译者 卧薪越甲
ECB and Germany Should Define the Rules of Their Game: View
欧洲央行和德国定义了他们的游戏规则：静观其变
The European Central Bank, with the support of Germany, is putting immense pressure on euro-area governments to do something about their finances. To that end, it would be helpful if central bankers more clearly defined what they want done.
在德国的支持下，欧洲央行对欧元区各国政府施加了巨大的压力，要求他们对自己的金融系统进行完善。其实，欧洲央行高管如果很清楚地表明欧元区国家应当采取什么措施来完善其自身的金融系统，对双方都有利。
By refusing to intervene as investor jitters send government borrowing rates to euro-era highs, the ECB has become the primary agent of political change in Europe. In recent days, market pressure has pushed Greece, Italy and Spain to install new governments focused on the painful measures needed to stabilize their debts and make their economies more competitive.
投资者的恐慌心理让欧元区国家政府借贷利率上升到了欧元区成立以来的最高水平，但欧洲央行却拒绝对此进行干预，这让欧洲央行成为了欧洲政治变革的主要推动者。最近，希腊、意大利和西班牙三国迫于来自市场的压力，重新组建了政府；这三国的新政府都致力于采取有力的措施来稳定本国的债务和提升本国的经济竞争能力。
Now France is in the crosshairs. The yield on the government’s 10-year bonds has surged beyond 3.5 percent, from 2.5 percent in September, as investors process a litany of concerns: the effects of slowing growth on France’s yawning budget deficit; the potential costs of bailing out French banks; and the increasing possibility of a euro breakup. To prevail in elections next year, President Nicolas Sarkozy may have to promise more and deeper austerity measures.
现在，法国也成为人们关注的焦点。法国削减不断上升的预算赤字而导致的后果，救助法国银行业而导致的潜在成本，再加上欧元不断增高的破产几率，都让投资者饱受煎熬；由此带来的后果就是法国十年期债券收益率由九月份的2.5%猛增到超过3.5%。法国现任总统尼古拉·萨尔科齐为了赢得明年的总统选举，将不得不承诺施行更多且更严厉的紧缩措施。
No matter what governments do, their efforts may fail without the ECB’s help to support growth and keep borrowing costs down. France pays an average of about 3 percent interest on its debt, according to data from the International Monetary Fund. At that rate, the government would need to get its primary budget deficit (excluding debt-service costs) down to about 0.5 percent of gross domestic product to stabilize its debt burden - - something it has pledged to do by 2013. If France’s borrowing costs rise to 5 percent, and its growth prospects decline by a percentage point, the target would move to a primary surplus of 2 percent of GDP. The difference: about 50 billion euros ($69 billion) a year, or approximately what the French government spends on research and higher education.
如果欧洲央行不给予支持且不将借款成本维持在低水平，不论欧元区各国政府采取何种措施，都不会达到预期效果。按照国际货币基金组织提供的数据，法国还债平均利率约是3%。在此利率水平，法国政府需要将法国的基本预算赤字（不含债务清偿成本）维持在国内生产总值0.5%左右，唯有如此才能稳定法国的债务负担；事实上，法国政府承诺在2013年之前保证本国债务负担处于稳定水平。如果法国的借款成本上升到5%，那么法国的增长预期将下降1%；在此情况下，为稳定法国的债务负担，法国的国内生产总值必须提高2%。法国国内国民生产总值的2%为在一年内产出五百亿欧元（六百九十亿美元）产值，与法国一年内在所有科研和高等教育方面的开支金额相当。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/170026/237914
