December 08, 2011, 9:08 AM EST
彭博商业周刊 2011年12月8日
Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Most global investors predict China will face a banking crisis within the next five years, paring their appetite for the nation’s shares and eroding confidence in its leadership, a Bloomberg Global Poll indicated.
一项彭博全球调查（Bloomberg Global Poll）显示，接受调查的全球投资者中，大多数人预期中国将在今后的五年内面临银行危机，使他们对持有中国股票的兴趣减退并且损害他们对中国领导者的信心。
Sixty-one percent of respondents said they anticipate a crash in the financial industry by late 2016, and only 10 percent were confident China’s banks will escape trouble, according to the quarterly poll of 1,097 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers conducted Dec. 5-6.
根据12月5日和6日进行的一项对彭博刊物订阅者中1097名投资者、分析员和交易员的季度访查，有61%的受访者说他们预计中国到2016年后期金融业会发生崩盘，只有10%的人相信中国的银行业将摆脱危机。
Evidence of slowing growth in China -- including the weakest manufacturing performance in more than two years, falling home sales and ebbing export growth -- has stoked concern that non-performing loans will climb in the world’s second-largest economy. The risk is a legacy of a record 17.6 trillion-yuan ($2.8 trillion) lending boom unleashed by Premier Wen Jiabao in 2009-2010 amid the global recession.
中国经济增长减缓的表现包括制造业创超过两年的新低，房屋销售下降和出口增长停滞，由此引起对这个世界第二大经济体不良贷款攀升的担忧。在2009至2010年全球经济衰退期间，温家宝总理提出释放创纪录的17.6万亿元（2.8万亿美元）的巨额贷款，由此遗留的问题是风险所在。
“The deep-seated misallocation of resources, particularly in the real estate and banking sectors, will lead to a combination of political and economic instability,” says Lance Depew, managing director of UPI Management LLC in Santa Barbara, California, and a participant in the poll. “I expect further macroeconomic weakness and sub-par returns in the stock market for the foreseeable future.”
一名受访者，加利福尼亚圣巴巴拉的合众国际社管理公司（UPI Management LLC）的董事总经理兰斯.迪普（Lance Depew）说，“深层资源错配，特别是在不动产和银行业将导致政治和经济的不稳定，在可以预见的未来，预期会有进一步的宏观经济疲软，股市回报率低于预期。”
Stocks Slide
股市下跌
The MSCI China/Financials Index of shares has tumbled 22 percent this year, underperforming the broader MSCI China Index of equities, which is down 17 percent. China Life Insurance Co. has declined 32 percent and Bank of China Ltd. 30 percent, contributing the most to the financial index’s losses.
MSCI中国/金融股指数今年已经下跌了22%，表现逊于大盘MSCI中国股票指数，该指数为下跌17%。中国人寿保险公司下跌了32%，中国银行有限公司下跌了30%，在金融指数的下跌中占了绝大比重。
Enthusiasm for Chinese stocks has flagged among Bloomberg users. In the latest poll, 21 percent called China one of the best places to invest over the next year. That was less than half the 44 percent who named China in an October 2009 Bloomberg survey.
在彭博的用户中，对中国股票的热情已经减退。在最近的调查中，21%的人认为明年中国的股市是最好的投资地之一。比2009年10月彭博调查中看好中国股市的占比44%低了一半。
Thirty-five percent of respondents said they expect China’s economic growth to slow to less than 5 percent from the 9.1 percent year-on-year pace recorded in the third quarter. Thirty- one percent anticipated “serious political or economic instability that stalls growth.” American investors were the most pessimistic, with 40 percent expecting a Chinese crisis.
35%的受访者预期，第三季度中国的经济增长将由去年同期的9.1%放缓至低于5%。31%的人预期“严重的政治或经济的不稳定将拖累经济增长。”美国投资者最为悲观，40%的人认为中国会发生危机。
A plurality of 46 percent of investors described the Chinese economy as “deteriorating” -- up from 38 percent in September -- compared with 40 percent who said it was “stable.”
