译者 远近皆相宜
What’s in store for China in 2012? Despite food price inflation and a stagnant housing market, China should maintain a rapid rate of growth.
尽管受通货膨胀和房地产市场不景气影响，中国仍将保持快速增长势头。
February 2012 • Gordon Orr
Gordon Orr, a director in McKinsey’s Shanghai office, offers a forecast for growth in China this year. Read his ten predictions, then let us know what you think.
1. Government policies will spur consumption and investment. These moves will compensate for declining exports and a slumping housing market. To boost consumption, policy makers could pull a number of short-term levers, including tax breaks and rebates, and are likely to raise the minimum wage further. The 12th five-year plan calls for raising household disposable income by 7 percent a year; thus the government may urge large state-owned enterprises to increase wages across the board, which would pressure other companies to follow suit. Policy makers are also likely to extend a popular program offering rebates on purchases of electronics and appliances. (It fueled the sale of 200 million units, generating 450 billion renminbi—about $71 billion—in revenues from 2009 to 2011.) In addition, the government will invest heavily in manufacturing, particularly in the central and western regions, offering incentives to attract industrial companies inland. The manufacturing sector will continue to fuel China’s growth, thanks in part to the lower cost of labor and the improving infrastructure in the country’s interior.
1.政府将制定一系列政策刺激消费与投资。这些举措主要应对出口下降以及房地产市场下跌所带来的负面影响。为刺激社会消费，政府有可能出台一系列短期措施，包括减税和退税，而且极可能再提高城市的最低工资标准。“十二五规划”明确提到，要让家庭可支配收入逐年提升7%左右。预计政府会对国有企业大幅提高工资水平提出要求，这种政策倾向，必然也会传导到体制外的其他企业。政府还可能放松对电子、设备采购管制，加大对中西部地区地区的工业投资，吸引企业向内陆转移。2012年制造业将继续拉动中国经济增长，部分会得益于内陆低廉劳动力，以及工业基础设施建设的改善。
2. Dominant models will emerge for reforming rural land ownership. China must consolidate its farms to increase agricultural output and reduce the income gap between rural and urban populations. Land reform could help it achieve these and other objectives, and regions across the country are testing different pilots to identify the best approaches. One in the city of Chongqing, for example, helps farmers move to cities and thus gain access to education, health care, and pensions, which may be unavailable in rural areas. Participants have the option of keeping or giving up their land use rights in the process. A pilot in Chengdu, aiming to bring jobs and development to the countryside, gives rural populations rights typical of those urban residents enjoy. Thanks in part to this initiative, more than 90 percent of Chengdu’s rural residents now have medical insurance.
2.农村土地改革核心模式将加快推广。中国当务之急是加快提升农业发展，缩小城乡差距，为解决上述各种问题，各地都在积极进行土地改革的探索。例如重庆，鼓励并帮助农民向城市迁移，迁移农民享有与城市居民同等的教育、医疗保险和养老金等权利，并有保留或出让土地使用权的选择权利。成都采取的一项策略，是为农民在城市就业发展提供支持，享有与城市居民同等的权利。基于这一首创政策，90%以上的成都辖区内农民纳入到医疗保险范围内。
3. Real estate will stagnate. In an effort to further cool prices, the authorities will maintain purchase and credit restrictions that contributed to the deterioration of property markets in the second half of 2011. According to the China Index Academy, local-government revenues fell as a result of declining land sales—by 13 percent in Shanghai, 14 percent in Beijing, and 29 percent in Nanjing from January to November 2011, compared with the same period in 2010. Fear of local-government defaults and a general property rout may induce the central authorities to ease restrictions. Nonetheless, Beijing will continue to prioritize the construction of affordable housing for the poor in an attempt to prevent a hard landing in the construction sector.
