译者 idle
China’s rapid economic advances over the past three decades are undeniable. But as social pressures build, is the country set to relive the trauma of America’s Gilded Age?
过去三十年中国经济的快速进步毋庸置疑。但随着社会压力的出现，中国是否会重现美国镀金时代的问题？
Published in 1873, Mark Twain’s novel The Gilded Age describes a post-Reconstruction United States in which rapid economic growth generated tremendous wealth for the upper class, and technological innovations improved the quality of life for a burgeoning middle class. Twain also detailed how America’s workers worked long hours in dangerous conditions for low pay, and how corruption rendered the country’s politicians unresponsive to the needs of their constituents. While many of the Occupy Wall Street protesters on U.S. streets may draw parallels between the America of that time with that of today, Twain’s novel provides an evocative window on contemporary China.
1873年出版，马克吐温的小说《镀金时代》描述了重建后的美国，经济快速增长中，上层阶级产生了巨大的财富，蓬勃兴起的中产阶级，生活质量因科技创新得到改善。吐温还详细介绍了美国工人拿着低工资，长时间在危险的环境下工作，腐败使得国家的政治家们，对民众的需要反应迟钝。虽然许多美国街头“占领华尔街”的示威者，可能会将过去拿来比较，认为和今天的美国有相似之处，但马克吐温的小说给当代中国打开了一扇引人深思的窗口。
The rate and duration of China’s economic growth have no historical precedent. In just over 30 years, China has been transformed from one of the poorest countries in the world, in which tens of millions died of starvation, into the world’s second-largest economy. Where communal farms once languished, one can find modern skyscrapers and Starbucks. Where people once wore Mao suits and rode bicycles, there are now Prada, BMW, and iPhones galore.
中国经济增长的速度和持续时间在历史上都没有先例。在刚刚过去的30多年里，中国从一个几千万人死于饥饿，世界上最穷的国家之一，变成世界上第二大经济体。一个曾经集体农场毫无活力的地方，可以找到现代摩天大楼和星巴克。一个曾经人们穿着中山装，骑着自行车的地方，看到现在的普拉达，宝马，和iPhone。
Remarkable economic growth has created a new Chinese wealthy elite, an ironic statement about a country still formerly dedicated to communism and the teachings of Karl Marx. There are now almost a million millionaires in China, and more than 400 billionaires (second only to the United States). A nascent middle class is also growing, making China the world’s largest market for consumer items like cars and PCs. This growth is driving economists to predict China’s inevitable rise to become the world’s largest economic power, with experts only disagreeing on the exact year it will happen. Thomas Friedman, though admitting he’s “not a China expert,” has proclaimed his envy of China’s “Reaganism.”
经济的显著增长创造了一个新的中国富裕精英阶层，对共产主义和马克思的学说仍然主导一个国家，是一个具有讽刺意味的说明。现在中国有将近一百万个百万富翁，超过400个亿万富翁（仅次于美国）。一个新兴的中产阶级也越发状大，正使中国成为世界最大的消费市场，如汽车和个人电脑。这种增长促使经济学家预测，中国崛起成为世界最大经济强国是必然的，只是在确切发生的年份上专家有些不同意见。托马斯·弗里德曼，虽然认为自己“不是中国专家”，但承认羡慕中国的“里根主义”。
Yet several specters haunt China.
然而有几个隐患困扰着中国。
In order for these economic projections to come to fruition, China’s economic planners must navigate a set of structural and demographic challenges the scale of which has never been seen before. To continue economic growth, China’s economy will have to fundamentally shift away from its current orientation toward exports and grow based on its own consumption. Other structural challenges, from taxes and regulation to intellectual property and the rule of law, all must be reformed if China’s economic growth is to continue. China’s leaders will also have to manage an unprecedented level of urbanization, with an expected 400 million new urban residents (yes, that’s more than the entire U.S. population) by 2050. Just as daunting, China’s population is rapidly ageing, which will become a tremendous economic challenge given the effects of China’s One Child Policy and its Bachmann-beloved lack of a Social Security program.
为了让这些经济预测成为现实，中国的经济规划者必须面临一系列，从来没有过的，结构和人口规模的挑战。要继续经济增长，中国经济将不得不从根本上转变，从目前的外向型，转向根据内需增长。如果中国要继续保持经济增长，其他结构性的挑战，从税收和监管，到知识产权和法治，都必须进行改革。中国领导人不得不管理一个前所未有的城市化水平，预计到2050年，将产生4亿新的城镇居民（是的，这超过了整个美国人口）。更艰巨的是，中国人口在迅速老龄化，由于独生子女政策和社保计划的巴赫曼缺陷『0』，将成为一个巨大的经济挑战。
Beyond economic and demographic challenges, China is roiling with discontent. As the Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, 40 percent of Chinese are unhappy with their lives, 70 percent of farmers are dissatisfied, and 60 percent of China’s rich are emigrating or considering doing so. While each group has its own reasons – farmers resent abusive land seizures by local government officials, city dwellers are regularly victims of government abuse, and China’s wealthy would prefer to live where their children have better educational opportunities and their wealth is more secure – this translates to a roiling hotbed of popular discontent. Tens of millions of Chinese who have moved from the countryside to the cities in search of work receive little basic government support, such as medical care and education, because they are generally considered to be illegal immigrants by city officials.
