Info Aggregator: 普京解码：告诉你一个新鲜的普京（下）

Monday, 14 May 2012

普京解码：告诉你一个新鲜的普京（下）

《美国基督教科学箴言报》周刊封面特稿 （阅读上半部分）

《普京解码：告诉你一个新鲜的普京》（下）

5月7日，普京即将开始第三个总统任期之际，一位曾经常驻莫斯科、还曾担任过普京顾问的西方记者，向我们解密这位俄罗斯铁腕人物的世界观。这是本期《基督教科学箴言报》周刊的封面文章。

Alexey Druzhinin/法新/盖蒂图片社

Between 2006 and 2009, I observed Putin and his entourage at close quarters, working as a media adviser to his press office. (My task, in which I admit I failed, was to educate them about Western media practices and persuade them to adopt a more open style of government.) In the past three years, in the course of making a series of television documentaries and writing a book about Putin, I interviewed dozens of politicians in Russia and the West who had dealings with him. From these experiences I have detected several factors that I believe are crucial to his personality and behavior.

~接上期~

　　在2006年至2009年这段时间，我作为普京新闻办公室的媒体顾问，有机会近距离地观察普京及其随处。（我的使命（我承认做的有些失败）是培训他们掌握西方媒体实践的相关技巧，并说服他们在政府行政方面接受更加开放的风格。）在过去的3年里，在制作系列电视纪录片和撰写有关普京的书籍的过程中，我采访了许多与普京打过交道的俄罗斯和西方的政治家。从这些人的经验中，我归纳出几点因素，我相信它们对分析普京的个性与表现是至关重要的。

Regarding his attitude toward the West, it's important to remember that Putin was not always the iron man, the obstructionist we see aiding the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria or ranting about Western "interference" in Russian affairs. What we see here is the anger of a man who feels spurned – and he is not a man to forgive easily.

　　说到普京对西方的态度，我们务必要记住普京并非一直就是以铁汉形象示人，也不总是在叙利亚问题上支持巴沙尔政权从而蓄意与西方作对，拟或是猛烈抨击西方“干涉”俄罗斯内政，我们看到的是一个人受到藐视之后的愤怒——而且他不是一个容易原谅别人的人。

In his first years as president, Putin went to great lengths to be accepted by the West. He asked NATO's secretary-general, "When are you going to invite Russia to join?" He moved swiftly to forge friendships with the leaders of Britain, the US, France, and Germany – but found that only the latter two treated him the way he wanted. He made overtures, such as offering the US unprecedented help in prosecuting its war in Afghanistan (albeit for the selfish reason that he hoped this would help him fight terrorists inside Russia). He invited world leaders to lavish celebrations in St. Petersburg and Moscow. He introduced economic reforms at home that genuinely impressed the West.

　　在其就任总统后的前几年里，普京竭尽全力希望可以被西方接受。他问北约秘书长，“你们准备什么时候邀请俄罗斯加入啊？”他急切地与英国、美国、法国和德国的领导人建立友谊，但最后发现只有德国在奉行朋友之道。他主动示好，比如对深陷阿富汗战争泥沼的美国提供史无前例的帮助（尽管私下的原因是希望此举可以有助于他打击国内的恐怖分子）；他邀请世界政要出席圣彼得堡和莫斯科的建城盛典；当然，真正让西方印象深刻的是其在国内进行经济改革。

But Putin felt he got nothing in return for all these efforts, and genuinely could not understand why the West – while paying lip service to a new "friendship with Russia" and "the end of the cold war" – routinely ignored Russia's security interests. Despite developing what appears to have been a sincere, if superficial, friendship with Bush, Putin had to watch as NATO took in East European states, expanding right up to Russia's borders, and America abandoned the Antiballistic Missile Treaty and pressed on with plans to build a missile defense shield in Europe. The antimissile system is ostensibly aimed against a potential future threat from Iran, but Moscow is quite convinced – and not entirely without reason – that it could be used against Russia, too, and that at the very least it destabilizes the balance of power that has kept the peace for decades.

　　但是普京感到他付出了所有这些努力却没有得到什么回报，而且使他真正无法理解的是为什么西方除了喊了几句“与俄罗斯建立新的友谊”和“结束冷战”之类的口惠而实不至的口号之外，竟然对俄罗斯的安全利益视而不见。尽管表面上看起来普京与布什建立了一种真挚的友谊（也许是肤浅的），但他不得不回头看一下北约将势力范围扩大到了与俄罗斯接壤的东欧国家；同时美国抛弃了反弹道导弹条约并在欧洲加紧计划部署国家导弹防御系统。这套反导系统表面上看是针对来自伊朗的潜在威胁，但莫斯科方面心知肚明，它也可以用来对付俄罗斯，而且北约此举会动摇几十年来相安无事的军力平衡。

On top of these strategic issues, Putin was furious that the US refused to abolish the antiquated Jackson-Vanik amendment, which restricted trade with Russia, and – in Putin's view – kept moving the goalposts for Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization. All these grievances accumulated like bad blood, until, in February 2007, he exploded in a landmark anti-American speech in Munich, Germany.

