BEIJING (Reuters) – As the world's major central banks hurriedly announced measures to ease stresses in global funding markets, China may have felt compelled to bring forward a move to relax policy that it could otherwise have delayed for a few weeks.北京（路透社）-世界各主要中央银行仓促的宣布将设法缓解全球资本市场的压力，中国可能感到压力倍增，也采取了放宽货币的措施，本来预计中国会在几周后才推出放宽货币的政策。
China's announcement on Wednesday it was reducing the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves left no doubt that the world's second-biggest economy was doing exactly as it did in October 2008: joining a global effort by policymakers to stabilize a rattled financial system.中国在周三宣布降低银行的准备金率，作为世界上第二大的经济体，中国此举毫无疑问是要像2008年10月份时做的那样：与全球一起利用政策干预稳定摇摇欲坠的金融体系。
That somewhat surprise move achieved a lot. For Beijing, it was an opportunity to show how big a part of global policy-making China is and the stake it has in the stability of world markets. It helped that China needed to prop up its own economy.这个多少令人有些吃惊的动作收效颇丰。对于北京来说，这是一个机会，一个向世界展示中国作为世界经济体系中一部分所拥有的巨大影响力，对于世界市场的稳定所起作用的机会。同时，宽松货币有助于扶持中国自己的经济。
It has also however meant that the timetable for China's hitherto subtle and selective policy easing has been pushed out into the open, and speeded up.不过这也意味着中国精挑细选的货币宽松政策的时间表过早的实施。
"The timing of the cut is earlier than I expected," said Andy Xie, an independent China economist. "The global coordinated action to ease dollar liquidity by six central banks is probably the trigger for China's move."谢國忠是中国的独立经济学家，他说政策的实施比预期中的时间早，全球6家中央银行联手加速美金流动率的行动促使可能是中国提前采取行动的原因。
China would have cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks eventually. The economy has slowed, inflation has eased and, most worryingly, capital outflows have accelerated.中国最终可能也会采取降低准备金率的措施。现在中国经济增长放缓，通胀放缓，最让人担心的是资金的加速外流。
A Reuters poll earlier this week had forecast the first cut in China's bank reserves would come in December and the consensus was for the ratio to be trimmed 200 basis points from the peak 21.5 percent through 2012. Wednesday's 50 basis points cut has altered those expectations quite significantly.路透社在本周早些时候进行的调查预测中国银行首次降低准备金的动作会在12月进行，舆论认为整个2012年会下调2个百分点。不过周三下调了50个基本点（0.5%）明显改变了人们之前的预期。
Kevin Lai, a senior economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said he now expected a further 200 basis points in reserves cuts over 2012, more to prevent the economy from crash landing than to drive another boom.Kevin lai，香港大和资本市场的高级经济师说，他现在预计2012年准备金下调将超过2%，更多的是为了防止经济的硬着陆而不是刺激经济的发展。
Economists at HSBC expect 150 basis points of further cuts to be packed into the first half of 2012.汇丰英航的经济师们则预计2012上半年准备金还会再下调1.5%。
To some extent, the policy easing has acquired an urgency because of the worrying pace at which global funding markets are drying up and as banks caught up in the euro zone debt crisis scramble to sell assets and cut their loans.宽松政策如此紧急的出台的另一个原因是担心国际资本市场枯竭的速度加快以及被欧洲债务危机困住的银行匆匆变卖资产和缩减贷款。
Money markets are getting as tight as they were in the weeks after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. For China, the risk of more capital outflows could cause further stress in already tight credit markets.货币市场现在变的像2008年莱曼兄弟银行破产时一样紧缩。对于中国来说，大量资本外流的风险是可能加剧已经相当严峻的信用市场的压力。
The U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks, including China's, cut policy rates simultaneously in October 2008.美联储和其他的一些央行，包括中国银行在内，曾经在2008年10月一起下调了政策利率。
This time, it is a synchronized supply of cash. Central banks in Europe, Japan and elsewhere extended agreements with the Fed giving them access to even cheaper dollars.这一次，是货币供应的统一行动。欧洲的中央银行，日本以及其他地区的央行与美联储达成协议，向它提供更便宜的美元。
China released cash from bank reserves and Brazil cut policy rates.中国提供更多货币的办法是降低准备金率，巴西是降低政策利率。
"It's clear we are all in it," said Frederic Neumann, economist with HSBC in Hong Kong. "China, as everybody else, has a stake in the stability of the global financial system and China's contribution is primarily through strong growth domestically."”很明显，我们都在努力“香港汇丰银行的Frederic Neumann说”中国和其他国家一样有责任稳定全球金融体系，而且中国因为国内经济的强劲增长发挥着关键的作用。
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS资金外流
But the concerns over a rare but steady drain of foreign money from the economy appear to have been the primary reason for the cut in the banks' reserve requirement ratio, the first such move in nearly three years.不过，对于三年来首次采取降低准备金率的动作，其主要原因看起来是非正常的外国资金外流。
