Uncertainty about whether Greece will stay in the euro is crippling its prospects
对希腊能否留在欧元区的担忧为期前景蒙上了一层阴影
Jan 28th 2012 | ATHENS | from the print edition
THE banners at the entrance to the Bank of Greece museum in Athens promise a “fascinating journey through Greece’s modern economic and monetary history”. How could any passer-by resist? Inside the museum ranks of glass cases enclose an array of coins and old bank notes, as well as the paraphernalia used to make them. The bills range from 5 drachma up to 100m drachma, a reminder that Greece has had problems with inflation in the past. The end of history, at least for this exhibition, is 2001 when Greece adopted the euro. But the country’s present troubles suggest an important chapter to the story of Greek money is still to be written. Some reckon the drachma may roll off the presses again.
有一条标语写在位于雅典的希腊银行博物馆的入口处，上面说道：“您将饱览希腊引人入胜的现代经济和货币史。”谁能抵挡住这样的诱惑？在博物馆里，排成一排的玻璃橱窗里摆放着一列硬币和纸币，以及制作钱币的机器。这些纸币的面值从5德拉克马到1百万德拉克马，这印证了希腊过去的通货膨胀问题。历史的终结,至少对这个展览来说,是在2001年，当时希腊改用欧元。但该国存在着的问题。在其货币史上仍然写下了重要的一章。
This is no longer just a fantasy of diehard sceptics about the euro in Britain and Germany. Even Greeks concede that the big problem afflicting the economy, now in its fifth year of recession, is the uncertainty about whether Greece can stay in the euro and get its act together. Savers are anxious that their cash might be forcibly converted to a new Greek currency. By November the Greek banking system had lost a quarter of the deposits it had two years earlier. To fill the gap, the banks have borrowed €43 billion ($56 billion) of emergency funds from the Greek central bank on top of €73 billion of secured loans from the European Central Bank (ECB). Credit remains in short supply because banks have had to cut loans and raise borrowing costs. Informal credit arrangements between firms are breaking down. Foreign suppliers now demand cash payment upfront, making liquidity even scarcer.
这不再只是英国和德国的那些对欧元持顽固怀疑态度的人的妄想。即使是希腊人也承认，这个大麻烦让其经济很受伤，已到了衰退的第五个年头。这个问题就是对希腊能否留在欧元区的担忧。这种情绪已经发作了。储户们担心，他们的钱会被强制性地兑换成一种新的希腊货币。截止到11月，希腊银行系统已经流失了其近两年存款的四分之一。为填平这一缺口，银行已经向希腊中央银行借了430亿欧元(合560亿美元)的紧急资金援助，而希腊央行已经从欧洲央行(ECB)拿走了最多的担保贷款，多达730亿欧元。
In this section
»An economy crumbles
The perils of prudence
In praise of pessimists
Can you hear me now?
Competing arguments
Bain or blessing?
Shake it all about
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International Monetary Fund (IMF)
European politics
Politics
Balkan politics
Greek politics
Few investors or businesses are brave enough to make long-term bets on the Greek economy in these conditions. The stockmarket has fallen steeply (see chart 1). “You can buy good companies for pocket money,” says one business chief. Assets are cheap but they would become cheaper still were Greece forced out of the euro. Capital spending is down by almost half from four years ago; house building has fallen by two-thirds. The one bright spot is tourism: visitors to Greece were up by 10% last year, in part because tourists steered clear of the unrest in north Africa.
在这种情况下，没有哪个投资者或企业还敢对希腊经济进行长期投资。股票市场一泻千里(见表1)。“只用花些零花钱,你就可以买下相当不错的公司，”一位企业负责人说道.资产已经贬值了，而且只要希腊被逐出欧元区，那就还会继续贬值。资本投资比四年前下滑了近一半;房地产市场跌掉了三分之二.唯一的亮点是旅游业：游客人数在去年增长了10%，部分原因是游客要绕开动荡的北非。
There are hopes that the economy might recover next year if Greece’s place in the euro is confirmed. Agreement on a big new support package from the euro zone and the IMF would put some minds at rest. But a deal on new money cannot be thrashed out until the IMF in particular is sure that Greece’s public finances are on a sustainable path.
