译者 菁萤
Nope, just debt
The next big credit bubble?
美国学生借贷危机
IN LATE 1965, President Lyndon Johnson stood in the modest gymnasium of what had once been the tiny teaching college he attended in Texas and announced a programme to promote education. It was an initiative that exemplified the “Great Society” agenda of his administration: social advancement financed by a little hard cash, lots of leverage and potentially vast implicit government commitments. Those commitments are now coming due.
1965年底，在德克萨斯州的一家型体育馆（旧址是总统林顿∙约翰逊就读的大学）内，总统林顿∙约翰逊宣布了一项推动教育事业发展的举措。这项举措史无前例，被看作是约翰逊政府“伟大社会”议程的典范：即通过发放小数额现金，高额借贷，以及大量潜在的政府资助来为教育事业发展提供支持。但是这些承诺即将到期。
“Economists tell us that improvement of education has been responsible for one-fourth to one-half of the growth in our nation’s economy over the past half-century,” Johnson said. “We must be sure that there will be no gap between the number of jobs available and the ability of our people to perform those jobs.”
“经济学家告诉我们，在过去半个世纪里，国家经济的发展有将近1/4乃至1/2得益于教育事业。”约翰逊说：“我们必须培养适合岗位能力需求的人才，消除供职岗位需求与人才培养能力的差距。”
To fill this gap Johnson pledged an amount that now seems trivial, $1.9m, sent from the federal government to states which could then leverage it ten-to-one to back student loans of up to $1,000 for 25,000 people. “This act”, he promised, “will help young people enter business, trade, and technical schools—institutions which play a vital role in providing the skills our citizens must have to compete and contribute in our society.”
为了缩减这一差距，约翰逊许诺从联邦政府向各州拨款190万美元（这在现在看来似乎是微不足道的），以帮助25000个学生每人获得将近1000美元的贷款。“这一举措旨在帮助年轻学子实现进入商学院和技术院校的梦想——这些院校在培养适合社会需求的人才方面扮演着重要的角色。”
Almost a half-century later these modest steps have metastasised into a huge, federally guaranteed student-loan industry. On October 25th the Obama administration added indebted students to the list of banks, car companies, homeowners, solar manufacturers and others that have benefited from a federal handout.
半个世纪后，这些原本先进的措施却发展成一个庞大、且由联邦政府担保的学生借贷业。10月25日，在奥巴马政府的帮助下，这些学生纷纷进入到了银行、汽车、房地产、太阳能及其他获得联邦政府扶助的机构进行工作。
Johnson’s lending programme was altered almost straight away. The intention of providing students with an education through “business, trade and technical schools” was expanded to include the full, imaginative panoply of American education, regardless of economic utility. Interest rates and terms have all been adjusted numerous times.
事实上，这一借贷项目提出后不久便偏离了约翰逊的初衷。原本是为了让广大学子能够更多地享受到“商学院和技术院”接受教育，但却逐渐衍变为以牺牲经济利益为代价来装点美国教育的甲胄。在此期间，利率和条款已经被修改过无数次。
The result is a shifting, difficult landscape only barely understood even by insiders. For students, the task is that much larger. They must choose between an array of products, including subsidised and unsubsidised “Stafford” loans (named after a Republican senator) via the William D. Ford loan programme (named for a Michigan congressman), loans directly from the government, “Plus” loans (for parents of dependent children) and “Perkins” loans (named after a congressman from Kentucky), plus an array of private options.
由此导致美国学生借贷业冗长而复杂，只有少数内部人士可以完全参透。而对于学生来说，任务变得如此艰巨。他们必须在一系列产品中选择，有津贴补助和无津贴补助的“斯塔福”贷款（以一名共和党参议员命名），政府直接贷款，“普拉斯”贷款（无谋生能力的子女父母）和“珀金斯”贷款，以及一系列私人贷款。
On top of all this, there are choices about how to consolidate, restructure and pay the debts. Many students are understandably overwhelmed. Deanne Loonin of the National Consumer Law Centre has one client with $300,000 in debt from a failed effort to become an airline pilot. That liability could have been reduced by a better understanding of products.
更让人头疼地是，在如何合并、重组和支付等问题上也有多种选择。由此看来，许多学生在贷款时感到不知所措是相当可以被理解的。据国家消费者法律中心Deanne Loonin女士介绍，她的一位客户由于未能实现飞行员的梦想如今仍拖欠着30万美元的贷款。如果当时能对各种贷款及贷款的各项要求能够很好地理解并加以合理的选择，那么是可以避免这些后果的。
Two things, however, are clear. The size of student debt is vast (see chart), and lots of borrowers are struggling. More than 10m students took out loans for the latest academic year, according to a report issued on October 26th by the College Board, a consortium of academic institutions. Almost a third of students graduating from college, and 69% of the ones dropping out, hold debt tied to their education.
