作者： 伊莱恩·德赞斯基 (Elaine Dezenski)和达蒙·皮特勒 (Damon Pitler)
国家利益 {The National Interest）20250427
尽管关税可能是开场白，但现在需要采取协调一致的经济治国战略来结束对中国的经济依赖。
美国长期以来承担着全球消费的重担。作为世界最大的进口国、世界储备货币的发行国和最后的市场，美国几代以来吸收了全球过剩资本，促进了全球经济增长，帮助7亿中国公民摆脱了贫困，同时也背负了巨额债务。如果美国不是自由市场经济的领导者和全球货币体系的主导者，它的生活将会怎样？
特朗普政府的关税攻势旨在唤醒数十年来经济自动驾驶的美国人。就在我们沉睡之际，中国公然策划了一场系统性的、持续数十年的汇率贬值，为无利可图、强制且军事化的工业繁荣提供资金。现在是时候解决这种操纵了。
他们采取的这些策略扭曲了全球贸易和资本失衡，损害了中国家庭的利益，并对他们施加了压制。对美国人来说，大量的资本流入抬高了富人的资产价值，同时对普通工人施加了金融压制，使他们难以应对不断上涨的生活成本。我们现在发现，我们的国家经济安全岌岌可危。如果我们不解决这种不平衡，自由市场经济就有可能面临停滞不前甚至走向衰亡的现实。
全球经济对抗的时刻已经到来，而且来得正是时候。尽管在"去风险化"问题上我们小心翼翼，但现在我们面临着不可避免的现实：我们必须与中国脱钩。日本率先行动，加息、出售外国主权债券，并在国内进行再投资。
别误会，这不会是一次舒适的旅程。
为了应对这一形势，美国面临着在再工业化与金融抑制（人为压低利率）之间取得平衡的困境。再平衡需要国家资本主义的"严爱" （正如拉塞尔·纳皮尔所言）。
美元霸权是我们最宝贵的武器。美利坚共和国的宝贵资产，无论盟国还是敌对国家都觊觎不已。没有哪个国家能像美元一样，提供如此诱人的繁荣和免费进入资本市场的便利。然而，美元主导地位的故事，也体现了帝国主义的傲慢，正是这种傲慢导致了我们当前的经济困境。
20世纪70年代，尼克松政府推出新经济政策，并与中国建立外交关系。在接下来的几十年里，美国制造业的生产力被低成本的中国生产所取代。随着冷战的消退和全球贸易的增长，美元的流通和需求也随之增长。
20世纪70年代之前，世界仍受《布雷顿森林协定》的约束，该协定将一国的固定汇率与美元的完全信任和信用挂钩，美元的信用额度为35美元，相当于1盎司黄金。然而，与布雷顿森林协定不同的是，没有任何一个国家组织能够就其后出现的美国支持赤字驱动型消费的体系达成一致。此外，也没有任何国家组织能够同意中国策略性、颠覆性的货币贬值，这种贬值扭曲了贸易和资本账户平衡，导致了当今世界巨大的贸易失衡。
美国及其盟友将一代人的创新和知识产权牺牲给了中国，导致美国中产阶级衰落、社会不稳定和民粹主义抬头。当美国在伊拉克和阿富汗为争夺资源和恐怖主义而发动远征时，我们的对手却利用窃取的知识产权和奴役劳工建立了自己的军工联合体。
我们必须觉醒，团结起来，迎接一场我们本应预见的战斗。尽管关税或许只是开场白，但现在需要的是协调一致的经济治国战略。
我们必须让我们的关键产业摆脱对中国通过强迫劳动补贴生产的依赖，转而建立愿意捍卫自由市场经济的国家联盟。
现在是时候重新制定贸易规则，排除中国的反市场行为，并迅速与志同道合的伙伴重新建立更好的贸易参与和盟友关系。
我们还必须为美国工薪阶层家庭提供有意义的支持，投资教育、恢复贸易技术、建设关键基础设施和关键产业，并支持家庭单位（是的，日托很重要）。
美国银行必须增加对构成制造业基础的小型企业和中低端市场行业的信贷，同时为国内制造商提供充足的市场流动性和合理的资本成本。
我们可以为这一代和子孙后代开辟一条通往经济繁荣的道路。但这需要我们承担一些风险，并承认我们与中国的贸易关系现状是难以维持的。
关于作者：
Damon Pitler是 AI Infrastructure Partners 的投资董事总经理兼 EVelution Energy 的首席财务官。他也是关键矿产论坛 (Critical Minerals Forum) 的董事会成员。
伊莱恩·德泽斯基（Elaine Dezenski）是"捍卫民主基金会"（Foundation for Defense of Democracies）的高级主管兼经济与金融权力中心负责人。她曾任美国国土安全部代理部长兼政策副助理部长。
图片：Pla2na / Shutterstock.com
原文：
The U.S. Can't Avoid Decoupling from China
April 26, 2025
By: Elaine Dezenski, and Damon Pitler
Though tariffs may be the opening salvo, a coordinated strategy of economic statecraft is now required to end economic dependence on China.
