Info Aggregator: 路透社：中国欲大力实行经济体制改革

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

路透社：中国欲大力实行经济体制改革

译文简介：中国高层已要求其智囊团起草近几十年来最大规模的经济体制改革草案，此次改革旨在削弱国企实力、放宽利率和汇率自由。

原文地址：http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/21/us-china-economy-reforms-idUSBRE89K0GS20121021

原文作者：Kevin Yao

原载：路透社

翻译：袁慧

(Reuters) -China’s top leaders have asked
policy think-tanks to draw up their most ambitious economic reform proposals in
decades that could curb the power of state firms and give more freedom to the
setting of interest rates and the yuan currency.

中国高层已要求其智囊团起草近几十年来最大规模的经济体制改革草案，此次改革旨在削弱国企实力、放宽利率和汇率自由。

But after almost 10 years of delay to
painful structural reforms by the outgoing leadership, some of the authors of
the proposals told Reuters they fear a nascent rebound in economic growth could
derail the recommended agenda.

但由于该改革困难重重，推迟了近十年，一些草案作者告诉记者，他们担心初期的经济回弹会使改革步伐偏离正轨。

“China is approaching a stage
when the government must embrace more fundamental reforms,” said Shi
Xiaomin, vice president of the China Society of Economic Reform, a think-tank
under the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planning
body.

“中国已经到了要进行更深层次的改革阶段，”中国社会经济体制改革研究会副会长石小敏说。他同时也是国家发改委（国家经济计划主体）智囊团之一。

China’s
once-in-a-decade leadership change will be finalized next month at the ruling
Communist Party’s 18th congress, which opens on November 8.

中国领导层将在11月8日召开的“十八大”进行换届。

The congress convenes as the economy heads
for its weakest annual growth rate in at least 13 years after three decades of
near 10 percent annual expansion in the wake of sweeping reforms launched by
former leader Deng Xiaoping.

“十八大”的召开恰逢13年来中国经济增长最低点。在此之前，邓小平领导的改革开放使其经济以近10%的速度持续增长了30年。

Reuters interviewed five policy advisers
involved in drawing up the reform proposals. They said the order for the agenda
came from members of the State Council, or cabinet, although they declined to
give specifics for fear of repercussions.

本社采访了5位起草该草案的政策顾问，他们称该命令是由国务院下达的，但他们拒绝透露细节内容，以免造成广泛影响。

Significantly, planning
sources said cabinet members had signaled an interest in seeing proposals
from policy advisers outsideBeijing,
in the provincial hinterland, implying that a nationwide consensus is being
sought on the content and timetable for painful structural reform.

值得注意的是，计划发起者称，国务院有兴趣看到地方草案，这说明全国范围内的统一意见将体现在该改革的内容和时间表上。

High on the list drawn up by the advisers
is how to contain the government’s meddling in the economy and clip the wings
of more than 100,000 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) which enjoy enormous
privileges, including preferential access to bank lending and government
contracts.

草案的最大目的就是限制政府对经济的干预，修剪国企羽翼。中国拥有超过10万家国企，享受多重特权，包括优先得到银行贷款和政府合同。

Other reforms include allowing the market
to set the cost of bank credit, land and various natural resources.

改革还包括允许市场自行调节银行信贷、土地和自然资源的价格。

Credit is currently basically allocated by
the central government. It tells state-backed banks how much to lend and when -
mainly to other big state-controlled businesses and projects. Meanwhile all
land and basic resources are owned by the state, with private ownership limited
to temporary leased rights to usage.

目前，信贷主要由中央政府分配，决定国有银行放贷数目和时间，且主要向国有大型企业、项目放贷。同时，所有的土地资源和基础资源也被国家控制，个人只能暂时租用。

Analysts say reform of these two areas
would bring fundamental change toChina’s economic structure, even
more so than making the yuan currency more convertible – also on the table as
part of a package of proposals to liberalize capital markets and boost the
yuan’s use in global trade settlement.

分析者称，这两方面的改革将彻底改变中国的经济结构，更增加了人民币汇率的浮动性，草案也表明要开放资本市场和促进人民币在全球贸易结算的作用。

Reform to China’s complex tax structures,
under which the central government commands the lion’s share of receipts while
local governments do most of the spending, is needed if serious progress is to
be made cleaning up local government debt that stood at 10.7 trillion yuan
($1.7 trillion) at the end of 2010.

