Wednesday, 9 November 2011

中国房价下跌

中国房价下跌

译者 WhyEd

BEIJING—A decline in China's property prices is picking up steam, suggesting Beijing has had some success in taming housing costs, while also raising concerns that prices could drop too far and fast when the rest of the world is relying on the country as an engine of growth.

于北京报道——最近中国房地产价格下降已逐渐形成趋势,表明北京方面在调控房地产价格上已取得了一定成效,但有关中国房地产价格是否下降的过多过快的忧虑也在逐步增加,尤其是现在全球其他国家正将中国视为全球经济发展的引擎。

House prices were flat or falling in a majority of China's top cities, weekly data released Monday show. The weekly data, though volatile, add to evidence that housing prices are headed downward after years of consistent increases.

据本周一发布的数据显示,大多数中国大城市的房价正保持稳定或有所下降。尽管每周公布的数据都有所变化,但仍显示出在经历的多年持续上涨之后,中国房价已呈下降态势。

Beijing has been trying to calm property prices for about two years in an effort to make housing more affordable and douse a possible catalyst for social unrest. Steps by regulators include tightening lending and putting tougher restrictions on buying homes.

北京方面已经作了近两年的努力以控制房地产价格,促使房价回复到合理水平并平息由房价过高所有可能产生的社会不稳定因素。调控房价的手段包括缩紧购房贷款并提高购房限制。

An unanswered question is whether China can gently let the air out of its real-estate bubble or whether the bubble will burst, undermining economic growth. With the European Union and U.S. struggling to kick-start their own economies, global growth depends increasingly on the health of the Chinese economy, the world's second-largest.

但中国是否能够逐步释放房地产泡沫的压力,抑或房地产泡沫将破灭并影响经济发展仍是未知数。当欧盟和美国正努力提振本区域的经济时,全球经济发展正越来越多的依赖于全球第二大经济体中国的经济健康和稳定。

Beijing's top officials say they plan to stay the course. "I will especially stress that there won't be the slightest wavering in China's property-tightening measures—our target is for prices to return to reasonable levels," Premier Wen Jiabao said in a speech on Sunday in Russia.

来自北京的高级官员表示,对于房价的调控仍将持续。“在这里我特别要强调,对于房地产一系列的调控措施,决不能有丝毫动摇,我们的目标是要使房价回归到合理的价格。” 温家宝总理在周日在俄罗斯发表的一个演讲中说。

Real estate is a major driver of growth in China and a big source of demand for steel and cement, as well as of domestic demand for manufactured goods such as furniture. As much as 25% of the Chinese economy may be tied up in real estate and related industries, according to analysts. Ordinary Chinese frequently invest in real estate, so a sharp downturn could batter their savings.

房地产是中国经济增长的主要动力之一,并且是钢铁和水泥的需求量,以及家具等工业品国内需求量的重要影响因素之一。据相关分析人士称,中国经济中可能有多达25%的比重与房地产及相关行业有着紧密联系。中国老百姓经常进行房地产投资,因此如果房地产价格大跌将会对他们的财产造成重创。

Prices in the major southern cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou are down from their levels at the start of the year, according to data released by the China Real Estate Index System.

根据中国房地产指数系统公布的数据,中国南方的主要城市上海和广州的房产价格与年初的价格相比已经有所下降。

Prices fell by 0.23% nationally in October compared with September, faster than the 0.03% drop posted in September from August, according to data from the same index.

同样根据来自中国房地产指数系统的数据,全国范围内10月份的房价降幅为0.23%,高于9月份的0.03%。

In Shanghai, China's business capital, average prices for new residential real estate in many parts of the city are under asking prices for existing homes, according to Shanghai Urban Real Estate Surveyors-Appraisal Co., a consulting firm.

据上海城市房地产评估公司(Shanghai Urban Real Estate Surveyors-Appraisal Co.)称,在中国的商业中心上海的许多区域,新楼盘的平均价格已经低于二手房的报价。

Steeper declines may lie ahead. "The correction is not over; it has just started," J.P. Morgan said in a note Friday. "However, the likelihood of a nationwide collapse is very small…. Bursting the bubble is clearly not part of the policy objective."

未来可能会有更大幅度的降价。“房地产的调控并没有结束;它只是刚刚开始,”J.P.摩根上周五在一份报告中称,“尽管如此,全国范围内房地产市场崩盘的可能性非常小……房地产市场泡沫破灭显然不是政策调控的目的。”。

J.P. Morgan analysts forecast that prices nationally could fall 5% to 10% over the next 12 to 18 months, and as much as 20% in some major cities.

J.P.摩根的分析人员预言在未来的12到18个月内全国范围内的房地产价格将下降5-10%,一些大城市的的房价可能会下降20%。

Real-estate developers are having greater problems finding financing to complete projects or start new ones. Trust-investment vehicles—a key part of China's shadow lending system—have become a major source of funding for developers, after bank lending all but dried up this year.