The United States has carried the load of global consumption for a long time. As the world's largest importer, issuer of the world's reserve currency, and market of last resort, the United States has absorbed the world's excess capital for generations, boosting global growth, helping to lift 700 million Chinese citizens out of poverty, and taking on an astronomical amount of debt. What would life be like for America if it were not the leader of the free-market economy and the dominant player in the global monetary system?
The Trump administration's tariff assault aims to wake Americans from decades of driving on economic autopilot. As we have slumbered, China has overtly orchestrated a systematic, multi-decade exchange rate devaluation to finance an unprofitable, forced, and militarized industrial boom. It is time to address this manipulation.
Their commission of such tactics has distorted global trade and capital imbalances at the expense and repression of Chinese households. For Americans, abundant capital inflows have inflated asset values for the wealthy while imposing financial repression on average workers, who struggle to keep up with the rising cost of living. We now find our national economic security in peril. If we do not address this disequilibrium, free market economies risk the very real prospect of flatlining and fading out.
The moment of global economic confrontation has arrived, and not a moment too soon. For all the delicate tiptoeing around the issue of "de-risking," we now face the inevitable; we must decouple from China. Japan has blinked first in raising rates, selling foreign sovereign bonds, and reinvesting domestically.
Make no mistake. This is not going to be a comfortable ride.
To meet the moment, the United States faces the dilemma of balancing re-industrialization with financial repression (keeping interest rates artificially low). Rebalancing will require the tough love of national capitalism (as elegantly phrased by Russell Napier).
Dollar hegemony is our most valuable weapon. The American republic's prize asset is coveted by allied and adversarial nations alike. No other country offers the allure of prosperity and gratis access to capital markets. The story of the dollar's dominance, however, is also a tale of imperial hubris that led to our current economic constraints.
In the 1970s, the Nixon administration introduced its New Economic Policy and established diplomatic relations with China. Over the next several decades, American manufacturing productivity was exchanged for low-cost Chinese production. As the Cold War faded and global trade grew, so did the circulation of and demand for the U.S. dollar.
Before the 1970s, the world still operated under the Bretton Woods Agreement, which tethered a nation's fixed exchange rate to the full faith and credit of the dollar, thirty-five of which equated to one ounce of gold. However, unlike Bretton Woods, no body of nations ever convened to agree to the system of American backstopping of deficit-driven consumption that emerged in its wake. Moreover, no group of nations has ever agreed to China's tactical and subversive devaluation of its currency, which distorts trade and capital account balances, leading the world to today's massive trade imbalances.
The United States and its allies sacrificed a generation of innovation and intellectual property to China, giving rise to a weakened American middle class, social instability, and populism. As Americans fought distant wars in Iraq and Afghanistan over resources and terrorism, our adversaries built up their military-industrial complexes with stolen intellectual property and slave labor.
We must awaken to rally for a fight we should have seen coming. Though tariffs may be the opening salvo, a coordinated strategy of economic statecraft is now required.
We must withdraw our critical industries from dependency on Chinese production subsidized by forced labor practices and toward an alliance of nations willing to defend free market economies.
It is time to rewrite the rules of trade to exclude China's anti-market practices and quickly re-establish better terms of trade engagement and ally-shoring with like-minded partners.
We must also provide meaningful support to the American working-class household, investing in education, restoring tradecraft, building critical infrastructure and key industries, and supporting the family unit (yes, daycare matters).
U.S. banks must increase credit to small businesses and lower- and middle-market industries, which form the manufacturing base, along with adequate market liquidity and a reasonable cost of capital for domestic manufacturers.
We can secure a path to economic prosperity for this and future generations of Americans. It will require taking some risks and acknowledging that the status quo of our trade engagement with China is untenable.
About the Authors:
Damon Pitler is Managing Director of Investments at AI Infrastructure Partners and Chief Financial Officer of EVelution Energy. He is also on the Board of Directors of the Critical Minerals Forum.
Elaine Dezenski is a senior director and the head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. She was formerly an acting and deputy assistant secretary for policy at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Image: Pla2na / Shutterstock.com.
from 新世纪 NewCenturyNet https://2newcenturynet.blogspot.com/2025/04/blog-post_737.html