中国当前的税收结构是中央政府收入最多，地方政府花销最大。因此，要进行税收改革，必须要还清地方政府截止2010年底10.7万亿元人民币的债务。

“I think a consensus on reforms has
been formed at the central level, even though people may have different
considerations on when and how to implement reforms,” said Wang Jun,
senior economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, a
top government think-tank in Beijing.

“我认为中央在改革方面已经达成共识，虽然人们在改革的时间和形式上有不同看法，”中国国际经济交流中心高级经济学家王军说。

–

UNFINISHED BUSINESS

未完成的任务

Experts say Chinese leaders must unlock fresh growth potential and put the economy on a more sustainable path to avoid the “middle-income trap”, where wealth creation stagnates as market share is lost to lower cost competitors and the attainment of high-income country status stays out of reach.

专家称，中国领导人必须释放新的增长潜能，并引导经济步上更加可持续的发展轨道，以避免掉入”中等收入陷阱”，即财富创造停滞不前，市场份额被成本更低的竞争对手抢走，但距离高收入国家仍有很大差距。

The World Bank says China’s GDP per capita was $5,500 last year, versus $22,400 in South Korea, $34,500 in Hong Kong and $46,200 in Singapore, which all avoided the middle-income trap.

世界银行称，中国去年人均国内生产总值(GDP)为5,500美元，韩国、香港和新加坡分别为22,400美元、34,500美元和46,200美元，这三个经济体均躲过了中等收入陷阱。

There has been soul searching among Chinese academics about the 4 trillion yuan ($640 billion) stimulus package unveiled in late 2008, which led to excessive investment in white elephant projects, created mountains of local government debt and sent house prices rocketing in big cities.

中国学术界一直在研究2008年底出台的4万亿元人民币（6,400亿美元）刺激措施到底意义何在。刺激计划导致政府工程项目投资过度、地方政府背上沉重债务，而且推动大城市房价飙升。

The stimulus helped state-owned firms stage a comeback at the cost of private businesses.

这些刺激举措帮助国有企业复苏，却以牺牲民间企业为代价。

SOEs have repeatedly fought off Beijing’s plans to get them to pay higher dividends to state coffers and have sought to delay reforms on income distribution systems, which could imply capping hefty wages in monopoly sectors, government sources say.

政府消息人士称，国有企业多次力抗政府提高国企红利上缴比例的计划，并寻求拖延收入分配体系改革进程。收入分配改革可能意味着要限制垄断行业的高额薪资。

The reforms aim to require SOEs to pay more dividends to the government to meet a funding shortfall in social welfare.

政府希望通过提高国有企业的红利上缴比例，来填补社保基金缺口。

“We could see serious problems if we don’t reform,” said Zuo Xuejin, head of the Institute of Economics at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which advises the local government in China’s financial hub.

“我们不改革会面临很多严峻的问题。”上海社会科学院经济研究所所长左学金表示。

Still, some government advisers fear signs of a recovery in the economy could ease the pressure to act.

不过一些政府顾问担心，经济复苏的迹象可能会缓和采取行动的压力。

China’s annual economic growth slowed to 7.4 percent in the third quarter from 7.6 percent in the second – the seventh consecutive quarter of slower expansion, but government officials have flagged signs of a modest rebound in September.

中国经济同比增速从二季度的7.6%减缓到三季度的7.4%，连续第七个季度放缓，但政府官员已经宣示了经济在九月份小幅度反弹的迹象

Industrial production, retail sales and investment data were all slightly ahead of forecasts in September and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was strong, suggesting the worst may be over and the world’s No.2 economy will pick up in the final quarter.

且工业、零售销售和投资数据略微超出预期，季度环比增速已经加快，凸显经济探底企稳态势，预计四季度经济将回升。

“They may have to change if there is an economic crisis, but they may choose to muddle through if the economy recovers,” said an economist with a top government think-tank in Beijing, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

“如果发生经济危机，他们可能就不得不做出改变；但是如果经济复苏，他们可能会选择应付过去。”北京一位政府高层智库的经济学家说，但他不愿具名。

TRAJECTORY OF CHANGE

改革的轨迹

Past changes tend to support the anonymous economist’s view.