　　比上述战略问题更令普京愤怒的是美国拒绝废除过时的《杰克逊-瓦尼克修正案》（Jackson-Vanik amendment）。该法案限制与俄罗斯的贸易往来，而且在普京看来，它为俄罗斯加入世贸组织设置人为障碍。这些怨恨在普京内心不断积累，直到2007年2月普京在德国慕尼黑发出了里程碑式的反美宣言。

The US Defense secretary, Robert Gates, sat in the front row, feeling the full force of Putin's invective. Mr. Gates was not entirely unsympathetic to Putin's gasp of despair, and during talks in Moscow later that year, made some unprecedented concessions to the Russians, offering them a 24/7 presence at the missile defense installations being planned for deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic.

　　美国国防部长罗伯特•盖茨坐在前排，感受到了普京的猛烈抨击带给他的强大压力。盖茨先生对普京表现出来的绝望之情并非完全无动于衷。当年晚些时候的莫斯科会谈，盖茨向俄罗斯人做了某些史无前例的让步，比如计划在波兰和捷克部署的导弹防御系统进入安装程序时将会安排俄方全时参加。

Gates felt this would assuage the Russians' fears that the system might be aimed against them. The Russians were astonished by the offer – it was the kind of gesture that could have kick-started a whole new relationship, by making the Russians feel included in the West's defense plans rather than threatened by them.

　　盖茨感觉此举将会缓解俄罗斯人认为导弹防御系统在瞄准他们的担心。俄罗斯人对盖茨的提议深感诧异——因为这种姿态将会开启一种全新的关系，会让俄罗斯人认为他们参加了西方的防御计划而不是在受到威胁。

But it came to nothing. Gates had been winging it. When he took the idea back to Washington, it was immediately shot down by the defense establishment. "When we got the offer in writing," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told me with a derisive smile, "not one of the proposals was in it."

　　但美景终成泡影。盖茨只不过是在即兴表演而已。在他把自己的想法带回华盛顿后，即刻遭到了国防部的否决。“当我们拿到你们的书面提议时，”俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖•拉夫罗夫（Sergei Lavrov）带着嘲弄的表情告诉我，“盖茨的建议一条也看不到。”

Instead of improving ties, incidents like that made things infinitely worse. Putin began to feel he could not trust anything the Americans said. The distrust was mutual. In my role as an adviser to the Kremlin, I tried to explain why it was that the West did not trust Russia. Don't you see, I would say, that if you are cracking down on democracy at home, if you are taking control of all the media, if you refuse to condemn the Soviet past – and even treat Stalin as if he had been just a normal leader – then people in the West are bound to look at you with fear?

　　关系不仅没有改善，反而变得糟糕透顶。普京开始感到美国人说的话概不可信。（当然）不信任感是相互的。我作为克里姆林宫的一名顾问，也在试图解释为什么西方也不相信俄罗斯。我会这样说：难道你们没有看到吗？如果你们在国内践踏民主、如果你们还在控制所有媒体、如果你们拒绝谴责苏联的过去，甚至还把斯大林当作一名正常的领导人，那么西方的人民不也肯定会带着恐惧看你们吗？

The answer was always the same: The West shouldn't lecture us about democracy. We will do things our way.

　　俄罗斯的回答千篇一律：西方不要给我们上民主课，我们有自己的方式。

　　…

This brings me to the crux of the problem – the point at which foreign relations and internal politics intersect. Putin is a complex and, in many ways, misguided character. His understanding of "democracy" sees nothing incongruous about the state controlling the media or police beating up demonstrators. But grafted on to this KGB-inspired, controlling mind-set is something the West rarely appreciates – Putin's fear that the West is actively meddling and is determined to "destroy" Russia.

　　由此我倒发现了问题的症结所在——也就是外交关系和国内政治纠缠在了一起。普京性格复杂而且在许多方面还受到误导。他的“民主观”认为（俄罗斯采取的）国家控制媒体或（西方）警察殴打示威者没什么两样，但是西方难以认同的是把这种对民主的理解移植到克格勃授意并控制的一种思维定势上——普京担心西方正在积极地干涉俄罗斯内政并决心“毁灭”俄罗斯。

When I first heard him using such language, I took it as mere rhetoric. Now I think he really believes it. He believes the conspiracy began with the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia in 2003 and the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine in 2004, which brought pro-Western leaders to power. Because American-funded pro-democracy groups played a prominent role in these revolutions, Putin believes they were entirely sponsored by the West and would not have happened without Western interference. He believes the recent demonstrations in Russia have the same backing and the same aim – to overthrow his regime.

