译者 达也的投球
How the U.S. Can Avoid a Lost Decade美国如何规避”失落的十年“
Today’s global problems could paralyze the U.S. economy and stock markets for the next 10 years – but that can be prevented.目前全球的经济困扰可能会令美国的经济和股票市场在未来的十年间继续停滞增长，但这一切并非不可避免。
By Michael Sivy | @MFSivy | December 6, 2011 | +
作者 Michael Sivy 12/06/2011
Even crises out of our control, like problems in the Eurozone, could trigger a "lost decade" of economic stagnation in the U.S.
欧元区的经济危机，已超出了美国的预期，并可能触发美国新一轮长达十年的经济停滞。
如果用目前最热的流行词来形容这段经济停滞期，那就是“失落的十年”。它反映了人们对当前金融问题的担忧，害怕其引起得经济与股票市场的萎靡将持续十年或者更久，事实上，这种担忧并非杞人忧天。但需要明白的是类似借贷刺激这类紧急避险政策并不足以规避长时间的经济停滞，如何促进经济的长期发展才是问题的关键。
The term “lost decade” is best known in connection with the prolonged stagnation in Japan that resulted from the 1989 stock market crash in that country and the bank bailouts that followed. More recently, it has become popular in the U.K. as a way of referring to forecasts of an unparalleled decline in living standards. The American version of a lost decade wouldn’t exactly parallel that of Japan or the U.K., but it’s still a little scary. Consider these three points:“失落的十年”的流行最早与日本的经济有关，1989年日本股票市场崩溃，银行业出手援助，导致了日本长时间的经济停滞。近一些，是英国版“失落的十年”，其国民生活水平正面临着前所未有的大幅下降。美国版“失落的十年”虽未像日本或英国般那样严重，但形势不容乐观，原因有三：
1) Avoiding another recession is not enough. On Friday, the White House framed the most recent jobs report as part of a narrative of long-term job creation. And certainly, the decline in the unemployment rate to 8.6% – the lowest rate in more than two years – seems heartening. But while there were an estimated 120,000 new jobs in November, more than 300,000 people left the labor force. At that rate we could eliminate all unemployment if everyone just stopped looking for work and stayed home. For genuine improvement, new jobs have to be created at a much faster rate than they have been over the past couple of years. Slow growth is simply a kinder, gentler recession.
1）规避再次经济衰退的理由并不充分。星期五，白宫公布了最新一期的就业报告，做为就业计划长期报告的一部分，报告指出11月份美国失业率降至了8.6%，达到了两年多的最低点。但这个数据只是看上去很美，事实上，11月份美国在创造了12万就业岗位的同时，有超过30万人离职。按照报告中的计算方法，只要让离职的人都宅在家里，停止寻找新工作，那么彻底消灭失业率也不是幻想。报告中真正的闪光点反而是创造就业岗位的增长率达到过去两年内的最大值。简单说，增长缓慢也是一种温柔的衰退。
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2) Financial recessions are more damaging than normal recessions. Every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, according to Tolstoy, but recessions can be broadly divided into two categories. The first is the normal business-cycle recession. Companies over-expand, build up too much inventory, hire too many people and generally get overextended. Then a period of correction comes in which companies cut back and lay off workers. That process takes around 18 months. But the defining factor is that the banking system remains undamaged. In a financial recession, by contrast, it is not only the industrial economy that gets overextended – the banks do too. And correcting the excesses of the financial system takes far longer. Indeed, the current recession has already been much worse than normal. Some economists say that full recoveries from financial recessions take six to 10 years.2）金融衰退比一般经济衰退更危险。托尔斯泰曾言：“不幸的家庭各有各的不幸”，但经济衰退大体上可总结为两类。第一类是普通经济周期衰退。当公司过度发展，规模过大，雇员过多，而造成产能过剩，市场将因此进入自我调节，公司会削减规模，裁减雇员，整个周期约持续18个月。重要的一点是，此时银行系统并未遭到破坏，这也是经济周期衰退与金融衰退最重要的分界点。在金融衰退中，将不只是工业经济过度扩张，银行业亦如此，但金融系统的自我调节会持续更长时间。事实上，当前的经济衰退已超过了一般的经济周期衰退。有经济学家预测要想从金融衰退中全面恢复经济可能需要6到10年的时间。
3) An external shock could cause a double-dip recession. Unpredictable events, such as a crash in China caused by the bubble in real estate prices there or conflict in the Middle East triggered by an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, could trigger a second recession and start the clock for recovery all over again. So could the collapse of the common euro currency or the breakup of the Eurozone. And even without such a dramatic event, attempts to straighten out Eurozone economies and shore up European banks could result in less lending and worldwide stagnation.
