Most global investors predict China will face a banking crisis within the next five years, paring their appetite for the nation’s shares and eroding confidence in its leadership, a Bloomberg Global Poll indicated.
Bloomberg的全球投票表明，全球大多数投资者预测中国将在未来五年内面临一场银行危机，他们对于国家股票的偏爱和对领导的信心减少了。
Sixty-one percent of respondents said they anticipate a crash in the financial industry by late 2016, and only 10 percent were confident China’s banks will escape trouble, according to the quarterly poll of 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers conducted Dec. 5-6.
根据12月5-6日的1097个订阅Bloomberg的投资者，分析师和交易员的季度投票，61%人回答说他们预测中国金融业将在2016年以前崩溃，只有10%的人相信中国银行业可以免于受难。
Evidence of slowing growth in China -- including the weakest manufacturing performance in more than two years, falling home sales and ebbing export growth -- has stoked concern that non-performing loans will climb in the world’s second-largest economy. The risk is a legacy of a record 17.6 trillion-yuan ($2.8 trillion) lending boom unleashed by Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009-2010 amid the global recession.
中国增长的减速的证据-包括两年来最差的生产表现，下降的房屋销售额，衰退的出口增长--都激发了人们对于这一世界第二大经济体不良贷款率攀升的关注。这一风险是胡锦涛总理在2009-2010年全球经济衰退中发放的17.6万亿元人民币借款纪录的产物。
“The deep-seated misallocation of resources, particularly in the real estate and banking sectors, will lead to a combination of political and economic instability,” says Lance Depew, managing director of UPI Management LLC in Santa Barbara, California, and a participant in the poll. “I expect further macroeconomic weakness and sub-par returns in the stock market for the foreseeable future.”
“深度的资源分配不当，特别是在房地产行业和银行部门，将导致政治和经济同时不稳定，”投票者Lance Depew，managing director of UPI Management LLC in Santa Barbara,California说
The MSCI China/Financials Index of shares has tumbled 22 percent this year, underperforming the broader MSCI China Index of equities, which is down 17 percent. China Life Insurance Co. (2628) has declined 32 percent and Bank of China Ltd. (3988) 30 percent, contributing the most to the financial index’s losses.
MSCI 中国金融股票指数今年已下挫22%，业绩低于中国广义的MSCI权益指数，该指数下跌了17%。中国人寿保险公司（2628）下降了32%，中国银行（3988）下降了30%，是导致金融指标的损失的最多的股票。
Flagging Enthusiasm
低迷的热情
Enthusiasm for Chinese stocks has flagged among Bloomberg users. In the latest poll, 21 percent called China one of the best places to invest over the next year. That was less than half the 44 percent who named China in an October 2009 Bloomberg survey.
在Bloomberg的使用者中，针对中国股票市场的热情降低了。在最近的投票中，21%的人认为下面一年中国是世界上最好的投资场所。这个数字不到2009年10月Bloomberg的调查中44%的人投票给中国的比例的一半。
Thirty-five percent of respondents said they expect China’s economic growth to slow to less than 5 percent from the 9.1 percent year-on-year pace recorded in the third quarter. Thirty- one percent anticipated “serious political or economic instability that stalls growth.” American investors were the most pessimistic, with 40 percent expecting a Chinese crisis.
35%的受访者说他们认为中国的增长速度在未来一年将从第三季度年增长9.1%的的速度减慢到少于5%。31%的人认为“严重的政治和经济问题将拖累增长速度。”美国投资者是最悲观的，40%的美国投资者认为中国将有一场危机。
A plurality of 46 percent of investors described the Chinese economy as “deteriorating” -- up from 38 percent in September -- compared with 40 percent who said it was “stable.”
占大多的46%的投资者形容中国经济正在恶化，今年九月这个数字是38%-同时有40%的人认为中国经济稳定。
Goldman’s Outlook
高盛的观点
The skepticism contrasts with the outlook of economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the International Monetary Fund, who predict China will avoid a growth slump while defusing inflation. Goldman Sachs, in a Dec. 1 report, projected the nation’s gross domestic product will rise 8.6 percent next year and 8.7 percent in 2013.
怀疑者反对来自高盛，国际货币基金组织的经济学家的观点，这些经济学家预测中国可以在摆脱通货膨胀的同时避免经济增长速度的猛跌。高盛在12月1日的报告中预测中国的国内生产总值将在明年增长8.6%，2013年增长8.7。
A relatively low central government debt burden gives Premier Wen Jiabao’s administration the fiscal wherewithal to address a jump in non-performing loans. The IMF estimates the government’s gross debt-to-GDP ratio at 27 percent this year, compared with 100 percent for the U.S. and 233 percent in Japan.
一个相对低的中央政府债务负担给温家宝政府财政资金去处理不良贷款的突然增长。国际货币基金组织预测中国政府的今年总体的债务和国内生产总值的比率是27%，而在美国这一数字是100%，在日本是233%。
The World Bank said last month that while China faces the risk of a “strong” impact from a real-estate correction, it has “ample” scope to cushion its economy. Policy makers have begun responding to the signs of a weakening outlook, with the People’s Bank of China last week lowering banks’ reserve requirements for the first time since 2008 to encourage lending.
上个月，世界银行说，如果中国面临着一个房地产业价格修正带来的重大的影响的风险，他们有充分的空间来使经济软着陆。政策制定者已经开始对经济变弱的迹象有所反应了，中国人民银行在上个月降低了银行准备金比率，这是中国政府自从2008年以来的首次鼓励借款的政策。
Best in Class
同类中最好的
“China, simply put, is the best managed major economy on the planet,” said Anthony Stephens, an equity trader with Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong and a survey participant.