假如在欧元区的地位得到确保，那希腊的经济还有希望在明年复苏.欧元区和国际货币基金组织(IMF)已达成协议，向希腊提供新的大规模援助，这总算可以让人松口气了。但是采用新货币的计划还不能就此束之高阁，除非IMF确信希腊的公共金融业已走上可持续道路。
That depends, among other things, on private-sector creditors signing up to a bond-exchange deal that will see half of the face value of their Greek paper written off. A deal is proving elusive. Bondholders think Greece’s European rescuers should share in the pain. The ECB has purchased around €40 billion of Greek government bonds, at a discount to their face value, as part of its programme to stabilise bond markets. It stands to make a profit on them, which riles private bondholders. They also want a higher interest rate on the new bonds than officials are willing to sanction. Until a deal is done, Greece is stuck.
而这取决于其他方面，私营部门的债权人要签订债券交易协议，这项协议将导致他们的债权的名义价值损失一半。这样的协议是很难让人接受的。债券持有人认为，希腊的欧洲救助者们应该共担损失。欧洲央行已经以折扣价购买了400亿欧元的希腊国债，而这是其稳定债券市场计划的一部分。欧洲央行坚持要享有折扣，这激怒了国债的私人私有者。他们还要求新的国债有更高的利率，而这让官方很难接受。除非达成协议，否则希腊将面临瘫痪。
From bad to worse
从不好到更糟
The ever-gloomier diagnoses of Greece’s economy and public finances further complicate negotiations. An IMF report published at the end of last year said that a 50% write-down on private-sector bonds, a target set at an EU summit in October, together with €130 billion of extra official financing at low interest rates would give Greece a decent chance of getting its public debts down to 120% of GDP by 2020.
而对希腊经济和公共财政状况的判断，前所未有的悲观，这让谈判更加复杂化。一份IMF的报告于去年底发布，报告指出，私营部门债券已跌去其面值的50%，这是在10月的欧盟峰会上设定的目标，在此次会议上还同意提供1300亿欧元额外的低利率官方财政支持，这将使希腊还有机会把她的公共债务在2020年以前削减至GDP的120%。
But that assessment already looks too sanguine. The headwinds facing the economy are proving much stronger than had been forecast. Greece’s GDP probably fell by 6% last year, far more than expected. A weaker economy has made it harder for Greece to meet its fiscal targets. Softer growth in the rest of the euro-zone economy has not helped. But the depth of last year’s slump owes much to a shortage of liquidity, an influence which most economic models ignore, says Yannis Stournaras of IOBE, an Athens think-tank.
但这一评估看起来太过乐观。希腊的经济形势比预计的更糟。其GDP在去年以下降了6%，这远超预期。一个更加孱弱的经济使得希腊更难以达到其财政目标。尽管欧元区其他经济体还有着微弱的增长，但这对希腊也无济于事。但是去年的大降，在很大程度上与流动性短缺有关，这一影响被大多数的经济模型排除在外，来自雅典智库IOBE的Yannis Stournaras 如此解释。
The Greek central bank’s figures show that bank credit to households and private firms fell by 2.4% in the year to November. Banks suffering a drain of deposits have had to husband their liquidity. Official lending figures do not reflect the drying up of other sorts of credit. An informal system by which firms used postdated cheques to pay for supplies has broken down, in part because banks are warier of taking them as collateral for short-term loans. Firms complain that the government is slow to pay value-added-tax (VAT) rebates, making the liquidity shortage worse. Few foreigners will supply Greek customers on the basis of a credit guarantee from a Greek bank. So Greek importers, however solid, usually have to pay cash upfront.
希腊中央银行的数据显示，银行对家庭和私有企业的信贷从年初到11月下降了2.4%。遭遇存款流失的银行不得不减少放贷。官方的放贷量图表反应不出其他信贷的减少。在一个非正式的体系下，企业可以用过期的支票来支付货款，但这一体系已经失灵。部分因为银行在把这些支票当做短期贷款抵押时，变得更加谨慎了。企业抱怨，政府在支付增值税折扣时行动太慢，这加剧了流动性短缺。少有外国人会在由希腊银行承认的信贷基础上，想希腊消费者供货。所以，尽管希腊的进口商运转正常，但还是经常不得不用现今来支付定金。
Some firms are finding ways round the stigma of being a Greek enterprise and the credit troubles that brings. The headquarters of Aquis, a firm that runs hotels and resorts in Greece, was recently moved to London by its founder, Ioannis Kent. It is now a UK holding company with a British bank account into which the firm’s revenues are paid. Other firms have delayed payments to suppliers and employees.
