译者 lindaones
Britain's economy
英国经济
Into the storm
山雨欲来风满楼
Another recession is on its way. Even so, the government’s policies are broadly right
英国经济二次衰退即将到来。即便如此，英国政府的政策在大方向上还是正确的。
REMEMBER the Big Society? Free schools? Health reform? Nor does anybody else. With Britain having barely emerged from recession and the outlook darkening in Europe, all politics is now about the economy.
还记得大社会、免费教育和医疗改革吗？都快想不起来了吧。目前，英国经济尚未从上一轮衰退中完全复苏，加之欧洲前景越来越黯淡，所有的政治都完全在为经济服务。
The chancellor of the exchequer’s autumn statement, not guaranteed to capture the public interest, dominated the airwaves on November 29th and the front pages this week. George Osborne’s announcement raised two questions which will determine the future of both the country and the government. How bad are things likely to get? And is the chancellor making things better or worse?
本周，英国财务大臣发布了秋季财务报告，虽未刻意去吸引公众关注，但却占据了11月29日各大报章的头版头条。奥斯本（George Osborne）的报告引发了对两点问题的讨论，事关英国国家及政府的未来命运：一是经济到底可能会糟糕到何种程度；二是财务大臣所起的作用究竟是让情势好转，还是恶化？
Back towards the thunder
再陷风暴
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a newly established fiscal watchdog, provided Mr Osborne with the official answer to the first question. The OBR reckons that although growth will be much weaker this year and next than had been forecast in March, Britain will narrowly avoid a second recession. That sadly already looks too optimistic.
针对第一个问题，英国预算责任办公室（OBR）为奥斯本先生提供了官方答案。作为刚刚成立的独立的财政监管部门，预算责任办公室做出了判断，尽管今明两年英国的经济增长将大大低于今年3月预测的水平，但英国尚可以勉强躲过二次衰退。可惜，如今看来，这种判断过于乐观了点。
The OBR’s forecast assumes that the euro crisis can be resolved without too much fuss, which seems increasingly unlikely—and the uncertainty is pushing the euro zone towards recession fast. Across the continent banks are finding it hard to refinance their own debts cheaply (see article). They are also shedding assets at an alarming rate in order to meet EU capital-adequacy targets by next June. Britain’s banks have lent heavily to businesses and governments in the euro zone’s worst trouble spots, as well as to German and French banks. The threat of a severe credit shortage will force businesses across Europe to conserve their cash and make them cautious about spending on new equipment or hiring new workers. Add in the ever more severe budget cuts planned by euro-zone countries and the picture gets even stormier.
预算责任办公室预测的前提，是假设欧洲可以顺利解决欧债危机，而事实恰恰相反。不确定因素正在加速将欧元区推入经济衰退的深渊。放眼整个欧洲大陆，所有银行都面临着花大价钱为自家债券进行再融资的窘境。为了赶在明年6月前达到欧盟对银行资产充足率的既定目标，银行正纷纷以惊人的低价抛售手中的资产。英国的银行持有的公司债券和政府国债中，有相当大的比例来自于欧元区重度受困国；此外，其对德法两国银行的放贷数额也很大。在严重信贷短缺的威胁下，欧洲商人不得不节衣缩食，在购买新设备和雇佣新员工等方面精打细算。与此同时，欧元区各国政府的预算削减愈演愈烈。此情此景，真可谓山雨欲来风满楼。
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.
英国经济存在着很多自身问题，而家门口的欧债危机更令英国国内经济雪上加霜。目前，英国购买力匮乏，工资增长的速度尚不及通货膨胀速率的一半。本周，公共部门就业者进行了大罢工，以抗议政府养老金改革，因为在未来两年，他们的工资收入将被压榨。而房屋所有者也不情愿动用存款，尽管他们负债累累。这导致英国经济增长对国外需求产生依赖性。由于英国2/5的出口面向欧元区，欧元区的经济衰退必然会拖英国经济的后腿。伦敦的金融业曾经是英国最稳定的出口行业之一，但由于服务费和佣金接近枯竭，金融业也未能躲过裁员的命运。
The Bank of England is likely to raise its target for “quantitative easing” (bond purchases using newly created money) above the £275 billion ($431 billion) it agreed on in October. But even swift action seems unlikely to prevent the economy shrinking for at least two quarters (enough to count as a recession). The second dip of a “double-dip” ought to be shallower than the first because there are fewer excesses to work off than after a boom. But a cumulative fall in output of 1% is easy to imagine. And recovery after that will be a long, hard slog.
英国央行（英格兰银行）很有可能提高“量化宽松”（即使用新发行的货币购买债券）的目标，在10月份议定的27.5亿英镑（43.1亿美元）的基础上继续增加。但即便行动再迅速，看起来也无法阻止经济萎缩的发生，至少在未来两个季度是这样（这已经足以被称为经济衰退了）。双底结构的第二个底部应该会比第一浅一些，因为比起经济繁荣的尾声，二次见底时已跌无可跌了。而出现双底之后的经济复苏则将是一个漫长而艰难的过程。
Given the government’s lousy inheritance in 2010 and the suicidal nature of the euro zone’s leaders, it is hard to see how Britain could ever have avoided another dip. But what of Mr Osborne’s competence? Has the government’s budget-cutting strategy only made a bad hand worse? Has it been a “colossal failure”, as the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, attests?
