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Thursday, 6 October 2016

报告推测，到2030年将不会有全职雇员

By 2030,there will be no full-time employees, report speculates

报告推测,到2030年将不会有全职雇员

TOKYO —Within 20 years, says Shukan Asahi (Oct. 7), “the full-time employee will havedisappeared.”

东京——Shukan Asahi表示：“20年内，全职员工将不复存在。”

Is this good news or bad? Calamity or opportunity?

这条新闻是好是坏？这是灾难还是机遇?

“Working Conditions in 2035” is thetitle of a labor ministry report released in August. Among its 30 pages areseveral imagined “case histories.” The ones Shukan Asahi summarizes are prettysunny. “A-san” (as we’ll call her) is 50 now, a company accountant. “Fifteenyears ago” – which is to say, in 2020 – she lost her job to an artificiallyintelligent robot. But she’d known it was coming and prepared accordingly. Sheacquired qualifications as a health counselor and “now” – in 2035, aged 69 –works at a hospital, assisted by (you guessed it) an AI robot.

劳动部8月发布的报告题为《2035年的工作条件》。在30页的报告里是一些想象的“案例记录”。Shukan Asahi摘录的人都很快活乐观。“A女士（我们这么叫她）”现在已经50岁了，是一个公司会计。“15年之前（也就是说2020年）她的工作被一个人工智能机器人夺走了。但是她知道这一刻迟早会到来，已经做好了相应的准备。她获得了健康咨询顾问的资格。现在（2035年）她69岁了，在一家医院工作，助手是（是的你猜对了）一个人工智能机器人。”

Thenthere’s “B-san,” an automaker employee who’s 36 now but (in the report’sscenario) will soon leave to start a company manufacturing driverless “guardmachines” to scare intruders away from private property. By 2035, age 55, he’sfilling orders from “more than 50 countries.”

还有B先生,是一个汽车公司职员，现在36岁，但是很快就要离开公司去开办公司，生产无人驾驶的“护卫机器”来赶跑侵入私人财产的入侵者。等到2035年他55岁时，他接收的订单来自50多个国家。

A newworld is being born as the old one dies. The cost of failure to adapt will beredundancy – and with life as long as it has become, that could mean a verylong twilight. Imagine, on the other hand, a full and productive life free ofoffice routine, office hours, office infringement on your private life.

随着旧世界消亡，新世界诞生了。适应失败的代价就是人浮于事，而且只要生活变成了这样，一生都会伴随着如此漫长的惨淡境况。不过另一方面想想，充实而富有创造力的生活，没有一成不变的办公室环境，没有办公室工作时间，没有侵犯你私人生活的工作。

“With smartphones and Skype andother communications devices,” says Tokyo University economist NoriyukiYanagawa, “work can be set free of time and space. Full-time attendance at theoffice will be unnecessary, making it easier (for example) to combine work withchild care and nursing.”

东京大学经济学者Noriyuki Yanagawa说：“有了智能手机、Skype和其他通讯设备，工作可以不受时间和空间控制。在办公室出全勤没有必要，（工作时间自由）使得大家更有时间照顾孩子、护理长辈。”[/copy]

Youngpeople in 2035 will be astonished to hear that once upon a distant time peoplejoined companies out of college and, if possible, stayed for life. There willstill be companies, but not as we know them now and have long known them. Theoffice will be a base for the setting of goals and the launching of projects.The project once launched, you’re on your own – come back when it’s finished.And when it is, that as likely as not will terminate your involvement with thatparticular “employer.” It’ll be on to the next project – with another employer.

2035年的年轻人可能会很惊讶听到这样的事——在距今一段时间之前，人们在大学毕业后加入公司工作，有可能一待就是一辈子。那时候也许还会有公司存在，但不是像我们现在所了解的那种公司。办公室是制定目标、启动项目的根据地。项目一旦启动，你就有了自主权——当任务结束时再回来。而且，你不一定要在某个特定的“雇主”那里结束你的雇佣关系，而是在下一个项目里继续——由另一个雇主雇佣。

That’sone scenario; there are myriad others of course. Some companies even now arevisibly on their way to 2035 – Shukan Asahi cites the software developer Cybozuas an example. Its employees have nine work formats to choose from. How many ofyour work hours do you want to spend at home, and how many at the office?Choose the format that fits your lifestyle. If it fails to satisfy, you canadjust it next month. And if you want to take on a side job, you are free to doso – the one proviso that your outside work not be to Cybozu’s detriment.You’re not even obliged to report it to your boss.

这是一种场景。当然还有无数的场景。甚至现在已经有一些公司已经很明显在迈向2035年的先进方式。Shukan Asahi以软件开发商Cybozu为例，它的雇员有九种工作模式选择。你希望多少工时在家，多少在公司？选择符合你生活方式的模式。如果无法满足你，你下个月可以调整。如果你想做兼职，你不受限制。——唯一的限制是你的兼职不损害Cybozu的利益。你甚至不用汇报给你领导。

This is a foretaste and a model of things to come. Freedom to change implies an obligation to change – fast. For some it will be too fast. The old lifetime employment has no future, Shukan Asahi makes clear. It was secure but stifling.The air is fresher now, and will be fresher still in 20 years. As for security– “What’s that?” we can imagine a youngster asking in 2035.

这是一个预兆，是即将到来的实物的模型。改变的自由意味着改变的义务——快。对某些人来说太快了。过去的雇佣方式没有未来，Shukan Asahi明确到。旧有的雇佣方式是安全的，但是令人窒息。现在的空间更清新了，在未来20年内还会一直清新。至于安全——“那是什么？”我们可以想象，2035年的年轻人会问这个问题。

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