Deng Xiaoping launched economic reforms in the late 1970s to rescue an economy on the verge of collapse after Mao Zedong’s disastrous Cultural Revolution.

He made his famous tour of southern China in 1992 to jumpstart the second stage of reforms when the economy nosedived in the aftermath of the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown. And sweeping market measures spearheaded by former Premier Zhu Rongji were introduced after the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s.

Chinese leaders have acknowledged that three decades of 10 percent average annual GDP expansion are over and that the economy needs fresh drivers, analysts say.

In February, the World Bank said in a report with the cabinet think-tank, endorsed by presumptive-premier Li, that Beijing must implement deep reforms to avert a crisis.

世界银行在2月发布报告称，北京政府必须落实深度改革来避免危机。

The World Bank said China’s annual economic growth may slow to 5 percent a year by 2026-2030, from 8.5 percent in 2011-2015.

世界银行称，2011-2015年中国经济年增率料为8.5%，世银报告称到2026-2030时可能减缓至5%。

The mainstream view in Beijing is to blame the global financial crisis for China’s slowdown, which also reflects diminishing gains from past reforms and market opening spurred by China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation a decade ago.

Even fresh reforms may not deliver a swift turnaround.

但即便实施新的改革，可能也无法产生立竿见影的效果.。

“The easiest part of the reforms were carried out in the past 30 years, so we don’t have many areas where reforms can deliver quick results,” said Zuo at the Shanghai think-tank.

“我们国家经过30年改革，非常容易改的东西都已经改了，目前剩下的非常容易的能有立竿见影效果的改革不是太多。”上海社科院的左学金说。

—-

话说的都没错
但问题是改革这事不是写几个草案就行的
而且现在这个局面下谁能推动改革，都是未知数

只要还有贸易顺差的话自由货币政策下人民币要升值
全世界都知道人民币是强势货币
而正是因为有央行对人民币的控制这汇率的提升才转嫁到通涨上面去了

中国要放开汇率首先要取消汇管
而这个汇管一取消好多人就要骂中国有钱人赚钱都汇出去国外了
贪官污吏的钱出国更容易了

这是彻底变成世界第二大资本主义国家了？

嘿嘿，终于从杀鸡取卵中醒悟过来了么？
当然指望他们脚踏实地开始发展还是太乐观了…

瓜分国企是更大的杀鸡取卵，在当前经济不安定的时候还要搞这种动作无异于赌博
中产阶级的消亡是历史规律，本来就不可能存在均贫富的市场经济路线，除非倒退50年。不过现在倒退50年手里有钱的必然不答应，要跟你造起反来也是他们为主，非常难搞，所以中央现在是两头不讨好，这是没办法的事情
急于求成就是现政府最大的问题所在，邓自己都说了初级阶段100年，这前半段才刚过半就着急往修正主义的陷阱里跳不是正遂了欧美的意了么

这些改革应该及早着手才对，但是只有到了不好的时候，才有动力改革
国企又不肯分国民红利，又要垄断，根本是劫持国民为自己谋福利的私企。改革的说法也是有进有退，拆分，红利。

中央主导的改革要面对国企和事业单位以及地方政府的阻力；同时，它本身还有自利趋势，很难做到减税、调整分税制、缩减审批。

“草案的最大目的就是限制政府对经济的干预，修剪国企羽翼。”此次改革，政府会约束自己，国民也不应该把经济增长的期望放在政府身上。对政府应该多关心预算、税收、基本保障福利之类的，相信国民自己创造的经济活力。

国企有不少问题是不错，但也没有到劫持国为自己谋福利的地步，进退拆分都是假的，有些项目国家不松口的，你连块肉末都抠不下来，别说红利什么的了，说到底还是老百姓自己觉得自己缺钱，然后把问题怪到国企头上罢了

国企这个不可能有大动作，今年初影帝的喊话，国资委和某些国企都告到老爷子们那里去了。
国企的处理思路目前听闻的是
1，加强管理和约束。
2，做到有进有退，一些领域可以退出给民企，一些领域要做大做强
3，红利和利润上缴要进行再分配。