“中国，简言之，是这个星球上管理的最好的主要经济体，”Anthony Stephens,一个香港渣打银行的权益类交易者和一个调查参与者这样说。
Most investors in the poll don’t anticipate China’s relative economic performance translating into broader influence that would displace the U.S. as the world’s preeminent superpower.
大多数投资者不指望中国相对的经济业绩转化为更大的影响力以替代美国作为全球超级大国的地位。
Forty-one percent of poll respondents said that the U.S. would remain militarily dominant even as the Chinese economy eventually overtakes it in size. An additional 27 percent said China would “never surpass” the U.S. as the top global force. Only 25 percent agreed that China would “inevitably replace” it as the No. 1 superpower.
41%的投票者表示即使中国的经济超过了美国，美国仍然拥有战争上的支配地位。更多的27%的人还表示，中国无法超越美国成为世界上最强的力量。只有25%的人认为中国将不可避免的超越美国成为第一大经济体。
President Barack Obama’s administration has sought to enhance the U.S.’s stature in Asia this year, an initiative Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described as a “pivot” toward the region after a decade of American focus on war in the Middle East. As part of the approach, the administration is seeking a free-trade agreement with Pacific nations including Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore, and last month enhanced its security ties with Australia.
今年，总统奥巴马政府已设法加强美国在亚洲的地位，美国国务卿希拉里形容为这是在美国十年来专注于中东战争后的一个地区"支点"。 作为方法的一部分，当局正寻求和亚太地区国家的自由贸易的协议，包括马来西亚、越南和新加坡，并且在上个月增强了其与澳大利亚的安全纽带。
U.S. in Asia
美国在亚洲
Global investors are skeptical of the U.S. effort, highlighted when Obama hosted the annual 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Honolulu last month and attended an East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia. Fifty-six percent said the campaign “will not enhance U.S. influence and end up antagonizing China,” compared with 30 percent who expect it to serve as an “effective counterweight” to Chinese power.
国际投资者对美国的努力表示怀疑，特别在上个月奥巴马在檀香山主办了一年一度的21国亚太经济合作首脑会议，参加一个在巴厘岛举行的东亚峰会的时候。56%的人表示这一运动“不会提高美国的影响并对抗中国”，同时30%的认为这个将成为中国力量的“有效抗衡”。
“China’s rising power and the United States’ traditional role are increasingly coming into conflict in the region,” said Michael Swaine, author of “America’s Challenge: Engaging A Rising China in the 21st Century” and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “These two countries have very different views on what sustains prosperity and stability.”
“中国日益强大和美国”地区传统的角色将面临更大的冲突” ，《美国的挑战：遭遇21世纪上升的中国》的作者和卡内基国际和平基金会的高级合伙人Michael Swaine说。“这两个国家对于什么维持繁荣和稳定有完全不同的看法”
Leadership Assessment
领导力评估
Investors this year have become less enamored of Chinese President Hu Jintao, with 47 percent saying they were optimistic about his leadership, compared with 38 percent who described themselves as pessimistic. In January, Bloomberg customers favored Hu by a 60 percent to 30 percent margin.
今年，投资者对于胡锦涛的支持减少了，47%的人认为他们对胡的领导表示乐观，而38%的认为他们是悲观的。在一月份，Bloomberg胡的支持率是60比30。
China is in the midst of a planned leadership shift that will culminate late next year with the 18th Communist Party Congress. The conclave, which occurs every five years, is likely to tap Vice President Xi Jinping as China’s next president and Li Keqiang, currently vice premier, as prime minister.
中国正在经历一场计划中的领导换届选举，最终结果将于明年底中共第十八届会议中产生。秘密选举会议每五年发生一次，很可能让现在的副主席习敬平成为下一人主席，现在的副总理李克强成为下一人总理。
Global investors are confident the new team will continue the shift toward private enterprise devised in the late 1970s by Deng Xiaoping. In the poll, 49 percent of Bloomberg customers said the Chinese leadership will move toward free markets, while 37 percent forecast a tightening of state control over the economy. Asian investors were most upbeat, with 55 percent anticipating further opening.
全球投资者对于新的领导团队将继续向私有企业倾斜的政策，这一政策是邓小平1970年提出的。在这个投票中，49%的Bloomberg的消费者说中国领导人将继续向自由市场转换，而37%的预告政府将会对经济有更加紧密地控制。亚洲投资者是最乐观的，55%的亚洲投资者预期更多的开放。
Among the tasks that may face the next government is clearing any wreckage left from a surge in non-performing loans. The IMF, in its first formal evaluation of China’s financial system Nov. 15, called for further moves toward a “market-based financial system,” including upgraded bank risk-management systems and additional skilled personnel for the central bank and regulatory agencies.
下一代政府将面临的任务中包括收拾任何不良贷款的残骸。IMF，在它11月15日对中国金融体系的第一次正式评估中，要求未来向“基于市场的金融体系”的改革，这其中包括升级银行的风险管理系统和在央行和监管机构增加更多的技术人才。
“Many government liabilities are hiding in the banking system,” says Yin-Chen Chang, a consulting associate at Waterland Securities in Taipei, Taiwan.
“很多政府债务隐藏在银行体系中，”台北 Waterland Securities的助理顾问Yin-Chen Chang说。
The Bloomberg Global Poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.
Bloomberg 的全球投票由Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based 公司管理，有上下3.0的百分点的误差范围。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/247172/238472