　　我第一次听到他使用此类字眼时，我认为那仅仅是一种修辞而已。现在想来，他真的相信这样的论调。他相信（西方的）阴谋始于2003年格鲁吉亚的“玫瑰花革命”和2004年乌克兰的“橙色革命”，这两次革命都导致亲西方的领导人上台执政。因为美国资金支持的支持民主组织在这些革命中扮演了非常突出的角色，所以普京相信它们完全是由西方扶持的，而且如果没有西方的干预是不会发生的。他相信最近发生在俄罗斯的抗议活动具有同样的背景和目的——那就是推翻他的统治。

In fact, both the US and Russia tried to influence the Ukrainian election of 2004. One of Putin's spin doctors, Sergei Markov, sent to Ukraine to help the pro-Russian candidate, spoke to me in apocalyptic terms about what he believed the West was up to: "These people were determined that Ukrainians and Russians should start killing each other – and I mean killing each other." Another spin doctor, Gleb Pavlovsky, said it was part of a "Destroy Russia" project.

　　事实上，不管是美国还是俄罗斯都在试图影响乌克兰2004年的选举。普京的政治化妆师（spin doctors，译注：接近于公关顾问）谢尔盖•马尔科夫（Sergei Markov）被派到乌克兰协助亲俄罗斯的候选人。他以一种能预见未来的语气告诉我，他认为的此刻西方的阴暗心理：“这些人断定乌克兰人和俄罗斯人要开始自相残杀了——注意我说的是‘自相残杀’。”另一个政治化妆师格列布•帕夫洛夫斯基（Gleb Pavlovsky）则说，这是“毁灭俄罗斯”阴谋的一部分。

The disturbing thing is not that Mr. Markov's and Mr. Pavlovsky's words are utterly fanciful. It is that Putin almost certainly thinks the same way.

　　令人不安的事不是马尔科夫先生和帕夫洛夫斯基先生的话根本就是凭空想象，而是几乎可以肯定普京也是这样想的。

If Putin really believes the protests against him are all orchestrated by the West, it could be his fatal mistake. When he and President Dmitry Medvedev announced last September that they intended to swap roles – with Putin standing for election and appointing Mr. Medvedev as his prime minister if he won – they explained that their reasoning was that Putin's poll ratings were higher than Medvedev's. What they both failed to understand was that their arrogance in simply arranging to "castle" (the chess term the Russians use for the move) was the very thing that would trigger the collapse in Putin's ratings.

　　如果普京真的相信针对他的抗议活动都是由西方策划的，那么他会犯一个致命错误。在去年9月份他和总统梅德韦杰夫宣布有意互换角色的时候（也就是由普京竞选总统，如果选举获胜则指定梅德韦杰夫担任政府总理），他们解释称，他们的推理是普京的民调支持率高于梅德韦杰夫。他们都未能意识到的是，他们安排“王车易位”的傲慢态度是很危险的事情，有可能引发普京支持率的暴跌。

First the previously invincible Putin found himself booed at a martial arts event. Then in December, after parliamentary elections were blatantly rigged to achieve victory for his United Russia party, thousands poured into the streets to protest – for the first time since Putin came to power.

　　首先，此前所向披靡的普京发现自己在一次格斗比赛上竟然听到了嘘声。然后便是12月份，为了帮助自己的统一俄罗斯党获得胜利，在议会选举中公然作弊之后，有数千民众涌上街头抗议——要知道这是普京执政以来首次出现这样的现象。

Later that month he showed himself to be out of touch with what was going on. In a televised question-and-answer session, he mocked the protesters' white ribbons as looking like condoms, and claimed the demonstrators had been paid by Western agents. He described them as "Bandar-log" – the name of the "monkey-folk" in Kipling's "The Jungle Book."

　　月末的时候，他的表现让外界看出他对正在发生的事情并不清楚。在一次电视答问会上，他嘲讽抗议者的白丝带像安全套，而且声称他们是西方代理人雇佣的。他把他们叫作 “班拉（Bandar-log）”——这是吉卜林小说《丛林奇谭》（The Jungle Book）中“猴族”（monkey-folk）的名字。（译注：迪士尼1967年拍摄的动画片《森林王子》就是根据这本书改编的）

It is worth analyzing this comment, because it was no unrehearsed line. The Bandar-log are not just monkeys: Kipling describes them as undisciplined, leaderless, chattering, full of fine ideas but unable to carry anything through to a conclusion – exactly how Putin describes the opposition. He remarked, "I have loved Kipling since I was a boy." (In fact, like most Russians, he probably knows his Kipling better from a series of Soviet animated cartoons made in the late 1960s.)