3.房地产市场发展将陷入困境。为进一步调控楼市价格，政府将继续执行限购现贷政策。根据中国统计数据表明，相比2010年同期，2011年全年截止到11月，上海地方政府受土地出让政策影响，财政收入缩减13%，北京达到14%，南京则达到了29%。受地方政府高负债以及财政收入减少的双重担忧，中央政府有可能放松对房地产市场的管制。但是，北京方面为了预防房地产市场的“硬着陆”，将会优先加大对社会保障房的建设。
4. The fundamentals will cause further inflation in food prices. Broader inflation in consumer prices appears to have peaked, but those of food rose at twice the rate of the consumer price index in the closing months of 2011. Inflation is highest for meats—the price of pork and beef rose by 27 and 14 percent, respectively, over the 12 months ending in November 2011, compared with the same period in 2010. The trend reflects changing consumption patterns among urban consumers and the growing middle class, who eat more meat, thereby increasing demand for cereals to feed animals. The availability of food imports is limited, and the rate of productivity improvement in domestic agriculture remains low. Moreover, price volatility is high, since even minor disruptions can affect supply dramatically.
4.食品价格将在大环境下继续上涨。尽管居民消费价格总水平（CPI）在达到峰值后开始回落，但在2011年末的几个月份，食品价格增幅达到CPI的2倍，其中肉类食品上涨最快——猪肉和牛肉价格分别上涨27%和14%。与2010年各月同期相比，2011年反映出一个明显趋势，城市居民和不断壮大的中产阶层消费更多的肉类食品，增加了在畜牧养殖上的谷类消耗。由于食品进口有限，国内农业生产能力依然比较低，食品价格剧烈起伏不可避免。极小的市场波动，都可能对市场供给造成极大的影响。
5. Chinese investment in green tech will spike upward. Thanks to manufacturing at scale, China is already well established as a leader in the solar and wind industries. In 2012, the country will expand its efforts to deliver products and services directly to end users in international markets, raising barriers to entry for others. It will also boost investment in manufacturing and other upstream segments of the value chain, perhaps by acquiring (or striking partnerships with) struggling Japanese firms to gain access to intellectual property. As green-tech matures, the government may let subsidy programs lapse to prevent unmanageable growth and oversupply. Investors are interested. In 2011, 28 of the world’s 51 clean-tech IPOs came out of China.
5.绿色产业的投入将达到高峰。在经历大规模投入后，中国在太阳能和风能产业处于领先地位。2012年，中国将会把市场拓展到海外，为用户提供各种相关产品和设备，同时提高同行竞争门槛。此举可能会刺激到整个产业链的投资力度，甚至包括通过收购日本同行竞争者，以获得知识产权。随着绿色产业不断成熟壮大，政府可能会取消政府补贴政策，以防止行业出现非理性增长和过度投资。值得投资者关注的是，在2011年51家IPO清洁科技企业里，中国占到了其中的28家。
6. Accounting scandals will continue. China’s reputation among regulators and investors was tarnished in 2011. According to the Financial Times, the total value of Chinese companies delisted from US exchanges exceeded what Chinese companies raised through IPOs in the United States last year. The trend will probably continue in 2012, since more than 400 “reverse merger” companies are still listed in the United States; the fact that they were not subjected to the rigors of the typical IPO process suggests that markets are in for more surprises. International investors will become increasingly selective about purchasing shares of Chinese companies.
6.财务丑闻将继续出现。2011年，中国股市监管与投资者的声誉受到打击。根据《金融时报》报道，去年在美国证券市场停牌的中国企业，其IPO股价市值远超实际价值。鉴于超过400家中国企业都是通过“买壳上市”，2012年预计还会有企业因爆出财务丑闻而退市。这些企业由于未经过严格的IPO程序审核，将受到市场特别关照，国际投资人会审慎考虑是否要投资中国背景企业的可能性。
7. Private-equity and venture capital funds may go ‘walkabout.’ Some venture capital and many private-equity funds in China used an aggressive short-term strategy that essentially involved buying companies shortly before they went public and then listing them at high multiples. But as asset prices decline and the stock market drifts, the potential for quick, IPO-driven returns falls greatly. If the assets these funds hold were marked to market, a significant portion would be out of the money. Some funds will probably get into trouble with impatient investors, raising the possibility that certain fund managers may walk away from investments.