在学生借贷中主要有两个突出问题。一个是学生贷款的额度过大（见表），另一个是借款者求职环境竞争激烈。10月26日由大学理事会（一家学术机构联合会）发表的一项报告指出，最近一学年有超过1千万的学生进行了贷款，其中有1/3是大学毕业生，69%是缀学。
The total amount of debt is staggering. The New York Federal Reserve Bank puts it at $550 billion, but includes a footnote in the “technical notes” section suggesting this may be an underestimate. Sallie Mae, the school-loan equivalent of the housing industry’s Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reckons there are $757 billion-worth of outstanding loans. A bank heavily involved in the area says there is at least another $111 billion in purely private loans, and with new lending estimated in excess of $112 billion for this year alone, the total amount outstanding will surpass $1 trillion in the not-so-distant future.
贷款总额大得惊人。纽约联邦储备银行共发放了5,500亿美元，这个数目可能还是被低估的。学生贷款市场协会估计未支付的贷款额度高达7,570亿美元。受影响的一家当地银行介绍说至少还有1,110亿美元来自于私人贷款，仅本年度的贷款额估计就会超过1,120亿，那么未来未支付的总额将累计超过1万亿美元。
Critics allege a viciously wasteful circle: the size of the loan pool expands to enable students to pay ever higher fees to schools whose costs expand because money is coming their way. That was just about sustainable in the good times, a lot harder when there are fewer jobs to be had.
评论家认为这是资源浪费的恶性循环：贷款额度的扩大将使更多的学生可以支付高额学费，从而进入到更多高成本学校。这在就业形势乐观的情况下，当然好；反之，只会增加学生还贷的压力，进而造成资源的浪费。
Signs of strain are everywhere. In September the Department of Education reported that in 2009 the default rate, which is defined as non-payment for 270 days, had reached 8.8%. By some estimates delinquency rates, an earlier indicator of stress, for student loans exceed 10%, ten times that for credit cards and car loans. Ms Loonin’s average client has a low-paying job, $30,000 of debt and is in arrears.
贷款过度的现象不胜枚举。9月份教育部发布的官方报告指出，按2009年默认的比率计算，270天内未付款的比例已经达到8.8%。在债务拖欠率中，学生贷款超过10%，是信用卡和汽车贷款的10倍。据Loonin女士介绍，未能及时还清贷款的客户普遍工资较低，平均未支付贷款额达30,000美元。
This is despite punitive laws to enforce repayment. In response to clever students burying their obligations in court during the 1970s, anti-default provisions were imposed to make it almost impossible to shed student loans in bankruptcy. In 1991 the statute of limitations for non-repayment was eliminated.
还款不在刑法强制范围内。在20世纪70年代，为了防止学生不履行义务，政府新增了反拖欠条款。1991年时，这些对未支付限制的法令被取缔。
Many troubled borrowers could avoid default if they used government options to consolidate their loans and make minimum payments, says Ms Loonin, but they are unaware of the possibility. Their primary contact with the industry after being granted a loan is through collection agents who are compensated based on how much they collect, and who therefore have little incentive to explain alternatives.
为了避免拖欠，借款者可以通过政府渠道来合并贷款并且获得最低额度的支付。但是他们没有这样做。当借款者获得贷款后，他们通过代收人与贷款方间接沟通。代收人的报酬是根据他们自己的业务量，所以不会主动介绍更多合适的方法。
There are increasingly loud calls for reform of the system, with demands that range from a full-fledged bail-out of borrowers to a phased curtailment of government lending. For now the bail-out is the bigger priority for politicians. For many years government-backed loans were distributed through banks which earned a fee and occasionally had to assume a little bit of risk, but in 2009 the business was entirely absorbed by the federal government.
如今，人们要求对学生贷款体系整改的呼声越来越大。有的提议建立完善的借款应急措施，有的建议阶段性减少政府资助。而前者是政府工作者优先考虑的。惯例是政府通过银行发放贷款，银行从中获得一部分费用的同时偶尔承担一些风险。但是在2009年，联邦政府开始自行发放贷款。
The changes announced this week are designed to ease the pressure on struggling graduates. Borrowers who qualify will get payment relief, not debt relief. Their payments will be capped at 10% of income rather than 15%, but interest will continue to be applied to their underlying debt and may expand rather than contract over time. There will also be forgiveness after 20 years, rather than 25. The administration says these changes will have no cost to taxpayers. If there is one lesson of the past 46 years, it is to be dubious of that claim.
这周宣布的整改计划旨在缓解毕业生的压力。符合条件的借贷者将从支付方式上得到相应缓解。支付方式以扣去收入的15%变为10%，但是利息仍不变，仅随时间而进行调整。20年后学生贷款过度的现象可能会有所改观。联邦政府表示这些整改计划不会对纳税人增加负担。如果需要对过去46年进行一个经验教训的总结的话，那就是需要质疑过去。
from 译言-社会/文化/法律 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/189182/228070