有些企业在寻求方法，绕开希腊企业的恶名及随之的信贷问题。Aquis是一家从事酒店和度假村运营的企业，最近其创始人Ioannis Kent已经把公司总部搬到了伦敦。从而摇身一变成了一家英国控股公司，利用英国银行账户来存入公司的收益。其他公司也推迟向供应商付款和向员工发放工资。
A necessary fiscal squeeze is adding to the downward spiral and risks becoming self-defeating. The sorts of public spending that are likeliest to induce other economic activity, such as roadbuilding, have been cut, says Mr Stournaras. Big tax increases are not a sure-fire way of raising revenue in a country where taxes are routinely avoided. The rate on restaurant meals was raised from 11% to 23%; such a sharp jump seems almost an invitation to cheat for cash-strapped small businesses. The IMF says a shortfall in VAT receipts suggests some firms are not complying. A hike in car taxes prompted many drivers to hand in their licence plates.
一项必要的财政紧缩政策，会加剧经济的下滑和风险，并最终弄巧成拙。一些很有可能会诱发其他经济活动的公共开支，如建筑公路的开支，已被削减，Mr Stournaras说道。大规模的增税难以增加国家的财政收入，因为人们惯于避税。对餐厅的税率从11%上升到了23%；这样的大涨，对融资困难的小企业来说，简直就是在逼迫他们逃税。IMF指出，增值税收入的缺额表明，一些企业没有依法纳税。而汽车税的上涨促使许多司机上交了他们的驾照。
With so many uncertainties, the Greek economy cannot hope to attract the investment it needs to spur recovery. Until a deal on private-sector losses is finalised and implemented, investors cannot rely on a second bail-out package that will keep Greece in the euro. Even if a deal on losses is agreed in principle, a substantial number of holdout creditors could force the Greek government to implement a coercive restructuring. That might further unsettle bond markets and depositors. Banks will also have to be recapitalised after taking losses on their Greek bonds; no one is sure whether they will remain in private hands.
有着这么多的不确定性，希腊经济很难指望吸引投资，来刺激复苏。除非就私营部门的损失最终达成协议，并得到执行，否则投资者就不能指望第二轮紧急救助，就可以保证希腊留在欧元区。即使就损失达成原则性协议，众多顽固的债权人，也可能迫使希腊政府实施强制性的结构调整。那就会更大程度地动摇债券市场和储户的信心。并且银行将承受持有的希腊国债损失，因而不得不进行资本重组。没人知道，这些银行还能不能保持私有性质。
Goodwill hunted
寻找药方
Slow progress on freeing up the economy and cutting the deficit has cast doubt on the ability of Greece’s leaders to implement reforms. Last year the country moved up one place (to 100th) in the World Bank’s rankings of 183 countries for ease of doing business. Businessfolk call for something more radical to demonstrate the country’s commitment to reform.
在放开经济，削减赤字方面的行动迟缓，已经严重阻碍了希腊领导人推行改革。去年该国在世界银行的183个国家的经济自由度排名中，上升了一位（居100位）。商界呼吁采取更激进的措施，来兑现该国的改革承诺。
One suggestion is immediately to shut down lossmaking or underutilised public entities. Another is to tackle the corruption and inefficiency of the tax system by outsourcing the job to foreign tax officials or to a private-sector tax consultancy. That would speed up much-needed use of centralised computer records and stop the face-to-face contact between tax collectors and taxpayers that begets bribery. A signal that banks would operate at arm’s length to the state would also reassure potential investors. So would a high-profile assault on a closed industry.