面对英国政府在2010年留下的烂摊子和欧元区领导人大无畏的自我牺牲精神，我们实在是难以看到英国躲过二次衰退的希望。不过，奥斯本究竟能力如何？是否政府削减预算的策略只是让经济雪上加霜？是否真的如影子财长埃德·鲍尔斯（Ed Balls）声称的那样，这是一个“巨大的失败”呢？
No, it has not. Mr Osborne is certainly guilty of over-optimism in the past, especially claiming that an aggressive fiscal tightening would show immediate benefits by promoting growth, rather than depressing demand. But he was right to act in 2010 to make an early start in cutting the deficit. Left untackled, the budget deficit, which at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10 was larger than those of almost all other rich countries, would soon have undermined confidence in the government’s ability to service its public debt. That faith is all the more important because of Britain’s outsize banking sector.
非也非也。诚然，奥斯本曾经断言激进的财政紧缩政策可以立竿见影的刺激经济增长，而不会抑制需求，这种判断的确太过乐观了。但是，早在2010年他就开始削减赤字，这无疑是正确的。2009-10财年，英国的预算赤字占GDP的11.2%，高于任何其他富有国家，倘若他当时没有削减赤字，那么市场对政府的公债偿付能力的信心很快就会降低。鉴于英国银行业的超大规模，市场信心对于经济而言至关重要。
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year. The credibility won by such progress means Mr Osborne’s plan has helped secure the country the trust of both the credit-rating agencies and the bond markets. Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured, unlike France’s (see article). Only a handful of countries can borrow more cheaply over ten years.
在2011财年，赤字预计将回落到GDP的8.4%。赤字下降增强了政府的公信力，事实证明奥斯本的计划稳定了信用评级公司及债券市场对英国的信心。看样子，英国可以保住3A评级，而法国就很难了。现在，10年期国债收益率较低的国家已经寥寥无几了。
A little looser, please
再宽松一点吧，拜托
And what of his policies now? There, we reckon he could afford to have loosened more. The plans announced this week imply that public-spending cuts will now last until 2017, in part because the OBR reckons the economy’s growth potential is far more damaged than it had thought as recently as March, so there will be less growth to close the gap through increased revenues. Mr Osborne hopes to generate some growth by using private saving to pay directly for public infrastructure (see article) and he plans to use the savings made on current spending to boost capital spending on schools, roads and such like by £5 billion over three years.
奥斯本目前推行的政策又如何呢？我们觉得他完全可以推行更为宽松的政策。本周公布的计划说明，英国经济增长的潜力已经较3月预测时大大减弱，也就是说，可以用来弥补财政增收缺口的经济增长将会变少。奥斯本希望通过利用私人存款直接支付公共基础设施的方式刺激经济增长，他的计划是，在未来3年中，将50亿英镑的个人储蓄存款投入到学校、公路及其他基础设施项目上。
Mr Osborne could surely afford to do more capital spending without jeopardising Britain’s financial credibility. Infrastructure is hard to get right, but more targeted investment would add to the economy’s supply potential and provide a surer boost than the temporary tax cut that Mr Balls is advocating, much of which would be saved by anxious consumers. It would not be a threat to Mr Osborne’s main fiscal target or to the bond markets’ good faith. And although his scheme to guarantee bank bonds to foster up to £20 billion of small-business lending is a sensible use of the state’s still-sound credit rating, its success relies on the take-up by cautious banks and nervous small businesses. A small-business bank, capitalised with £2 billion of public money, would probably work better.
可以肯定的是，在不会危及英国信用的前提下，奥斯本完全有能力负担更大数额的消费。基础设施项目并非正确的选择，但是更多的投资计划不仅可以刺激英国的供应潜力，而且比起奥斯本提议的临时减税政策而言，还能对经济繁荣起到更好地促进作用，因为减税后增加的收入大部分还是会被焦虑的消费者存起来。此举并不会对奥斯本的主要财政目标及债券市场的良好信用产生威胁。尽管他打算通过对银行债券进行担保来促成高达200亿英镑的小额贷款，合理的利用了英国良好的信用评级，但是，此项措施要成功，必须要得到谨慎的银行和紧张的小额贷款人的支持才行。一家注资20亿英镑公众存款的小额信贷银行可能会将这项计划执行的更好。
So Mr Osborne has not got things completely right. But this government’s instincts have been saner than its big-spending predecessor’s. Mr Osborne was correct in his determination to tackle the deficit quickly. The notion that he has caused the coming recession is nonsense. More flexibility is now needed. But, sadly, all the options for Britain are pretty dark.
所以说，奥斯本没有做到尽善尽美。但是比起上一届铺张的政府，这届政府的直觉显得更为明智。奥斯本及时处理赤字问题的决定是正确的。那些认为是他引发了即将到来的经济衰退的看法纯属无稽之谈。现在需要的是更高的灵活度。不过，可惜的是，英国无论如何选择，前景都将相当暗淡。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/254696/239009
