译者 Cathy1990
Life after the end of economic growth
经济增长结束，生活何去何从
A continually rising GDP is not necessarily possible – or even desirable. So why do policymakers obsess over it?
持续的GDP增长既不现实也不理想。为何决策者对其如此痴迷？
Photograph: Dan Istitene/Getty Images
摄影：Dan Istitene/Getty Images
后经济增长期的经济体更应该关注自然环境。摄影：DanIstitene/Getty Images
The tide of economic growth that has flowed since the second world war may finally be ebbing. For politicians and most economists, this is like saying the sky is falling. Growth has become guidepost and grail, the sine qua non of economic existence. Growth is necessary to job creation and the health of businesses. Without growth the rolls of the homeless and jobless swell, requiring governments to shoulder more responsibility; yet at the same time tax revenues fall, making both new and existing government debt unbearable.
Stimulating growth has become job No 1 for policymakers. David Cameron insists that his nation must deregulate business and reform employment law in order to "go for growth". And at the conclusion of the recent G20 global economic summit, the US president, Barack Obama, reported that the discussions there had revolved around the question, "How do we achieve greater global growth?" Such statements raise nary an eyebrow; they are entirely expected.
二战后开始的经济增长势头或许就要结束了。这对于政客和经济学家来说，无异于天塌地陷。一直以来，增长俨然成为了经济存在的必需、指示牌甚至至上的追求。的确，增长是创造就业和经济健康发展的必要条件。没有增长，失业者和无家可归者数目将会迅速膨胀，政府不得不承担更多责任；同时，税收减少，新债旧债齐压，政府财政将更加沉重不堪。
因此，刺激增长成为了决策者的第一要务。David Cameron坚持声称政府应该解除商务管制并改革劳工法以实现增长。G20全球经济首脑会议结束后，美国总统奥巴马报告称首脑们的讨论围绕着“怎样实现更大的全球增长？”这一个主题展开，当然，这没什么可惊讶的，完全是意料之中的事。
Nonetheless, in recent years a few economists have advanced a contrary view. Tim Jackson in the UK, Herman Daly in the US, and Serge Latouche in France have argued that growth is not always good for the environment or for the real health of communities, and that GDP growth is impossible to sustain over the long run anyway because we live on a planet with limited natural resources. Their position has won few adherents in the mainstream. In the "real" worlds of politics and economics, questioning growth is like arguing against gasoline at a Formula One race.
然而，近几年来，个别经济学家提出了恰恰相反的观点。英国的Tim Jackson、美国的Herman Daly和法国的Serge Latouche都坚称增长并非总是有利于环境和社区的健康发展；而且，地球上自然资源有限，GDP不可能长时期保持增长。可是，他们的观点鲜有追随者，在政界和经济学界，质疑增长等同于质疑在一级方程式锦标赛中使用石油。
But doubts about growth are no longer theoretical. We seem to have arrived at a moment when further economic expansion is hemmed in by financial as well as natural limits. As extraction industries chewed through the low-hanging fruit of the world's oil, coal, natural gas and other minerals, and turned to lower-grade and thus more expensive ores and fuels, managers of the economy tried to keep growth going by piling up debt in the mistaken belief that it is only money that makes the economy run, not energy and raw materials. Today, high oil prices are keeping a lid on commercial expansion in the older industrial nations as petroleum demand shifts to the hyperactive economies of Asia, which for now can afford steeper fuel prices. Meanwhile, we in the west seem to have maxed out government and consumer credit, and that realisation is sending financial markets into fibrillation. With energy resources and credit both stretched tight, that means more economic growth may simply not be possible in the US and Europe, regardless of our opinions about it.
但是，对增长的质疑已经不再是空论。目前，国家财政和自然环境似乎都已达到承受极限，进一步的经济扩张受到制约。当采掘业将地球表层容易开采的石油、煤炭、天然气食之殆尽时，他们将手伸向了地表更深处的矿石和燃料，它们比之石油等昂贵的多。经济的运营和管理者，则错误地认为维持经济运行的根本是金钱，不是能源和原材料，因此他们试图通过不断的借债来维持增长。目前，高油价限制了老牌工业国家的商业扩张，石油的主要需求国变成亚洲的活跃经济体，他们已具备了承受油价严峻多变的能力。而处在西方的我们，似乎已经用光了政府和消费者信用，这种意识使得金融市场一片震荡。资源和信用同时紧缩，欧美经济继续增长不再可能。信也好不信也好，现实摆在眼前。
If policymakers fail to recognise this and continue assuming that the current debt crisis is just another turning of the business cycle, then we may lose whatever opportunity still remains to avert a crash that could bring civilisation to its knees. Over the short run, this is scary business. Financial markets have a hair trigger, and fears about flagging growth could bring down governments and banks.
如果决策者不及时认识到这一点，继续认为目前的债务危机仅是经济周期走势的一个转折的话，那么我们可能失去仅剩的消除危机的机会——这场危机，足以摧毁所有文明。这样的说法在短期来看的确有点骇人听闻。但金融市场有种一触即发、牵一发而动全身的机制，人们对经济增长疲弱的担忧足以拖垮政府和银行。
Still, over the longer term there will undoubtedly be life after growth, and it doesn't have to play out under miserable conditions. With less energy to fuel globalisation and mechanisation there should be increasing requirement for local production and manual labour. We could meet everyone's basic needs by prioritising jobs in manufacturing and agriculture while downsizing the financial industry and the military. We will also have to reduce economic inequality and corruption (as the rapidly spreading Occupy movement rightly insists).
当然，在长期内，经济增长停滞后，正常的生活还是可以保障的，而且生活条件不一定就悲惨至极。随着可以用于促进全球化和机械化的能源不断减少，对本土生产和手工劳动的需求会增加。通过制造业和农业优先就业，精简金融业和国家军队，每个人的基本生活需求则可以得到满足。经济发展不平等和腐败现象也应该受到遏制（正如迅速蔓延的Occupy运动建议的那样）。
As we do these things, we must reform economics to reflect ecological reality: nature is not, after all, just a pile of raw materials waiting to be transformed into products and then waste; rather, ecosystem integrity is a precondition for society's survival. Adaptive responses cannot only be left up to government officials and economists; for their part, households must rein in debt and overconsumption while contributing more to community resilience.
在做这些的同时，还应该按照当前生态形势开展经济改革，以和生态系统相共生。自然并不仅仅是一对等待制成成品然后浪费掉的原材料；生态系统的完整性是社会生存的前提。但是，适应性改变的做出不能仅仅停留在政府官员和经济学家阶层，普通大众家庭也应该控制其债务，避免过度消费，并为社区的团结和活力贡献更多。
There's light at the end of the tunnel. If we focus on improving quality of life rather than boosting quantity of consumption, we could be happier even as our economy downsizes to fit nature's limits.
黑暗的尽头便是光明。如果我们将注意力放在提高生活质量而非增加消费数量上，那么我们必将生活的更加快乐——即便我们的经济规模为适应自然条件而缩小。
But a benign future is unlikely to transpire if we all continue living in a dream world where growth knows no bounds, where debt can be repaid with more debt, and where natural resources are assumed to be endless.
但是，如果我们继续生活在一个空想的世界中，继续以为在这个世界里增长没有界限，旧债可以新债还，自然资源取之不尽、用之不完，那么美好的未来将永远只能是个梦，永远不会实现。
Alarm bells are ringing. Wake up to the post-growth economy.
警钟长鸣。从幻想中醒来，直面后经济增长时代。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/268078/236607
