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Saturday, 31 December 2011

毛里求斯奇迹—美国能从弹丸岛国学什么?

译者 zjgjasoncool

Suppose someone were to describe to you a small country that provided free education through university for all of its citizens, transportation for school children, and free health care—including heart surgery—for all. You might suspect that such a country is either phenomenally rich or on the fast track to fiscal crisis.

如果有人向你描述一个不大的国家免费为全体国民提供全程教育(包括大学),免费为学生提供交通,还免费提供医疗(包括心脏手术),你可能会想这个国家要么极富,要么离财政危机不远了。

After all, rich countries in Europe have increasingly found that they cannot pay for university education and are asking young people and their families to bear the costs. For its part, the United States has never attempted to give free college for all, and it took a bitter battle just to ensure that America's poor get access to health care—a guarantee that the Republican Party is now working hard to repeal, claiming that the country cannot afford it.

别忘了,欧洲的富国越发觉得他们无力为大学教育买单,而要求年轻人及其家庭承担费用。美国也从未打算提供免费大学教育,为确保穷人享受医疗服务也颇费了一番周折,而共和党正拼命想废除这一承诺,声称国家无力支付。

But Mauritius, a tropical island nation of 1.3 million people off the east coast of Africa, is neither particularly rich nor on its way to budgetary ruin. Nonetheless, it has spent the last decades successfully building a diverse economy, a democratic political system, and a strong social safety net. Many countries, not least the United States, could learn from its experience.

但是,毛里求斯,一个拥有130万人在非洲东海岸的热带岛国,既不是特别富有,也未濒临财政危机。无论如何,该国在过去几十年内成功建立了一个多元化的经济结构、一个民主的政治体系和一张强有力的社会安全网络。不仅仅是美国,许多国家都可以从毛里求斯的经验学到些东西。

In a recent visit I had a chance to see some of the leaps Mauritius has taken—accomplishments that can seem bewildering in light of the debate in the United States and elsewhere. Consider home ownership: While American conservatives say that the government's attempt to extend home ownership to 70 percent of the U.S. population was responsible for the financial meltdown, 87 percent of Mauritians own their own homes—without fueling a housing bubble.

在最近的一次考察中,我有幸看到了毛里求斯的巨大成就,这些成就让争论不休的美国和其他国家相形见拙。来看一看拥有房屋的情况吧。美国的保守人士说政府让70%的美国人拥有自己的房屋应对金融危机负责,可87%的毛里求斯人都有自己的房屋,倒也没有产生所谓的住房泡沫。

Now comes the painful number: Mauritius's GDP has grown faster than 5 percent annually for almost 30 years. Surely, you think, this must be some "trick." Mauritius must be rich in diamonds, oil, or some other valuable commodity. But Mauritius has no exploitable natural resources. Indeed, so dismal were its prospects as it approached independence from Britain, which came in 1968, that the Nobel Prize-winning economist James Meade wrote in 1961: "It is going to be a great achievement if [the country] can find productive employment for its population without a serious reduction in the existing standard of living. … [T]he outlook for peaceful development is weak."

再来看一些讨厌的数字。毛里求斯的国民生产总值30年来年增幅均超过5%。当然你会认为这其中必定有什么名堂。比如说毛里求斯一定有钻石、石油或其他一些值钱的商品。但毛里求斯没有可开采的自然资源。实际上,毛里求斯1968年从英国独立后前景一片黯淡,诺贝尔经济学奖获得者詹姆斯·米德曾在1961年写道:“如果毛里求斯能在不显著降低现有生活水平的情况下为老百姓创造出生产就业机会,那这将是一项伟大的成就。毛里求斯和平发展的前景微乎其微。”

As if to prove Meade wrong, the Mauritians have increased per capita income from less than $400 around the time of independence to more than $6,700 today. The country has progressed from the sugar-based monoculture of 50 years ago to a diversified economy that includes tourism, finance, textiles, and, if current plans bear fruit, advanced technology.

似乎是为了证明米德的错误,毛里求斯的人均国民生产总值从独立时的不足400美元增长至如今的6700美元。该国50年前单一种植糖类作物,而现在已发展成为一个多元化的经济体,包括旅游、金融、纺织。如果现阶段的计划取得成果,那么还将包括高科技。

During my visit, my interest was to understand better what had led to what some have called the Mauritius miracle and what others might learn from it. There are, in fact, many lessons, some of which should be borne in mind by American and European politicians as they fight their budget battles.

在考察期间,我重点关注是什么产生了所谓的毛里求斯奇迹,以及其他国家可以学到一些什么。实际有很多经验,其中一些应该被那些为预算而争执不休的美国、欧洲的政客牢记。

First, the question is not whether we can afford to provide health care or education for all or ensure widespread homeownership. If Mauritius can afford these things, America and Europe—which are several orders of magnitude richer—can, too. The question, rather, is how to organize society. Mauritians have chosen a path that leads to higher levels of social cohesion, welfare, and economic growth—and to a lower level of inequality.

