译者 Shierzou
China's export growth slumps to lowest since 2009
中国的出口增长自2009年以来跌至低谷
December 11, 20112011年12月11日
China’s export growth slowed to the weakest pace since 2009, making the government more likely to further ease policies to sustain the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy.
自2009年，中国的出口增长降至疲软状态，使政府更有可能出台宽松政策以维持全球第二大经济体的发展。
Overseas shipments rose 13.8 per cent in November from a year earlier, the customs bureau said yesterday. Excluding distortions in January and February each year, that was the least since export growth resumed in December 2009. The trade surplus narrowed to $US14.5 billion from $US17 billion the previous month. Import growth slowed to 22.1 per cent.
海关总署昨日说，11月海外出货量比去年同期上升13.8%。这一升幅是排除每年1月和2月的失真数据，因自从2009年12月出口增长回升以来，1月、2月的增长是最低的。贸易顺差从上个月的170亿美元下降至145亿美元。进口增长放缓至22.1%。
Australia's economic vitality is increasingly tied to China, which currently takes about a quarter of Australia's exports. China is also the fastest growing major economy so a slowdown there will drag on global growth which is also being hampered by a stagnant Europe and weak US expansion.
澳大利亚的经济活力与中国的联系越来越紧密，中国目前约占澳大利亚出口额的四分之一。中国也是增长最快的主要经济体，因此其经济放缓将会拖累目前因欧洲的停滞发展和美国经济疲软受到重创全球的经济增长。
Europe’s debt crisis is capping China's exports just as Premier Wen Jiabao’s campaign to curb prices cools output. China may further lower reserve requirements for banks, reduce taxes for smaller companies, and boost spending on infrastructure, public housing and social welfare to spur growth after inflation fell to a 14- month low, HSBC Holdings Plc said.
汇丰控股有限公司认为，欧洲债务危机限制了中国的出口正如温家宝总理控制了物价上涨却导致产量萎缩一样。中国可能进一步降低银行存款准备金率，减少小企业税赋，促进基础设施的投资，大力投资公共住房和社会福利制度以在通胀率下降至14个月最低水平后刺激经济增长。
“The downside risk in China’s economy continues to rise,” said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. A reserve-ratio cut before year- end is “very likely” and the government may use tax rebates to support exporters, said Liu, who previously worked at the World Bank and Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
澳大利亚和新西兰银行集团驻香港经济学家刘利刚说：“中国经济下行的风险仍在增加”。之前在世界银行和香港金融管理局任过职的刘先生说，政府“极有可能”在年底下调存款准备金率。另外，政府可能实施出口退税措施以支持出口商。
November’s export growth compared with the 10.9 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 32 economists and a 15.9 per cent increase in October. The value of shipments last month was $US174.5 billion.
相比11月的出口增速，彭博社对32个经济体的调查得到的中位数估计值为中国11月的出口增速为10.9%，10月份为15.9%。上月的出口价值1745亿美元。
Europe slide
欧洲经济下滑
Exports to the European Union, China’s biggest market, rose 5 per cent from a year earlier, a quarter of the pace reported in July and August, customs data show. Sales to Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, fell 1.6 per cent last month from a year earlier and shipments to Italy dropped 23 per cent, the third straight decline.
海关数据显示与去年同期相比，中国向欧洲这个中国最大市场的出口量上升了5%，是7月和8月出口额增速的四分之一。上月向德国这个欧洲最大经济体的出口与去年同期相比跌1.6。上月对意大利的出口降23%，连续三个月下滑。
The increase in imports, which climbed to a record $US159.9 billion, compared with a median estimate of 18.8 per cent and a 28.7 per cent increase in October. The median forecast for the trade surplus was $US15.2 billion. The excess was $US22.9 billion in November last year.
进口量的增加已攀升至历史最高点1599亿美元，而中位数估值为18.8%，10月为28.7%。贸易顺差的预测中值为了152亿美元。去年11月份超额229亿美元。
Inflation cooled to 4.2 per cent last month as industrial output growth weakened, according to statistics bureau data released Dec. 9. In a more positive sign for officials, retail sales growth accelerated.
