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Tuesday, 1 November 2011

中国拯救欧洲--欧洲最不得已的选择

中国拯救欧洲--欧洲最不得已的选择

译者 Sedimentaryrock

I am seriously not sure why people think that China bailing out Eurozone could actually be a good thing.

我真是不知道为什么人们认为中国拯救欧洲会是一件好事。

No, it isn’t.  In fact, it is a very bad thing.

不!不是好事。实际上,那是一件非常不好的事情。

The fact that China has a large foreign exchange reserve is because of its trade and exchange rate policy, which allows China to run trade surplus year after year, together with capital inflow, they force its central bank to create Chinese Yuan currencies to purchase foreign assets in order prevent Chinese Yuan from appreciating too rapidly, thus accumulating large foreign exchange reserve.  This is one of the aspects of global imbalances that people have been talking about once in awhile, and something that once in awhile people talk about how to get rid of it.  Chinese foreign exchange reserve should not have been that large, and the accumulation of foreign exchange reserve by the Chinese has basically been a massive quantitative easing programme from the perspective of Chinese domestic economy, which fuels its own investment-driven economy.

中国持有巨额的外汇储备是因为它的贸易和汇率政策,该政策允许中国年复一年的贸易顺差,加上资本流入,中央银行不得不发行人民币去购买外国资产,以防止人民币升值太快,因此累积了大量的外汇储备。这是人们曾经在一段时间内谈论的全球经济不平衡的一个方面,人们曾经谈论如何摆脱这种状况。中国外汇储备的积累金额本不应该那么大,中国的累积外汇储备从中国国内经济的角度看,它基本上就是一个大规模的量化宽松计划,助燃中国自己的投资驱动型经济。

But now, amazingly, when it comes to rescuing the Eurozone, people seems to forget that perhaps this was actually part of the reason why the world economy has got down to this.  In the context of dealing with global imbalances, people would suggest that China should not be having large foreign exchange reserve.  In the context of saving Europe, however, people now are suggesting that China should use its large foreign exchange reserve to do Europe a favour.  That’s just not right.

但是现在,令人惊讶的是,当谈到拯救欧元区,人们似乎忘记了,实际上这可能是为什么世界经济走到这一步的原因的一部分。在处理全球经济不平衡时,人们建议中国不应该持有大量的外汇储备。在处理挽救欧元区时,人们现在又建议中国应该用它的大量外汇储备挽救欧洲。这是不正确的。

Let’s be clear about that: Europe, on the whole, is a much richer place than China, and Europe should have the means to solve the problem, like printing money by the European Central Bank, but they are not using it because of German’s obsession of hard money.  The fact that this is a monetary union of 17 countries makes decision making difficult, which complicates the problem.  But on the whole, Europe should not be asking others for capital.  In fact, asking for outside capital to rescue the Eurozone should be the last thing Europe wants.

让我们看看清楚:欧洲作为一个整体,要比中国富有得多,欧洲应该有办法解决问题,例如欧洲中央银行多印钞票,但是他们并不这样做,因为德国执著于硬货币。这是一个17个国家的货币联盟,很难做决定,使问题更加复杂。但是作为一个整体,欧洲不应该请求其他国家投入资本。事实上,请求外部资本挽救欧元区应该是欧洲最最不得已的选择。

The reason is that Europe, except Germany and Ireland, have been running trade deficit which China.  The essential thing for peripheral countries would be to regain competitiveness and to hopefully run trade surpluses which help their economic growth.   Asking China for money into Europe essentially means that Europe is asking China to lend to Europe in order to buy Chinese exports, and this should absolutely be the last thing Europe wants, especially for the peripheral countries. As I wrote before, and I shall repeat it once more, that if China ever decides to invest in EFSF or whatever in large quantity, they are not saving Europe, but saving themselves by helping their own exports.

理由是,欧洲,不包括德国和爱尔兰,与中国一直是贸易逆差。对于外围国家来说,最根本的是将重拾竞争力和希望能出现贸易顺差,以帮助他们的经济增长。要求中国为欧洲提供资金意味着欧洲要求中国向欧洲提供贷款,以购买中国的出口产品,这只能是欧洲最后的选择,特别是对于外围国家来说。正如我过去指出的,我要再重复一遍,如果中国决定大规模投资欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF)或者任何其它形式,他们不是在挽救欧洲,而是以帮助他们自己的出口而挽救自己。

This is absolutely not a win-win situation, and Europe should not be asking for China.  Europe will lose.  China will probably lose too at the end.  Thus I strongly disagree with some of the people who think that it is good for China to save the Euro (like this and this).

这显然不是双赢的局面,并且欧洲不应该向中国求助。欧洲会输的。最终可能中国也会输的。我强烈地反对一些人认为挽救欧洲对中国是有好处的(如此等等)

Perhaps this kind of news can provide some boost to the stock market, but it is not getting to the core of the problem at all.  Unfortunately, European leaders seem to have no idea that they are embracing ideas which will absolutely harm them in the future.

也许这样的新闻可以给股市带来些上涨,但是它根本就不解决问题。很遗憾,欧洲领导人们似乎不懂,他们所推崇的想法肯定在将来会使他们受到损害。



from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/193023/228767