译者 flyingheart
Pakistani youths play cricket at the site of the demolished compound of slain Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad on Wednesday.
4月25日，阿伯塔伯德，巴基斯坦青少年在被拆毁的本拉登住所原址处打板球。
(摄影：Aamir Qureshi，法新社/盖蒂图片社)
WASHINGTON – The death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of U.S. Navy commandos a year ago was a setback to al-Qaeda, but the Islamic terror organization remains a potent threat around the world, intelligence experts say.
【华盛顿消息】情报专家说，一年前本拉登被美国海军突击队打死使基地组织遭受挫折，但这个伊斯兰恐怖组织依然是全世界的潜在威胁。
"It's on the defensive, but it's far from defeated," said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer at the Brookings Institution, a think tank.
布鲁斯•里德尔（Bruce Riedel），前中央情报局官员，目前供职于布鲁金斯学会。“基地组织目前处于守势，但远未被击败，”他说。
The raid by SEALs removed America's No. 1 fugitive and cracked the mythic status he held among followers for eluding the reach of a world superpower. Bin Laden had been hiding for years in a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, when a team of SEALs arrived by helicopter and killed him May 2, 2011.
去年的5月2日，一支海豹突击队乘直升机实施的那次突袭除掉了美国头号追捕对象，也摧毁了本拉登在追随者中享有的、总是可以逃避一个世界超级大国追杀的神话般地位。在此之前，本拉登已经在这处位于巴基斯坦阿伯塔伯德（Abbottabad）的住所里躲藏了好几年的时间。
Bin Laden was the founder and spiritual leader of al-Qaeda and orchestrated not only the Sept. 11 attacks that killed nearly 3,000 Americans, but also other attacks. Yet the principal strength of al-Qaeda is that it is designed to operate without a central leader, experts say.
本拉登是基地组织的创建人和精神领袖，不仅精心策划了将近3000名美国人丧生的911袭击大案，也包括其它的袭击事件。但分析专家认为，基地组织的强大之处在于它的组织体系是可以在没有核心领导人的情况下运转的。
Bin Laden stitched together local and regional Muslim militant groups worldwide and encouraged them to act on their own initiative, analysts say.
本拉登将地方的和区域性的穆斯林武装组织在世界范围内整合起来，但鼓励他们各自为战。
"He created an organization and developed it," said Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA official and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
保卫民主基金会（FDD）资深研究员鲁埃尔•马克•捷瑞特（Reuel Marc Gerecht）说，“他创办了这个组织并使它发展起来。”捷瑞特也是一名前中央情报局官员。
"I don't think his death fundamentally affects the future of jihadist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan," Gerecht said. "It was a successful spawning."
“我认为他的死不会从根本上影响圣战组织在巴基斯坦和阿富汗的未来，”捷瑞特说，“这是一次成功的繁殖扩散机会。”
In the past year, terrorist groups with ties to al-Qaeda affiliates have established safe havens in eastern Afghanistan and carried out attacks against the capital of Kabul, according to the Afghan government. Al-Qaeda jihadists are insinuating themselves into many conflicts in parts of Africa, the U.S. Africa Command said.
根据阿富汗政府提供的信息，在过去的一年里，依附于基地组织分支机构的恐怖组织已经在阿富汗东部地区建立起了根据地并在实施对首都喀布尔的袭击。美军非洲司令部也称，基地组织的圣战者正在混入非洲地区的很多冲突之中。
Al-Qaeda is blamed for increasing the bombings in Iraq and has gained strength in southern Yemen, where it has been holding off government troops and is being targeted by U.S. drone strikes.
基地组织被指应对伊拉克正在增多的爆炸袭击负责，同时基地组织已在也门南部地区积蓄力量，该地区已经摆脱了政府军的控制，正成为美国无人机攻击的目标。
Al-Qaeda-linked terror plots continued in the years that bin Laden was in hiding and not believed to be in direct contact with plotters. Many were disrupted by foreign and domestic intelligence agencies. Police in New York have broken up several attempted al-Qaeda plots, including terrorists who tried to bomb Times Square and synagogues.
与基地组织有关的恐怖袭击阴谋在本拉登躲藏的这几年里不断暴露出来，据信本拉登并未与这些阴谋策划人直接联系。许多袭击图谋都被国内外的情报机构瓦解了。纽约市警察局就破获了好几起基地组织袭击阴谋，其中包括企图在时代广场和犹太教堂实施爆炸的恐怖分子。
"He built affiliates," said Rick Nelson, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
战略与国际研究中心（the Center for Strategic and International Studies）的分析师里克•尼尔森（Rick Nelson）说，“他建立了基地组织的网络体系。”
The CIA is continuing to comb through the intelligence gathered at his Pakistani compound, where American commandos flew off with hard drives, documents and DVDs. Analysts say most of the intelligence gathered at his home will contribute to an understanding of how the organization operated but would probably not include "actionable" intelligence, since much of it was dated.