目前房地产开发商项目建设和新开项目的融资难度越来越大。在银行贷款几近枯竭的情况下,信托投资工具作为中国委托贷款的重要渠道,已经成为了开发商融资的重要来源之一。

New financing provided by trust companies to property developers fell 17% in the third quarter from the second, after regulators stepped in to curtail trust lending to the sector, according to data issued Friday.

据周五发布的信息称,在监管机构介入并开始控制对房地产的委托贷款之后,由信托公司提供给开发商的新增融资在第三季度与第二季度相比下降了17%。

China's trust companies provided 113.9 billion yuan ($18 billion) of funding to property developers in the three months ended September, according to data on the China Trustee Association website, down from 136.7 billion yuan in April through June. In the first quarter, they provided 71.1 billion yuan in funding.

据中国信托行业协会网站上公布的信息,在第三季度中国的信托公司为开发商提供了1139亿人民币(180亿美元)的资金,较二季度的1367亿元人民币有所下降。在第一季度,信托行业为开发商提供了711亿元的资金。

Trust companies don't take on the risk of an investment themselves, but funnel funds from companies and wealthy individuals into a wide range of investments, including private equity, loans, direct stakes in property development, and even bonds and stocks.

信托公司将来自公司和富有阶层的资金通过各种渠道进行投资,包括私募股权投资,贷款,直接对房地产开发进行股权投资,甚至还包括债券和股票投资,但信托公司本身并不承担投资风险。

For the Chinese public, complaints still focus largely on housing affordability. But the price drops have also prompted some outcry. In late October, more than 40 people gathered at the showroom of developer Greenland Group in Shanghai amid heavy security to express frustration that properties had been discounted after they had made their purchases.

对于中国民众来说,房价过高的仍然是大家抱怨的主要对象。但是房价下降同样引起了一些抗议。在10月底,有超过40个人聚集在房地产开发公司绿地集团位于上海的一个房产展示中心内,他们前去抗议在自己购买后该楼盘开始打折销售,当时有众多的保安在维持秩序。

A real-estate agent with the company said discounts for 28% were on offer.

该公司的一位房产经纪人说该楼盘正在以7.8折销售。

"I bought an apartment here in September and now I've lost more than 400,000 yuan($63,000)," said a businesswoman in her 40s. "That is my hard-earned money, how can the developer be so ruthless?"

“我在9月份购买了这个楼盘的一套公寓,现在我已经损失了40万(6.3万美元)了,”一位40多岁的女商人说,“这都是我的辛苦钱,开发展怎么可以这么无耻?”

Greenland Group, a unit of China Overseas Holdings Ltd., said Monday that the protests have died down, but didn't provide other details.

作为中国海外集团有限公司的下属公司之一,绿地集团于周一宣布抗议活动已经结束,但没有吐露更多细节。

Property developers have long held back from cutting prices on new developments, hoping the government would blink first and relax restrictions on purchases. Instead, authorities have continued to increase pressure.

房地产开发商已经为是否降价出售新开发的项目而犹豫了很长时间,他们希望政府首先松口并放宽购房条件。然而事实正好相反,政府仍在增加调控力度。

The southern city of Zhuhai last week implemented a cap on the prices developers can charge for new housing, a temporary move that emphasizes the pressures officials face to cool the housing market.

中国南方城市珠海在上周对新开楼盘实行了最高限价,这个临时举措显示出了政府官员所面临的给房地产市场降温的巨大压力。

On Monday, Hangzhou-based property developer Greentown China Holdings Ltd. said it is considering disposing of some of its property projects to boost its cash flow, rather than cut prices.

总部位于杭州的绿城房地产集团有限公司于周一宣布,他们正在考虑出售几个房地产项目以增加现金流,但他们不会降价。

"Selling the projects is a better option than offering large discounts, which would tarnish our image with our end-customers," Chief Financial Officer Simon Fung said. He said disposing of projects outright is also faster than selling individual units at discounted prices.

“出售房地产项目不失为一个更好的选择,因为降价促销将有损于绿城中国在客户心目中的形象,”绿城集团CFO冯征说。他同时表示出售房地产项目比起打折出售单套住宅将更加高效的解决资金流问题。

China's banking regulator asked trust companies in September to report their exposure to Greentown, amid concerns about how some developers have funded their projects. Greentown executives say the company remains strong.

出于对一些房地产开发商筹措资金来源的担忧,中国银行监管机构在9月份要求信托公司报告他们为绿城集团提供的资金量。绿城集团的高管表示公司目前运营情况十分良好。

—Bob Davis and Tom Orlik contributed to this article.

——Bob Davis 和Tom Orlik 对本文亦有贡献。



from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/256605/230415