要求国有企业上缴更多的税金和利润以减少私有企业在社会支出方面的负担、夸大城乡两元结构对中国收入差距拉大的作用等等，非但不会有益于中国经济和中国人民，反而会对中国造成极大危害，是给中国经济和中国人民的毒药。佐利克在世行报告里就提过这事情，路透社不过是帮他擦个屁股，国内很多公知对这事情高潮和很多媒体对三一大加鞑伐等等的原因也很简单，到时候经济崩溃了能享受最多好处的就是这帮拿国家公粮的二鬼子。
不过话说回来，因为急于求成的心态已经扩展到了中央，所以很难说十八大会开成什么样子，而且经济改革对一个在经济危机里逆势增长的国家来说简直就是挖个坑给自己跳，我觉得至少有些人还是看的很清楚的

不垄断的国企没必要拆分。也不是所有领域都可以进。这些和有进有退、垄断拆分不构成矛盾。不分红利的国企算什么国企？而且现实是社保亏空巨大，即使一步到位的延长退休，也解决不了。国企十多年几乎没分红利，也该为国民承担责任了。

笑话，没有信贷支持，非垄断行业的国企能搞出什么名堂？
国企的一切技术、管理优势都是建立在资本优势的基础上，而资本优势又是国家为后盾的银行信贷支持产生的。
国企想要搞个项目，立项做好了，打个报告，几十亿几百亿的长期低息贷款不过就是领导的一句话。所谓的技术、管理优势，怎么都能拿钱砸出来。
这种条件，原本就是为了与国际跨国行业巨头们竞争的。
小将们居然觉得和国内的作坊式私企是公平竞争，你们到底多看不起国家资本

有些是策略性垄断，这个还真不能拆分，当然你说操纵贸易影响市场经济整体平衡的那从一开始就应该拆，到现在还没拆的只能是牵扯太多利益，在十八大也不可能一下子干脆的给拆了，对痼疾而言在当前这个时间段下猛药是属于不智，慢慢消化又毫无办法，所以也就只能放着了
还有你真别说，10年开始分红的时候也有人骂的，说穿了还是个效率问题，你说国企入万亿只拿10亿红利出来，然后批判所有国企，拿大头的笑而不语，没拿大头甚至亏损的就苦不堪言。而拿大头的前面也说了，是痼疾，所以这还是一个恶性循环的问题。
社保亏空这真没办法，上头有贪，交的人也逐渐变少，延长退休的确解决不了，放开计划生育倒是可以解决，但随之而来的问题也是一大堆的，而光靠国企红利填补这个几亿人的无底洞貌似也不是什么好办法，反正到时候看十八大怎么说了

中国的社保上缴比例已经很高了，亏空仍然巨大。国企不上缴红利算什么国企？有特权的国民二大爷企业么。城乡结构的贫富差距有多么明显，就连农民工这样和市民差距很大的阶层的都能和农民拉开收入差距。

有人算过账，用国企红利来填可以填平。据说，这也是未来总理的决定。
亏损的企业自然不用上缴红利。上缴比例一直是按照经营情况分的。
现在改革当然不如顺风顺水的时候改革好，但是顺风顺水的时候更不会改。所以结论是永远不改，我们已经达到最优策略再也不调整了？

对，中国这种城乡结构是无解的，你就算国企上缴红利来填社保这个坑，城乡贫富差距依旧不会缩短，而且可以预见的会越来越大，但是政府并不是以劫富济贫为主的，不然大家回到计划经济一起吃大锅饭不就好了，还要改革开放做什么
前面说了，中产阶级最终会消亡，而贫富差距也会呈现不可逆转的持续拉大，在走资本主义的这条路的同时就应该做好这个准备，因为这个是自然规律所在。当然我也不是说不支持国企上缴红利，对有些国企不仅要狠狠的抽血，还要清查，不过当前搞这个事情就是给自己找不痛快，政府还没傻到那个份上

就是改革的时间段过了，现在改反而会出问题，我倾向于再观望一段时间，我估计政府里很多人也是这么想的，因为毕竟现在要改很多老人都得跳脚，到时候指不定给你政治局闹点什么事情出来，所以我估计李克强这话也只是说给老百姓听听安抚下情绪的。改革从来都是自上而下的，所以还是先看看上面态度如何吧，我们在这讨论再多上面不想动蛋糕那就屁用没有不是么

没那么回事儿。下一步政府工作计划据我观察就是给农民部分土地权，给农民工逐渐平权，增强市民的福利和保障。
预言社会一定会变坏，然后要求变得更坏而不改良，真是很奇怪的想法，理解不了。你期待的结局是什么？