SOUTH ASIA is about the least integrated part of the world. Neighbours supply just 0.5% of India’s imports, and consume less than 4% of its exports. India and Pakistan, mutually antagonistic, account for a fifth of all living humans, yet their bilateral trade is puny, at less than $3 billion a year. The main regional body, the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation, is an irrelevance. Diplomatic torpor usually reigns in the region: last week, when the elected president of one member country, the Maldives, was toppled in a coup, there was a resounding silence from the neighbours.南亚大概是世界上一体化程度最低的地区。印度从邻国的进口只占其进口总额的0.5%,而出口都邻国的商品还不到其出口总额的4%。互为敌国的印度和巴基斯坦,人口占全世界总人口的五分之一,而双边贸易少的可怜,还不到30亿美元。作为主要地区组织的南亚地区合作组织几乎无关轻重。外交上的麻木在该地区占统治地位:上周,南亚地区合作组织成员马尔代夫的民选总统在政变中被推翻,邻国表现出令人瞩目的沉默。
India, the regional superpower, is largely to blame. Though it is a democracy and has easily the biggest economy and armed forces in South Asia, it has rarely been a force for good. Instead it has treated the neighbours, by turns, with negligence and high-handedness.作为地区超级大国的印度在很大程度上应对此承担责任。虽然印度是一个民主国家,是南亚无可争辩的最大经济体,拥有最大的武装力量,然而这种武装力量很少用作善举。印度对其邻国一个接一个地采取藐视和专横的态度。
Ideology and size are largely to blame. Economic self-sufficiency—the doctrine that informed Indian policymaking for nearly half a century after independence—made co-operating with the neighbours unnecessary. And India’s size—its population is seven times that of its nearest neighbour, Pakistan—has encouraged bullying tendencies. It has meddled in Nepal’s politics, and in the early stages of Sri Lanka’s civil war it backed Tamil guerrillas. Even today the opposition in Bangladesh claims nefarious Indian influence, and Pakistan says its old foe is supporting separatists in the province of Baluchistan. It has offered no evidence for the claim. But past Indian arrogance makes neighbours ready to believe anything.在很大程度上是意识形态与国家规模的缘故。经济上的自给自足——独立后近半个世纪印度决策所遵循的理论——使与邻国的合作成为没有必要。还有,印度的国家规模——其人口为仅次于它的邻国巴基斯坦的7倍——也纵容了这种欺凌的倾向。印度一直干涉尼泊尔的政治,在斯里兰卡内战的初期,它支持泰米尔游击队。即使今天,孟加拉国的反对派宣称存在邪恶的印度影响,而巴基斯坦则认为其老对手支持俾路支省分离主义分子,但没有提供这种说法的证据。然而,印度过去的狂妄自大使邻国愿意相信任何说法。
This is an economic as well as a diplomatic problem. Lack of integration helps to keep South Asians poor. By one estimate, without barriers trade between India and Pakistan would grow nearly tenfold. Today the main border-crossing near Pakistan’s eastern city of Lahore is at times almost deserted. If educated Sri Lankans were allowed to work in India, they could get good jobs there instead of having to take menial work in the Gulf, thus easing a growing shortage of skilled Indian workers. A regional energy market could boost prosperity; and Indian engagement in the problem of water-sharing could reduce dangerous tensions on the issue.这既是一个经济问题也是一个外交问题。一体化的缺失使得南亚人更加贫穷。根据一项估算,假如印度和巴基斯坦之间没有障碍,那么双边贸易会增加10倍。今天,巴基斯坦东部城市拉合尔附近主要过境站有时几乎被遗弃。如果允许受过教育的斯里兰卡人在印度工作,他们一定会找到好的工作而不会被迫到海湾国家做又粗又重的工作,这样会缓解不断增加的印度熟练工人的短缺。一个区域的能源市场会促进繁荣,印度参与水资源分配问题会减少在这个问题上危险的紧张局势。
As a measure of India’s priorities, consider that the world’s second-most-populous country has no more diplomats than tiny New Zealand. By contrast, China has a huge and sophisticated foreign service, housed in sleek new embassies around the world. And it is partly with an eye to a rising China that India now shows signs of change.作为衡量印度政策优先程度的指标,想想世界上人口第二大国的外交人员数量竟然没有区区小国新西兰多。相比之下,中国拥有庞大而精明的外交队伍,住在遍布世界各地时尚新大使馆。部分地因为眼睛盯着正在崛起的中国,印度现在才显示变化的迹象。
Niceness contest善意竞赛
These days India is putting more effort into improving neighbourly relations (see article), and is dishing out aid to sweeten the air. The foreign minister, S.M. Krishna, vows never to meddle inside another country. This week the trade minister led a business delegation to Lahore. And for all the accusations of anti-Pakistan meddling in Afghanistan, Indian efforts are accomplishing some good there: training police, and building roads and electricity lines. All over the region, India is opening new consulates. It may even recruit more diplomats.近年来,印度正在加大努力改善与邻国的关系(参见正文),并且正在拨出援助来制造甜蜜的气氛。外交部长S·M·克里希纳(S.M. Krishna)誓言绝不干涉另一个国家的内政。本周贸易部长率代表团到达拉合尔。尽管有各种各样有关在阿富汗境内从事反巴基斯坦干涉活动的指责,印度的努力在那里也取得一些好的成效:培训警察,修建道路,假设电力线路。在整个地区,印度正在设立领事馆,甚至还可能招募更多的外交人员。
But there is much more that India could do. It should unilaterally boost regional trade by unclogging roads, and by building better ports and freight parks at its borders. Non-tariff barriers—including the one that insists Pakistani cement crosses the border only by train, not lorry—should go. And India could take lessons from other big emerging powers, such as South Africa and Brazil, on how to build relationships in the region. Elephants must learn to move carefully, for fear of causing damage in the neighbourhood.然而,印度还可以做更多的事情。印度应该通过疏通道路,在自己的边境上建设更好的港口与货运园区促进地区贸易。非关税壁垒——包括坚持巴基斯坦水泥过境必须通过火车,不允许汽车运输——应该废弃。印度在如何建立地区关系方面应该学习如南非和巴西这样的新兴大国的经验。大象必须学会小心谨慎地前行,以免造成邻国的伤害。
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