中央情报局仍在继续梳理从本拉登的巴基斯坦住所里收集的情报。美国突击队在此截获了硬盘、文件和DVD等资料。分析家称，在其家中获得的大部分情报有助于了解该组织是如何运转的，但可能不包括“可随时付诸实施的情报”，因为大多数情报都已过期了。
It provides a "historical portrait of al-Qaeda over the years," Riedel said.
里德尔说，“这些情报可以帮助我们厘清这些年来基地组织发展的脉络。”
The United States has achieved significant successes since the raid, notably the drone strike that killed American jihadist Anwar al-Awlaki in September in Yemen.
从这次袭击开始，美国接连获得重大胜利，尤其是去年九月利用无人机在也门成功袭击并杀死了美籍圣战者安瓦尔•奥拉基（Anwar al-Awlaki）。
Al-Awlaki was an English speaker who produced a stream of propaganda aimed at promoting al-Qaeda globally. He had exchanged e-mails with the U.S. Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, a psychiatrist accused of killing 13 people at the Fort Hood military post in Texas.
奥拉基说英语，在全球范围内筹划了一连串美化基地组织的宣传活动。他曾和美军精神病医生哈桑少校（Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan）互发电子邮件，而后者被控在德克萨斯州胡德堡军事基地杀死13个人。
He was also an operational planner linked to the Christmas Day "underwear bomber" in 2009 who tried to blow up a flight as it was landing in Chicago.
奥拉基还涉嫌于2009年圣诞节期间企图利用“内裤炸弹”炸毁在芝加哥降落的一架航班。
The al-Qaeda affiliate in Yemen, called al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, is considered among the most dangerous and threatening to the United States. White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan called it "the most active operational franchise" in the world.
基地组织在也门的分支机构称作阿拉伯半岛基地组织，据认为位于最危险的也是对美国威胁最大的恐怖组织之列。白宫反恐顾问约翰•布伦南（John Brennan）将其称之为“最活跃的恐怖网络。”
Even so, Brennan said Sunday on ABC's This Week that bin Laden's death "made a tremendous difference. It's taken away the founding leader of that organization who was … a symbol of al-Qaeda's sort of murderous agenda worldwide."
不仅如此，布伦南在美国广播公司上周日的《本周》（This Week）节目中称，本拉登之死“产生了巨大的影响力。基地组织的创始人被摘除。在某种程度上，本拉登是基地组织全球恐怖袭击的一个象征。”
Brennan said that although numerous gains have been made against al-Qaeda since bin Laden's death, "I don't look at it as a victory. I think … we have to destroy the organization. We have to take all of their operatives, their leaders, their training camps, take away their safe havens. And we're not going to rest."
布伦南说，尽管本拉登被击毙后，针对基地组织的行动取得诸多成果，“但我并不把它看作是一场胜利。我认为……我们需要摧毁这个组织。我们需要铲除他们全部的武装分子、他们的领导人、他们的训练营，消灭他们的根据地。我们还不到高枕无忧的时候。”
U.S. officials have grown more concerned with Yemen as a spawning ground for terrorism in the wake of political turmoil that led to the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been a U.S. ally in fighting extremism in his country.
也门的政治动荡导致总统萨利赫辞职，而他一直是美国在也门打击恐怖主义的合作伙伴。有鉴于此，美国官员愈发对也门成为恐怖主义的一个孳生地感到担忧。
U.S drone strikes in Yemen and Pakistan have eliminated many militant leaders, experts said. Riedel said the strikes are putting al-Qaeda "under enormous pressure."
美国的无人机攻击波已经消灭了也门和巴基斯坦境内许多激进武装组织的领导人。里德尔说，此番袭击给基地组织施加了“巨大的压力。”
Despite the toll from drones, disparate jihadist movements in Pakistan have survived and in some cases cooperate in attacks outside their borders. Groups such as the Haqqani network, Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba have unleashed waves of violence against Pakistanis, Afghans and in India against Hindus and Jews.
尽管无人机消灭了圣战者的一些有生力量，但在巴基斯坦境内，一些与以往不同的圣战组织却在幸存下来并在某些情形下联合袭击境外目标。例如哈卡尼网络（Haqqani network）、穆罕默德军（Jaish-e-Muhammad）和虔诚军（Lashkar-e-Taiba）等组织已经发动了针对巴基斯坦人、阿富汗人以及在在印度针对印度教徒和犹太人的暴力浪潮。
Ultimately, al-Qaeda's future may be determined more by popular revolts across the Arab world then by the loss of bin Laden, analysts said. Al-Qaeda did not trigger the revolts but has voiced support for them. Now that dictatorships have been ousted in Muslim nations such as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the world waits to see what regimes will emerge.
分析家认为，最终基地组织的未来也许更多将由因本拉登丧生引发的遍及阿拉伯世界的民变（popular revolts）决定。基地组织并未挑起这些民变，但发声支持他们。既然在诸如突尼斯、埃及和利比亚等穆斯林国家，独裁统治已被取代，那么全世界也在等待看这些国家会出现什么样的政体。
"The great Arab revolt will have far greater impact on the future of jihadism than the death of bin Laden," Gerecht said.
捷瑞特说，“阿拉伯之春带给圣战主义的影响要远远大过本拉登之死。”
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