最新的刺激方案是自取其辱:“多修路只能在短期内创造就业,但此举并没创造建设长期性的经济活动。”

The clash is clear. In Europe, the socialists want to follow the path of the Obama administration, which is to try old-fashioned stimulus. And if the stimulus does not stimulate, the response goes, then not enough stimulation took place in the first place. Merkel and British prime minister David Cameron see it differently. But Cameron really has no voice in debates over the euro. It is the doughty German chancellor who is holding out against the rest of Europe. To understand why Merkel feels so confident, you only need to look around Berlin, which is a vast construction site, a buzz of activity. There is no hint of an economic slowdown. Instead, a new Teutonic colossus is arising in the heart of Europe, one that is not dependent on its neighbors. They need Germany more than Germany needs them. Even the burden of the historical past, which largely dictated former chancellor Helmut Kohl's push for the euro, is ebbing away. A new Germany is emerging.

目前,冲突激烈。在欧洲,社会党人希望跟随奥巴马政府的道路,也就是采用旧式的刺激方案。反对的意见是,若此举不甚成功,那么一开始就没做出足够的刺激。默克尔和英国首相大卫·卡梅伦持不同意见。但卡梅伦在欧盟是没有发言权的,因此只能靠强硬的德国总理对抗整个欧盟。默克尔之所以如此强硬,也不难理解,你只要看看柏林周围大量的,欣欣向荣的工程建筑,全然没有经济滞缓的迹象。相对的,一座新的日耳曼人的巨人形象在欧洲心脏部位树立起来。他们不需要依赖欧盟邻国,相比之下,欧盟却更需要德国。甚至那些陈年旧事,大部分是由前总理赫尔特·科尔口头推进欧元建设,也逐渐消退了。一个新的德国在崛起。

Whether European Union president Herman Van Rompuy will be able to overrule Merkel is questionable. The latest European summit was suppposed to be the one that solved this problem. But all along the incentive for Germany has been to play out this crisis as long as possible, which means that more lofty-sounding declarations will emanate from Brussels without curing any of the ills afflicting Europe. Whether those ailments can be quickly treated is increasingly dubious. Spain is announcing that even the private highways it built have turned out be be commerically unviable. Cyprus, headed by a communist, wants a bailout.

欧盟主席赫尔曼·范龙佩是否能否决默克尔还有待商榷。最新的欧盟峰会本应该解决这个问题,但随着对德进行的,有关危机的持续刺激,类似这样倨傲的言论将继续从布鲁塞尔传出,而使欧洲陷入困境的问题却一点得不到解决。这些小毛小病能否快速解决愈发可疑:西班牙声明因为经济原因,他们无法独立建造私人公路,由共产党领导的塞浦路斯也希望紧急救助。

Small wonder that Merkel and the Germans wish in their heart of hearts that they would all go away. Germany is learning what it feels like to be America—powerful and resented. That is the price of success. But so far, it seems to be one that the Germans appear more than ready to pay. Germany has become the land of the 1 percent, and the rest of Europe is the 99 percent. They will have to get used to it. Germany already is.

很少有人认为默克尔和德国真心希望他们(希腊等国)离开欧盟。德国吃过像美国那样的苦头——强大,但被当靶子怨恨——那是成功的代价。但目前有一点,德国似乎必须准备好应对。德国势头正盛,并公开与欧盟唱反调,这是欧盟其他国家必须适应的,而德国已经适应了。



from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/343330/305128