译者 MichaelWoo
China’s export growth slows amid European debt crisis
欧债危机令中国出口减速
The debt crisis that is sapping confidence and growth all over the euro zone is also squeezing the exports that make up a quarter of China’s output, threatening to undercut the global economy’s strongest engine at a critical time.
欧债危机不仅令整个欧元区信心受挫、经济削弱，而且还对占中国经济总量1/4的出口造成影响，使这台全球最强劲的经济增长引擎面临减速的威胁。
Overseas sales by Chinese exporters grew at the slowest rate in almost two years last month, as shipments to Europe slowed and exports to Italy, the new centre of the debt crisis, plunged 18 per cent from a year earlier, according to customs bureau data released Thursday. At the very same time, imports into China soared a more-than-expected 29 per cent on an annual basis.
据海关总局周四发布的数据显示，由于中国对欧洲的贸易减少及中国对意大利（欧债危机的新中心）的出口自一年多前下滑18%，上月中国海外出口增速创近两年来的最低水平。同时，中国的进口较去年同期上涨29%，增长幅度超出预期水平。
Analysts hailed the import strength as a sign of robust domestic demand in China, which has been under pressure for years to rebalance its economy in favour of exports from struggling developed nations like the United States, by letting its currency appreciate and through measures to encourage Chinese citizens to save less. Most, though, said the import gain may be temporary.
分析人士看好此次进口增长态势，称这表明中国的内需势头强劲。近年来，为平衡本国经济，中国一直处于重压之下。在扩大出口方面，中国与诸如美国等的发达国家就人民币升值问题争吵不断；为拉动内需，中国使出浑身解数鼓励本国民众少存钱、多消费。不过，大多数人认为进口增长只是暂时的。
Indeed, demand in China could soon get a further boost, as pressure mounts on policy makers in the Middle Kingdom to loosen controls on the flow of credit and to cut taxes. But there is pressure to take such steps because China, while not expected to see a “hard landing” from the almost double-digit growth rates it has seen since the global recession, is cooling. Government data earlier this week showed inflation and factory production slowing, and home sales dropping.
事实上，中央帝国（中国）的立法者面临放宽信贷限制和减税的压力越来越大，这不久将进一步拉动中国的内需。但若想推动实施这些举措，中国将举步维艰。因为自全球经济衰退以来，中国的经济基本保持两位数的增长，尽管今天正在降温，但它还不想看到本国经济“硬着陆”。本周早些时候，据中国政府公布的数据表明，本国通货膨胀水平正在降低，工业生产规模正在缩减，房产市场正在降温。
“No country is immune from this European crisis, or from any major crisis that happens around the world,” Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “We already see the slowdown in the numbers. Every country is feeling it.”
“没有哪个国家能逃脱本次欧债危机,抑或是任何席卷全球的重大危机的魔掌，”多伦多蒙特利尔资本市场部（BMO Capital Markets）经济师詹妮弗·李说，“我们已经从数据中看到了衰退的迹象，每个国家都能感知这一点。”
Some, of course, are feeling it much more than others.
Ms. Lee and others took some comfort in another report Thursday from the U.S. Commerce Department, which showed the trade shortfall of the world’s biggest economy shrank 4 per cent in September, as exports and imports both grew, the latter doing so for the first month since May.
Still, while import growth in the U.S. offers hope that demand in Canada’s chief export market is “not dead in the water,” as Ms. Lee put it, the pace of growth has slowed from a year ago, a reminder that with the U.S. jobs market stuck in a ditch, Americans “cannot be counted on to be the consumers of last resort.”
当然，有些国家对衰退的感知更强烈些。
周四，由美国商务部公布的另一份报告显示，九月份世界最大经济体美国的贸易缩水4%，进出口都有不同幅度增长，其中，进口是自五月份以来第一次出现增长。这份报告令李女士及其它经济师对全球经济形势舒了一口气。
然而，尽管美国的进口增长给加拿大带来了希望，诚如李女士所说，加拿大主要出口市场（美国）的需求“尚未溺水身亡”，但美国的进口增速自一年前就已经减缓，它提醒加拿大，美国的就业市场目前深陷泥沼难以自拔，“不要把宝压在美国消费者身上”。
China is picking up some of that slack, but soon may be doing so at a much slower pace as the European crisis erodes confidence and, as Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney argued this week, threatens a new crunch in global liquidity depending on how euro-zone banks de-leverage.
如今，中国正在采取紧缩性的限制措施，但由于欧债危机令市场信心不振，同时加拿大银行行长马克·卡尼本周辩称，如果欧元区银行去杠杆化举措不当，危机可能使全球资产流动性面临新的威胁，因此，不久中国有可能放慢实施其紧缩性措施的脚步。
David Madani, a Toronto-based analyst at Capital Economics, said his colleagues at head office in London are now predicting that a recession in Europe, China’s biggest export market, could last “a couple of years.”
经济研究机构Capital Economics驻多伦多分部的分析师大卫·迈达尼表示,根据伦敦总部目前的预测，中国最大出口市场欧洲的衰退将持续“数年的时间”。
While Europe accounts for just a fraction of Canada’s international trade, which is still dominated by the U.S., the region’s troubles are showing up in domestic data.
尽管美国是加拿大国际贸易的主要对象，欧洲市场只是其一小部分，但国内数据表明该地区正面临着麻烦。
A third report from Statistics Canada indicated the country ran a trade surplus in September – the first since January – as energy and auto exports continued their bounce-back from a dreadful second quarter marred by Japan’s natural disasters and lengthy maintenance shutdowns at oil refineries in Alberta.
加拿大统计局公布的第三份报告表明，九月份加拿大出现了贸易顺差——自今年一月以来首次出现——这是因为加拿大第二季度能源和汽车出口受日本自然灾害和阿尔伯达省炼油厂因维修导致长期关闭的影响大幅下滑后，出口不断强势反弹。
Total exports surged 4.2 per cent, with sales to the U.S. increasing by 5 per cent.
Exports to the European Union, meanwhile, fell by 4 per cent.
加拿大总出口增长4.2%，其中，对美国的出口增长5%。
同时，对欧盟的出口下滑了4%。
For Canada, though, it is the indirect channels that matter, like the effects that Europe’s troubles are having on the global financial system, and on consumer and business confidence in key export markets like the U.S. and, to a lesser extent, China.
不过，对于加拿大来讲，就像欧债危机对全球金融体制及对其主要出口市场美国、中国（稍次之）的消费者信心和企业信心的影响那样，间接渠道十分重要。
Despite what is shaping up to be a generally positive third quarter, few economists predict a rosy finish to 2011.
尽管加拿大第三季度出口总体上乐观，但没有哪位经济学家预测这一趋势能持续至2011年岁末。
Mr. Madani surmises that net trade, the difference between exports and imports, will contribute a whopping 5 percentage points to the third quarter’s annualized rate of economic growth, almost completely offsetting the subtraction from GDP growth in the previous three-month period.
迈达尼先生表示，净贸易，即进出口之间的差额，将为加拿大第三季度年经济增长率贡献高达5个百分点，这基本上抵消了上个季度GDP的亏损幅度。
The trick, he said, “is to look through that to the underlying trend, and we think the underlying trend is slowing.”
但问题是，他表示，“要透过数据看清潜在趋势，我们认为潜在趋势就是出口的增速正在减慢。”
With files from Bloomberg News
本文源于彭博新闻。
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