46%的投资者将中国经济描述为“日益恶化”，9月份这个数字是38%， 相比较认为“稳定”的人有40%。
Goldman’s Outlook
高盛的预测
The skepticism contrasts with the outlook of economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and the International Monetary Fund, who predict China will avoid a growth slump while defusing inflation. Goldman Sachs, in a Dec. 1 report, projected the nation’s gross domestic product will rise 8.6 percent next year and 8.7 percent in 2013.
高盛集团的经济学家做出的预测与怀疑论者相反，国际货币基金组织预期中国将化解通胀，避免经济增长下滑。高盛在12月1日的一份报告中称，中国的国民生产总值在明年将增长8.6%，2013年增长8.7%。
A relatively low central government debt burden gives Premier Wen Jiabao’s administration the fiscal wherewithal to address a jump in non-performing loans. The IMF estimates the government’s gross debt-to-GDP ratio at 27 percent this year, compared with 100 percent for the U.S. and 233 percent in Japan.
相对低的中央政府债务负担使温家宝政府拥有必要的财政资金，以对付不良贷款的增长。国际货币基金组织估计，中国政府的总债务对国民生产总值的比率在27%，而美国是100%，日本为233%。
The World Bank said last month that while China faces the risk of a “strong” impact from a real-estate correction, it has “ample” scope to cushion its economy. Policy makers have begun responding to the signs of a weakening outlook, with the People’s Bank of China last week lowering banks’ reserve requirements for the first time since 2008 to encourage lending.
世界银行上个月称，中国调整房地产市场，面临其“巨大”影响的风险，但是它有“足够”的手段减缓对经济的冲击。政策制定者们已经开始对经济走软的预期做出反应，中国人民银行上周调低银行存款准备金率，这是2008年以来首次调低，以鼓励放款。
Best in Class
同类最佳
“China, simply put, is the best managed major economy on the planet,” said Anthony Stephens, an equity trader with Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong and a survey participant.
香港的渣打银行股票交易员，也是我们的一名受访者，安东尼.斯蒂芬斯（Anthony Stephens）说，“简单地说，中国经济的管理是全球主要经济体中最好的。”
Most investors in the poll don’t anticipate China’s relative economic performance translating into broader influence that would displace the U.S. as the world’s preeminent superpower.
接受调查的大多数投资者并不认为中国的经济表现会对世界经济造成更广泛的影响，它不可能替代美国成为世界上最强的超级大国。
Forty-one percent of poll respondents said that the U.S. would remain militarily dominant even as the Chinese economy eventually overtakes it in size. An additional 27 percent said China would “never surpass” the U.S. as the top global force. Only 25 percent agreed that China would “inevitably replace” it as the No. 1 superpower.
41%的受访者认为，美国将保持军事上的统治力，尽管中国经济最终在规模上超过美国。另有27%的人说，中国永远不会超过美国成为全球最强的力量。只有25%的人同意中国将“不可避免地”代替美国成为第一超级大国。
President Barack Obama’s administration has sought to enhance the U.S.’s stature in Asia this year, an initiative Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has described as a “pivot” toward the region after a decade of American focus on war in the Middle East. As part of the approach, the administration is seeking a free-trade agreement with Pacific nations including Malaysia, Vietnam and Singapore, and last month enhanced its security ties with Australia.
奥巴马政府今年已经在寻求提高美国在亚洲的形象，国务卿希拉里.克林顿描述，这是美国在聚焦中东战争10年之后将“中心点”转向亚洲地区。作为这一计划的一部分，奥巴马政府正在寻求与太平洋国家，包括马来西亚、越南和新加坡签订一项自由贸易协定，上个月更是加强了与澳大利亚的安全关系。
U.S. in Asia
美国在亚洲
Global investors are skeptical of the U.S. effort, highlighted when Obama hosted the annual 21-nation Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Honolulu last month and attended an East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia. Fifty-six percent said the campaign “will not enhance U.S. influence and end up antagonizing China,” compared with 30 percent who expect it to serve as an “effective counterweight” to Chinese power.