　　有必要分析一下普京的评论，因为它是普京未经思索、脱口而出的话。班拉不只是一群猴子：吉卜林在书中将它们描述成散漫的、群龙无首的、饶舌的、满脑子的好主意但都经不起推敲的家伙——像极了普京眼中的反对派。他评论道，“我还是小男孩时就喜欢吉卜林的作品。”（事实上，像大多数俄罗斯人一样，他可能是从苏联上世纪60年代晚期拍摄的系列动画片才知道吉卜林的。）

In his television appearance, Putin referred to a Bandar-log scene in the book that is quite frightening. The monkeys are rioting, and only the giant python, Kaa, is able to calm them – by mesmerizing them and calling on them to step closer ... so he can consume them for his supper. Putin paraphrased Kaa's words, with a wry smile on his lips: "Come to me, Bandar-log!"

　　在他的电视秀场上，普京提到了吉卜林书中一段很吓人的有关班拉的情节。猴群发生了骚乱，只有大蛇卡奥（Kaa）能够安抚它们——先是花言巧语迷惑它们、招呼它们靠近些……然后它们就会成为一顿盘中美餐。普京模仿卡奥的话，嘴角上挂着一丝微笑：“过来呀，班拉们！”

It would seem that Putin really believes he has the rioting "monkeys" fully under his control. If so, it could be a fatal error. Moscow's "chattering classes" are convinced that Russia's political scene has changed dramatically. Already, an anti-Putin candidate has been elected mayor in a provincial city. The opposition may be disoriented, having found its voice only a few months ago after years of enforced silence. But it is not about to bow its head before Kaa.

　　普京似乎真的相信他可以将这群骚乱的“猴子”玩弄于鼓掌之间。如果真的是这样，那就大错特错了。莫斯科的“聒噪阶层”（chattering classes）都相信俄罗斯的政治舞台已经发生巨大变化。已经有一位反普京的候选人成功当选一个省会城市的市长。经过数年的噤声之后，他们终于在几个月前发出了自己的声音，反对派也许会就此迷失方向，但这点儿胜利还不至于让他们迷糊到把头伸到卡奥的血盆大口中。

Now, speculation is rife about where Putin will go from here. Will he make compromises with the resurgent opposition, to remove its sting, or will his undemocratic instincts hold sway? For the West, one thing is clear: It will probably have to deal with the prickly Putin for another six years, and it must decide how to make the best of that. In my view it would be pointless to lose those years in cold-war-style confrontation. Putin's foreign policy has always been reactive. He responds to positive gestures with goodwill, and to pressure by pulling down the shutters or even lashing out.

　　普京下一步如何走的传言甚嚣尘上。为了消除芒刺，他会与复苏的反对派达成妥协吗？还是他不民主的本能会占上风？但对西方而言，无论如何有一件事是再清楚不过的：在接下来的6年里，它不得不与“刺头”普京打交道，而且西方要想好如何妥善处理与普京的关系。在我看来，用冷战思维对抗空耗那么多年真是毫无意义。普京的外交政策一直是被动消极的。他对积极的姿态会做出友好的回应，而面对压力则是拉下百叶窗甚至以抨击回应。

So perhaps it is time to tempt him with another Gates-style gesture on missile defense – but this time, meaning it. If, as we have seen, he is suspicious of the West's intentions, then maybe it is time to reassure him. Maybe, just maybe, Putin will respond – he might become more cooperative in dealing with Syria and Iran, and if he feels more secure he might even be persuaded to loosen up at home. The alternative would be six years of cold-war standoff, which would benefit neither the West nor the democrats inside Russia who are hoping for change.

　　因此，也许有必要像上次盖茨在导弹防御问题上的表态那样再次表示我们的诚意了——但这一次，一定要是认真的。正如我们看到的那样，如果他在对西方的意图持怀疑态度的话，也许是让他消除疑虑的时候了。也许，我说的是“也许”，普京会做出回应——他也许在处理叙利亚和伊朗的问题上更加合作，而且如果能让他感到更放心的话，他甚至会听从我们的建议，放松国内的管制。否则的话，又会是一个6年的冷战僵局，这对西方乃至希望出现变革的俄罗斯国内反对派都没有什么好处。