Preliminary data suggests capital flowed out of China in October for the first time since 2008. China had to cut bank reserves if it wanted to keep money supply stable, given bank deposits were falling and the trade surplus was shrinking.之前的数据显示自从2008年以来，中国在10月份首次出现了资金外流。中国想要保证货币供应的稳定就不得不降低准备金率，让银行的存款额下降，贸易顺差减少。
Freeing up the money banks can lend, rather than cutting benchmark interest rates, also makes sense when inflation is still quite high at 5.5 percent, and China's policymakers are determined to deflate a property bubble.让银行有更多的钱可供放贷而不是降低利率，在通货膨胀依然高达5.5%的时候应该更有效果，而且中国的决策者决定仍然要挤压房地产泡沫。
"Obviously, they were thinking about it (cutting the RRR), and they have the hot money outflows, so it was a perfect timing for them," said ING's chief Asia economist Tim Condon.“显然，他们曾经想过要降低准备金率，而且也确实有热钱外流，所以这是最好的时机”ING亚洲首席经济学家Tim Condon说。
Weak demand from China's huge developed world trading partners has sapped exports, but the economy is growing at 9-percent-plus, and domestic investment is healthy.中国巨大的发达国家贸易伙伴需求降低导致了出口额下降，但是中国的经济增长仍然超过了9%，而且国内的投资环境仍然很健康。
Neither do private economists expect the central bank to embrace other forms of aggressive easing, such as by setting a higher money supply or lending target for next year.其他的民间经济学家也不认为央行应该采取其他更激进的宽松政策，如在下一年度设定更高的货币供应和贷款目标。
Annual inflation eased to 5.5 percent in October from a three-year high in July, but the real returns on bank deposits remain negative considering the one-year benchmark deposit rate was only 3.5 percent.年度通货膨胀率从七月份的三年最高点下降到10月份的5.5%，但是银行存款的真实回报率却依然很低-银行的年存款利率只有3.5%。
Any cut in interest rates could exacerbate the flight of savings into higher-yielding wealth management products or even the fledgling underground lending markets that the government is seeking to control.将利息降低会导致存款流向其他高回报率的财富管理产品，更严重的是这些资金会转向刚起步的地下钱庄市场，而政府目前正在大力试图监管地下钱庄。
"It's the start of a relaxation cycle, and the central bank is expected to take more steps -- the economic slowdown is there, and capital inflows are set to fall further, and many banks are finding liquidity shortages," said Hua Zhongwei, analyst with Huachuang Securities in Beijing.“这是新一轮宽松政策的开始，中央银行接下来会有更多的动作--北京Huachuang保险的分析师Hua zhongwei说：现在经济发展放缓，资金流入降低，许多银行都遇到了资金短缺的问题。”
"However, I still don't think China will cut benchmark interest rates in the coming months because that would mark a fundamental change, rather than a fine-tuning."“然而，我相信中国在未来的几个月里还不会下调利率，因为利率下降会导致市场根本性变化，而不是微调。”
NEXT CUT IN JANUARY一月份下调计划
The central bank raised the reserve requirement for banks 12 times between January 2010 and June this year, taking the ratio to a record 21.5 percent for big banks and 19.5 percent for smaller ones.央行从去年一月到今年六月一共上调了12次准备金率，个大银行的准备金率已经达到了创纪录的21.5%，而小银行也达到了19。5%。
The first step in what could be a series of cuts comes just before the Central Economic Work Conference, at which China's leaders chart the course for economic policies in 2012. There again, they are expected to reiterate a policy of keeping monetary policy "prudent" but fine-tuning it when needed.这只是在中央经济会议召开前的一次调整，接下来可能还会有一系列的下调动作，中央经济会议上中国的领导人们会制定2012年的经济政策。中央重申要保证货币政策的稳定，但是必要时不排除采取微调的可能性。
Still, because the central bank has been injecting liquidity into the banking system and selectively releasing loans to cash-starved small firms, it could be less willing to cut reserves repeatedly.另外，因为中央银行正在向银行系统注入流动资金以及有选择性的向缺乏现金的小企业发放贷款，央行可能不愿意继续降低准备金率。
The central bank has injected a total 159 billion yuan into the banking system the past five weeks via its open market operations. It has also allowed yields on bills it auctions to fall steadily through November.在过去的五周，央行通过公开的市场操作向银行系统注入了总共1590亿元人民币。他还允许11月的债务率稳步下降。
In addition, the finance ministry is likely to shift at least 1 trillion yuan of its surplus funds to commercial banks in November and December, providing a boost to their deposits.接下来，财务部长将在11月和12月调动至少1万亿元人民币的过剩基金给商业银行，帮助他们增加存款额。
Yet, as Wednesday's announcement showed, China may be compelled to ease policy if financial markets threaten to descend into chaos at the turn of the year. Or if its banking system freezes before the Chinese New Year break in January.然而，如同星期三的通知中说的，中国也许是因为受到金融市场的压力而出台的宽松政策，他们害怕金融市场在年终的时候出现混乱。之前大家都相信中国政府在春节前都不会调整金融政策。
"Once central banks move, it is never a one-off. So we certainly expect more from China," said HSBC's Neumann.汇丰银行的Neumann说”一旦中央银行开始动作，这肯定只是个开始。我们都預期接下来中国会有更多的动作。“
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/266773/236844