一项提议是，立即关闭亏损和歇业的公共实体。还有一项是，通过将岗位交给外国税务官员或私营税务咨询机构，来应对税务系统的腐败和低效。这将增加对集中的计算机记录的利用，并阻止税务官和纳税人间面对面的接触，以避免招致腐败。有消息称，银行的运营将受到政府更多的监管，这一消息也稳定了潜在的投资者。对倒闭产业采取的举世瞩目的措施，也可以达到这一效果。
But Greece’s economic problems are too big to be fixed quickly. Despite a jobless rate that has risen to 18%, Greece still has a current-account deficit of 10% of GDP (see chart 2). For an economy to have so much slack and yet consume more than it produces is a sign of chronic uncompetitiveness. The IMF has said it will take more than a decade for Greece to become competitive. Some reckon it would be easier for Greece to regain its edge by going back to the drachma and devaluing than by keeping the euro and suffering grinding wage deflation. The short-term disruptions would be outweighed by long-term gains.
但是希腊的经济问题太过庞大，短期内难以解决。尽管失业率已攀升至18%，但希腊的经常项目赤字人维持在GDP的10%（见图2）。增长如此乏力，消费超过产出，这对一个经济体来说，是长期缺乏竞争力的表现。IMF指出，要想让希腊恢复竞争力，得花十多年的时间。有人估计，希腊可以通过重回德拉克马并让其贬值，来重获竞争优势，这比通过留在欧元区并承受着难熬的工资缩水，来达到这一点，要简单的多。短期的经济损失，将被长期的受益所掩盖。
Most businesspeople see little merit in devaluation. “The empirical evidence is against it,” says Efthymios Vidalis of SEV, Greece’s main business federation. “Greece had two devaluations after joining the European Union and the benefits were short-lived before inflation eroded them. It didn’t work.”
多数商界人士不认为贬值会其作用。“从经验上说是相反的，”来自希腊主要的商会SEV的Efthymios Vidalis 如是说。“希腊在加入欧盟后，经历了两次贬值，每次的益处都是短暂的，很快就被通货膨胀给抵消掉了。这样做不会起效。”
There is another way. When the crisis struck, Apostolos Vakakis, the founder of Jumbo, a Greek retailer, faced a choice: cut costs by 20% or raise productivity by that amount. He chose to improve productivity. In return for a pledge not to cut jobs or wages, Jumbo’s employees agreed to work harder. Each store is now staffed with fewer workers, allowing the firm to open outlets at a faster rate.
许多人强调降低商业成本在增强竞争中的重要性。与贬值相反，开放职业和产业，引入竞争，这样的益处是永久的，IOBE的Mr Stournaras 说，“重要的是’从事商业活动‘这种竞争力。”希腊的高管们指出，在货运业缺乏竞争，该行业自1971来就没有新的许可证，从而给其他企业带来了成本上涨。
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Many stress the importance of greater competition in bringing business costs down. In contrast to devaluation, the benefits from opening up professions and industries to competition are permanent, says Mr Stournaras of IOBE. “It is the ‘doing business’ sort of competitiveness that matters,” he says. Greek executives point to the lack of competition in trucking, where no new licences have been issued since 1971, as an example of an industry that raises costs for other Greek firms.
许多人强调降低商业成本在增强竞争中的重要性。与贬值相反，开放职业和产业，引入竞争，这样的益处是永久的，IOBE的Mr Stournaras 说，“重要的是’从事商业活动‘这种竞争力。”希腊的高管们指出，在货运业缺乏竞争，该行业自1971来就没有新的许可证，从而给其他企业带来了成本上涨。
Public opinion also still favours the euro: more than 70% of Greeks say they want to stay in the single currency. But if Greece is to have the breathing-space it needs to right its economy, it has to convince its rescuers that they are not throwing good money after bad. A deal on private-sector losses is only a first step; it seems likely that the euro zone will also have to stump up more money than expected to keep Greece going. It will be a while before the drachma printing plates on display in Athens can truly be confined to history.
公众仍然倾向欧元：有超过70%的希腊人说，他们要使用单一货币。但是如果希腊要腾出手来解决其经济问题，先得说服其援助者，他们的钱不会打水漂。还要点时间，才能看到印德拉克马的机器在雅典展示，到那时，这机器就真成历史了。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/278226/249146