3）外部冲击可能导致经济二次触底。不可预期事件，例如中国房地产泡沫破灭引起经济崩溃，或攻击伊朗核设施而引发中东冲突，这些都可能引起经济的二次衰退和复苏归零。同样，还有欧元崩溃或欧元区瓦解等危险。即使这些事件都未发生，尝试理顺欧元区经济，救助其银行业的行为也都有可能导致低借贷和全球经济的再次停滞。
From all this, two things should be evident. The first is that there is every likelihood that something damaging to the U.S. economy will happen between now and the 2012 election. The second is that the aftermath could easily be a period of prolonged stagnation. Even the most lucid commentary on today’s economy tends to emphasize immediate problems, focus on the deficit or submerge the essential need for growth among a welter of other considerations.
综上所述，我们可明确两点。一是从现在到2012年大选，美国经济遭受再次打击的可能性是存在的。二是再次打击极易带来长时间的经济停滞。即便如此，目前最明智的经济评论也趋向于强调经济所面临的短期问题，着重于财政赤字或其他因素的讨论，忽略了经济增长的基本需求。
That’s all perfectly understandable. But recessions – even bad ones – end eventually. And they don’t necessarily harm the prospects of long-term investors. Historically, periods of depressed stock prices have been followed by above-average returns, both because investors get to accumulate shares when prices are at bargain levels, and because economies that have gone through a period of correction usually get to play catch-up for a while once growth resumes.
这也是完全可以理解的。毕竟无论怎样的经济衰退，即便是历史上最严重的那些，也终会结束，而这并不一定会损害到长期投资者的投资预期。历史上，股票价格在长期受挫后都会迎来高于均值的回归，一方面因为投资者在获利价格的不断买入；另一方面也因为在经历市场调节后，一旦增长恢复，经济在短期内将会奋起直追。
What is essential, however, is that growth resumes. That’s where the spotlight must shine. Short-term global financial threats may be the clear and present danger, but defending against them won’t prevent a lost decade. Even focusing on long-term budget problems – essential as that is – won’t be enough to improve living standards for the majority of the American population. There is no real way to avoid a lost decade without restoring a normal level of long-term economic growth. That can’t be accomplished by austerity alone or by stimulus plans that rely on borrowed money.
但无论怎样，本质上还是因为经济恢复增长，这也是公众所应该关注的。短期全球金融危机也许是明确而客观存在的威胁，但只是单纯抵抗危机并不足以规避未来经济“失落的十年”。即便关注于长期预算问题，虽然它非常重要，但也不足以改善美国大部分人的生活水平。除非将经济增长恢复到正常水准，单靠节俭或是依赖于借款的刺激计划都不能规避美国经济“失落的十年”。
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In one regard, the U.S. has an advantage over the Eurozone. The most troubled countries that use the euro currency may be shrinking their deficits faster than we are, but they already have crushing debts accumulated in past years. By contrast, U.S. debt is still manageable – especially once you consider that a big chunk of it is owed by one part of the government to another.
从某种角度讲，美国相比欧元区存在优势。欧元区最棘手的国家，收缩赤字的速度可能比我们快，却消减了大量过去所累积的债务。相反，美国的债务仍在可控范围内，特别考虑到债务的大部分属于政府间的借贷。
What that means is that we still have time to fix things. But it is essential that the current discussion be shifted to focus explicitly on the need for pro-growth policies. As we enter the election season, the first question every candidate should be asked is: “What is your plan to encourage healthy rates of economic growth at the same time that you are reducing the deficit?” To avoid a lost decade, it’s every bit as important to focus on reviving growth as on riding out the recession. Survival strategies just aren’t enough.这意味着我们仍有时间来解决问题。目前的关键是将讨论的重点明确地转移到增长支持政策的需求上来。一旦进入选举季，每个候选人所回答的第一个问题都应该是:"当你削减赤字的同时，你促进经济健康增长的计划又是什么？”为了规避“失落的十年”，经济增长的恢复与应对衰退同样重要，在经济停滞中苟活是远远不够的。
Read more: http://moneyland.time.com/2011/12/06/how-the-u-s-can-avoid-a-lost-decade/#ixzz1fl0KsxaX英文原文链接：http://moneyland.time.com/2011/12/06/how-the-u-s-can-avoid-a-lost-decade/#ixzz1fl0KsxaX
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/272748/238077