全球投资者对美国在亚洲的努力持怀疑态度，特别表现在上个月奥巴马在夏威夷举办的亚太经合组织21国峰会年会和出席在印尼巴厘岛的东亚峰会时。有56%的人说美国的行动“将不会提高美国的影响并且最终对抗中国。”相比较有30%的人预期美国将作为对抗中国力量的“有效抗衡”。
“China’s rising power and the United States’ traditional role are increasingly coming into conflict in the region,” said Michael Swaine, author of “America’s Challenge: Engaging A Rising China in the 21st Century” and a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “These two countries have very different views on what sustains prosperity and stability.”
卡内基国际和平基金会的高级合伙人，《美国的挑战：与21世纪崛起的中国交锋》（America's Challenge：Engaging A Rising China in the 21st Century）一书的作者迈克尔.斯温（Michael Swaine）说，“中国崛起的力量和美国传统的角色在这一地区的冲突日渐增长。这两个国家在维持繁荣和稳定方面的观点大相径庭。”
Leadership Assessment
领导力评估
Investors this year have become less enamored of Chinese President Hu Jintao, with 47 percent saying they were optimistic about his leadership, compared with 38 percent who described themselves as pessimistic. In January, Bloomberg customers favored Hu by a 60 percent to 30 percent margin.
今年投资者对中国国家主席胡锦涛的好感降低了，47%的人对他的领导能力持乐观态度，而38%的人称是悲观的。今年一月，彭博用户对胡锦涛的支持率是60%对30%的比率。
China is in the midst of a planned leadership shift that will culminate late next year with the 18th Communist Party Congress. The conclave, which occurs every five years, is likely to tap Vice President Xi Jinping as China’s next president and Li Keqiang, currently vice premier, as prime minister.
中国正处在计划中的领导层换届，至明年下半年共产党第18次代表大会召开时完成。每五年举行一次的秘密会议将可能会选举现任副主席习近平为中国下一届国家主席，现任副总理李克强为下一届总理。
Ahead of that comes an annual conference by top government officials this month that may affirm the shift to stimulus already telegraphed by last week’s bank reserve-ratio cut. Goldman analysts also predict an endorsement of “structural” tax cuts in the wake of rapid gains in fiscal revenue.
在此之前是本月将召开的每年的政府高层会议，上周银行存款准备金率下调已经表明的转变可能会得到确认。高盛的分析师还预测，由于财政收入快速增长，中国将实施结构性减税。
Global investors are confident the new team will continue the shift toward private enterprise devised in the late 1970s by Deng Xiaoping. In the poll, 49 percent of Bloomberg customers said the Chinese leadership will move toward free markets, while 37 percent forecast a tightening of state control over the economy. Asian investors were most upbeat, with 55 percent anticipating further opening.
全球投资者对于新一届政府将继续1970年代邓小平设计的向私营企业倾斜的道路是有信心的。在调查中，49%的彭博用户说，中国领导者将向自由市场经济发展，37%的人预期中国将加强国家对经济的控制。亚洲投资者最为乐观，55%的人认为中国将更加开放。
Next Administration
下一届政府
Among the tasks that may face the next government is clearing any wreckage left from a surge in non-performing loans. The IMF, in its first formal evaluation of China’s financial system Nov. 15, called for further moves toward a “market-based financial system,” including upgraded bank risk-management systems and additional skilled personnel for the central bank and regulatory agencies.
下一届政府面临的任务之一是解决不良贷款激增带来的问题。国际货币基金组织在11月15日对中国的金融体系进行第一次正式的评估时，要求中国进一步发展“以市场为基础的金融体系”，包括提升银行的风险管理系统，中央银行和监管机构增加更专业的人才。
“Many government liabilities are hiding in the banking system,” says Yin-Chen Chang, a consulting associate at Waterland Securities in Taipei, Taiwan.
台北的国票证券公司（Waterland Securities）的专业顾问Yin-Chen Chang说，“许多政府债务都隐藏在银行系统中。”
The Bloomberg Global Poll was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.
彭博全球调查是由总部位于爱荷华州得梅因的塞尔策公司（Selzer & Co.）进行的。统计数字有上下3%的误差。
--Editors: Chris Anstey, Christopher Wellisz
编辑：克里斯.安斯蒂（Chris Anstey）和克里斯托弗.威利斯（Christopher Wellisz）
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/193023/238602