根据统计局12月9日发布的数据显示，随着工业产值增长走软，上个月通胀率下调了4.2%。对于政府来说更积极的信号是零售业销售增速加快。
The Politburo said the same day that China will maintain a “prudent” monetary policy and a “proactive” fiscal policy next year, after a meeting chaired by President Hu Jintao ahead of an economic work conference that the Economic Observer newspaper said may take place Dec. 12-14.
同一天，中央政治局说，中国将保持“谨慎的”货币政策和“积极的”财政政策这得在《经济观察报》称可能于12月12-14日召开的经济工作会议前由国家主席胡锦涛主持的一个会议之后确定。
Reserve-ratio cuts
下调银行存款准备金
“The government is leaving its boilerplate language on policy unchanged,” London-based Capital Economics Ltd. said in a note. “In practice, easing has begun.”
总部设在伦敦的资本经济公司在一份报告中提到“中国政府正在官方文件上宣传政策不变。实际上，宽松政策已开始执行了。
The People’s Bank of China lowered banks’ reserve requirements for the first time in almost three years effective Dec. 5 to encourage lending. Cuts in the ratio may be as frequent as one a month in the first half of next year as the economy’s slowdown sends a “strong signal” for further loosening, according to Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong-based economist for Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd.
从2011年12月5日起，中国人民银行在近三年来首次下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点以鼓励贷款。据瑞穗证券亚洲公司驻香港经济学家沈建光所说，因经济减速为更进一步实施宽松政策发出了“强烈的信号”，明年上半年可能每月下调存款准备金。
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell on Dec. 9 to its lowest level since March 2009 as commodity producers Jiangxi Copper Co. and Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co. slid. The gauge has declined for five straight weeks.
2011年12月9日由于大宗商品生产商江西铜业和铜陵有色金属集团公司下跌拖累上证综合指数跌至自2009年3月以来的最低水平。沪指已连续五周下跌。
Yuan forwards drop
人民币预期下跌
Investors have pared expectations for gains in the yuan, with twelve-month non-deliverable forwards dropping 0.5 per cent to 6.4130 per US dollar in the week ending Dec. 9. The spot rate for the currency fell 0.1 per cent to close at 6.3647 per US dollar in Shanghai.
投资者已对人民币的获利预期下降， 12个月的本金交割远期已下降。12月9日结束的那一周下降了0.5个百分点达到1美元兑换6.4130人民币。上海即时汇率下跌0.1个百分点，收盘时以1美元兑换6.3647元人民币。
China’s trade surplus, a source of friction with nations including the US, has dropped from a peak of almost $US300 billion in 2008 and the commerce ministry said last month that it may be as small as $US150 billion this year.
贸易顺差是中国与包括美国在内的其他国家发生贸易摩擦的一个根源。贸易顺差已从2008年的最高峰差不多3000亿美元下跌不止。而且上个月商务部说，今年可能跌至1500亿美元。
The excess may disappear within two years as domestic demand rises, making the yuan’s value less of an issue with trading partners, Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the central bank said last month. The currency may even face depreciation pressure, he said in an interview.
央行的学术顾问Li Daoku说，由于国内需求上升，两年内贸易顺差可能消失殆尽。这使得人民币币值对于贸易伙伴来说不再是问题。他在一个采访中说，人民币有可能甚至面临贬值的压力。
Trade faces “severe” challenges next year, Wang Shouwen, head of the Commerce Ministry’s foreign trade department, said on Dec. 7., adding that exports should grow provided Europe’s crisis doesn’t get out of control.
商务部外贸处的主任王守文于12月7日说， 明年对外贸易面临着“严重的”挑战。他还说，假如欧洲债务危机并未失控，出口还会增长。
Expansion in overseas shipments will slow to 10 per cent next year and trade will make a negative contribution to economic growth, according to estimates from China International Capital Corp.
中国国际投资公司预计明年海外货运量将减少10%。对外贸易对经济发展将起负面影响。
China Cosco Holdings Co., the nation’s largest operator of dry-bulk and container vessels, warned on Oct. 27 it will report a full-year loss as rates for carrying commodities and containers have plunged. Chairman Wei Jiafu called 2011 the “most painful” year ever for world shipping.
中国最大的经营散货和集装箱船的中远集团于10月27发出警告由于货物运输和集装箱价格骤降，该司将面临全年的亏损。中远集团董事长魏家福将2011年称为全球货运有史以来“最痛苦的”一年。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/271978/239346