首先,问题在于我们是否可以承受全民医疗服务、教育或确保广泛的人群拥有自己的住房。如果毛里求斯可以负担这些,那么较之富有好几倍的美国和欧洲都可以做到。相反,问题在于如果组织协调社会。毛里求斯的所走的道路产生了较强的社会凝聚力,较高的社会福利和较强的经济增长,而社会不均水平却较低。

Second, unlike many other small countries, Mauritius has decided that most military spending is a waste. The United States need not go as far. If the United States reduced by just a fraction its defense spending, much of which goes toward weapons that don't work against enemies that don't exist, it would go a long way toward creating a more humane society, including the provision of health care and education to those who cannot afford them.

第二,和许多其他小国不同,毛里求斯认为大部分的军费开销都是一种浪费。美国不需要花那么多的军费。如果美国将其防务开支很多用于为假想敌而准备的武器装备,如果稍稍削减一点,将十分有利于建立一个更加人道的社会,包括向无力支付医疗和教育人提供这些服务。

Third, Mauritius recognized that without natural resources, its people were its only asset. Maybe that appreciation for its human resources is also what led Mauritius to realize that, particularly given the country's potential religious, ethnic, and political differences—which some tried to exploit in order to induce it to remain a British colony—education for all was crucial to social unity. So was a strong commitment to democratic institutions and cooperation between workers, government, and employers—precisely the opposite of the kind of dissension and division being engendered by conservatives in the United States today.

第三,意识到自己自然资源贫瘠,毛里求斯将百姓视作唯一的资源。或许正是由于对其人力资源的重视才使毛里求斯意识到全民教育是社会团结的关键,特别是考虑到有人试图利用潜在的宗教、种族和政治差异来诱使毛里求斯保留英国殖民地身份这一情况时。恪守民主制度以及工人、政府和雇主之间和配合也同样重要。与之恰恰相反,美国的保守派制造了争执和分裂。

This is not to say that Mauritius is without problems. Like many other successful emerging-market countries, Mauritius is confronting a loss of exchange-rate competitiveness. And as more and more countries intervene to weaken their exchange rates in response to America's attempt at competitive devaluation through quantitative easing, the problem is becoming worse. Almost surely, Mauritius, too, will have to intervene.

毛里求斯也并非没有问题。和其他成功的新兴市场国家一样,毛里求斯正逐步失去汇率比较优势。为应对美国通过量化宽松政策造成美元竞争性贬值,越来越多的国家出手干预本币对美元汇率走高,汇率问题就变得跟为棘手。几乎可以肯定,毛里求斯也将不得不出手干预。

Moreover, like many other countries around the world, Mauritius worries today about imported food and energy inflation. To respond to inflation by increasing interest rates would simply compound the difficulties of high prices with high unemployment and an even less competitive exchange rate. Direct interventions, restrictions on short-term capital inflows, capital-gains taxes, and stabilizing prudential banking regulations will all have to be considered.

而且全球其他国家一样,毛里求斯如今也担心食物和能源引发输入性通胀。增加利率应对通胀只会加重高物价高失业率的风险,甚至进一步削弱汇率比较优势。直接干预、限制短期资本流入、加收资本税、实行审慎的银行监管都必须予以考虑。

The "Mauritius miracle" dates to independence. But the country still struggles with some of its colonial legacies: inequality in land and wealth, as well as vulnerability to high-stakes global politics. The United States occupies one of Mauritius's offshore islands, Diego Garcia, as a naval base without compensation, officially leasing it from the United Kingdom, which not only retained the Chagos Islands in violation of international law but expelled its citizens and refuses to allow them to return.

毛里求斯奇迹始于独立之日。但该国仍有殖民地时期的遗留问题需要解决:如土地和财富不均、受制于全球政治豪赌。美国无偿占有毛里求斯的一座海外岛屿(迪戈加西亚环礁)作为海军基地,依据法规,该岛屿是从英国手中租赁,与毛里求斯无关。而英国不仅违反国际法占据着查戈斯群岛,而且还驱逐了岛上的居民,不允许他们返岛。

The United States should now do right by this peaceful and democratic country: recognize Mauritius' rightful ownership of Diego Garcia, renegotiate the lease, and redeem past sins by paying a fair amount for land that it has illegally occupied for decades.

美国现在应该公平对待这个和平民主的国家,在承认毛里求斯对迪戈加西亚环礁的合法主权后,与其商量租赁事宜,并弥补自己过去的罪恶,为非法占领了几十年的土地支付相应费用。



from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/258571/243131