7.私募和风险投资基金将遭遇难题。中国很多风险投资和私募基金采取一种极有效的短期策略，通过短期投资一些具有潜力的企业，然后推动上市以获取高额回报。但是随着资产价格下跌以及股市低迷，快速拉动企业成功IPO可能性越来越难。如果这些基金持有的资产上市受阻，部分损失不可避免。遇上没有耐心的投资者撤资，一些基金就会跟着遭殃，基金经理离职的现象也会不断出现。
8. Chinese acquirers will be bolder. As prices drop, Chinese companies will seek international buying opportunities. A recent example is Shandong Heavy Industry Group’s recently announced acquisition of Ferretti Group, the Italian luxury yacht builder. Companies in some countries seem wary of the trend. Indeed, a South Korean consortium may be assembling to preempt Chinese companies from acquiring a French firm that has critical technology for liquefied-natural-gas tankers. The Chinese will continue to purchase property in the United States, but opportunities to acquire businesses there will be scant in 2012, an election year.
8.海外并购将继续延续大手笔。国际资产市场价格下跌，中国企业将寻求更多国际并购机会。最近的一个例子，山东重工收购了意大利豪华游艇制造商法拉帝集团。许多企业对此怀有戒心。事实上，围绕一家法国企业，一韩国财团正与中国企业展开竞购，这家法国企业拥有液化天然气油轮制造的核心知识产权。中国还在美国展开收购行动，但在2012的选举年，这种商业竞购行动可能遭到排斥和阻碍。
9. The automobile segment will be slow. The auto market will probably grow by around 8 percent, much slower than the 32 percent jump in 2010 but higher than last year’s 2.5 percent. In particular, the market for small cars and microvans will grow significantly in 2012, although the budget segment (cars that cost less than $10,000) will become a key battleground between multinational joint ventures and local companies. The National Development and Reform Commission has required joint ventures to develop and sell vehicles under “indigenous” (that is, local) brands, and most offer budget models under them. This development puts joint ventures in head-to-head competition with domestic automobile producers, such as BYD, Chery, and Geely. Meanwhile, several local Chinese producers suffer from declining share. Stagnant real-estate prices will dampen demand for luxury cars, and the debate about how aggressively to encourage electric models has led to some adjustments in policy—such as a push behind range-extended electric vehicles—that might at last help to ignite the market. One certainty is that local companies are not ready to commercialize electric-battery vehicles at scale in 2012.10. Hospital reform will accelerate. Two developments will drive the reform of hospitals. First, the emergence of clearer policies governing the payment mechanism between payers and providers will dramatically reduce excessive levels of prescriptions for expensive drugs. Second, local and overseas funds will lead a wave of hospital privatization, including both existing and new assets. In the pharmaceutical and medical-device segments, new provincial tendering policies will further erode prices. Nimble locals will fare best in this climate; multinationals will wait and see.
9.汽车制造产业发展将减缓。2012年，中国汽车市场预计增长幅度在8%，相比2010年大幅减少了32%，但与2011年相比依然要高出2.5个百分点，尤其在小型汽车和货车会增长显著。在合资企业和本土企业之间，价格竞争将是关键战场。国家发改委已经下达指示，合资企业的汽车开发与制造，必须采用本土商标，投资汽车整车制造业收到限制。这意味着外资背景企业将与本土企业将面临白热化的竞争，如比亚迪、奇瑞和吉利。同时，本土汽车制造商还遭遇股票下跌的制肘；房地产市场下跌打击高档汽车市场需求，加之推动电动车市场发展的争辩影响政策调整——如推动电动车普及——可能最终引爆这领域。但有一点可以确定，2012年本土企业不打算大规模向市场推出电动车产品。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/284288/250943