除经济和人口挑战外，中国民怨涌动。正如《华尔街日报》最近指出，40％的中国人对他们的生活不高兴，70％的农民不满现状，60％的富人正在移民或考虑这样做。虽然每个阶层有自己的原因 - 农民不满当地政府官员粗暴强占土地，城市居民经常成为政府恶行的受害者，富人期望生活在子女有更好的教育机会，财富更安全的地方 - 这都是民怨涌动的温床。百万计的，从农村到城市寻找工作的人，得不到基本的政府支持，如医疗保健和教育，因为他们通常被城市官员认为是非法进城人员。
Riots, often violent, are a daily occurrence. According to official statistics, there were 127,000 so-called “mass incidents” in 2010 alone – an average of over 340 per day.
暴乱每天都在发生，通常是暴力的。根据官方统计，仅2010年就有127000起“群体性事件”——平均每天超过340起。
There are certainly ways to address these problems. The United States gradually developed tools to manage the negative effects of its own Gilded Age, by eventually allowing the rise of labor unions, laws to protect investment, efforts to stamp out official corruption, and eventually implementation of welfare and social security programs. Yet in each case, implementing these tools in China would require a fundamental change in how business is done. Labor unions are (naturally) controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, the rule of law in China is unreliable at best, and official corruption is a persistent problem on a scale that would even make Jack Abramoff blanch.
这些问题当然有解决之法。对自己镀金时代的负面影响，美国逐渐发展起来一套管理机制，如最终工会的兴起，保护投资的法律建立，杜绝官员腐败的努力，以及最终福利和社会保障方案的实施。然而，无论哪方面在中国实行，都需要做事方式的根本性变化。工会自然是由党控制的，法治不可靠，官员腐败是长期存在的问题，甚至阿布拉莫夫『1』都望尘莫及。
Most fundamentally, China’s ability to manage future problems will be hampered by its political system. The United States was able to (very gradually) adjust to the problems it faced because its leaders were accountable to a voting public that demanded reform. China’s leaders, however, aren’t directly held accountable by their people. While Chinese politicians routinely (and often genuinely) cite popular opinion as a driver in their decision-making, tying one’s position and job to regular elections has the effect of sharpening one’s need to represent the interests of the public.
最根本的是，中国管理未来问题的能力会影响到它的政治制度。美国能够逐渐适应它面临的问题，因为它的领导人对投票要求改革的市民负责。然而，中国的领导人，并不直接对自己的人民负责。虽然中国的政治家经常（而且往往是真正）引用民意作为其决策，定期选举有助磨砺个人岗位和工作满足公众需要。
The implications of these phenomena for China, and for the world, are staggering. Unlike with the democratic world, the Chinese people don’t have the ability to vent their frustration with free and fair elections. This has the effect of putting a lid on a political pressure cooker, forcing people to express their discontent through riots and difficult-to-censor microblogging. If something goes wrong, this pressure could explode.
这些现象对中国，乃至世界的影响都是惊人的。与民主社会不同，中国的民众没有能力，来发泄对自己自由公正选举的无奈。这种给政治压力盖锅盖的结果，迫使人们通过暴动和难以审查的微博来表达他们的不满。一有问题，这种压力就会宣泄出来。
Domestic problems in China, either caused by political discontent or structural economic difficulties, would have disastrous effects on the economies reliant on China as a source for trade, which basically includes every country on the planet. Economies around the world would fall, and history has demonstrated that countries during these difficult times can be unpredictable, at best, on the world stage.
中国的内部问题，无论是政治不满还是结构性经济困难造成的，都将对依赖于中国经济贸易，基本上世界各国，产生灾难性影响。世界经济将倒退，历史已经证明，在世界舞台上，处于这样困难时期的国家是不稳定的。
China’s current leaders are acutely aware of the problems their country faces, and are trying to adjust economic growth and introduce policies designed to account for the problems created by unchecked economic growth. They have set a goal for slower economic growth, have called for increased development and investment in China’s poorer provinces, are considering policies to respond to concerns voiced by farmers and migrant workers, and are attempting to crack down on corruption. Ironically, China’s nominal communist ideology somewhat prepares China’s leaders for these challenges – after all, who understands the political challenges posed by burgeoning economic inequality and a rising middle class better than a Marxist?
中国现任领导人敏锐地意识到自己国家面临的问题，并正在努力调整经济增长，引入对经济增长造成的问题的审核政策。他们已经设立了经济增长放缓的目标，呼吁增加在贫困省份的发展和投资，考虑农民和农民工关心的政策，并试图打击腐败。具有讽刺意味的是，中国名义上的共产主义思想对这些挑战有所准备，中国领导人 ——毕竟，谁明白蓬勃发展的经济不平等和一个崛起的中产阶级比一个马克思主义者所带来的政治挑战是好是坏？『2』
America’s Gilded Age began after the national trauma that was the Civil War and a remarkable period of Reconstruction that saw significant internal development and stabilization. China’s Gilded Age began after the national trauma that was the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution, and occurred after a remarkable period of internal development and stabilization under Deng Xiaoping. The United States’ Gilded Age lasted for 16 years, ending with a financial panic in 1893 that turned into a depression, then a Progressive era that saw reform at home and adventurism abroad. It has been 22 years since 1989 signaled the end of Deng Xiaoping’s post-Mao Reconstruction and the beginning of Shanghai-style economic growth under the leadership of Jiang Zemin.
美国的“镀金时代”开始于内战造成的创伤之后，有一个显著的重建时期，可以看到明显的内部发展和国家的稳定。中国的镀金时代始于大跃进和文化大革命的创伤后，在邓小平领导下有一个内部发展和稳定的时期。美国“镀金时代”历时16年，随着1893年的金融恐慌结束，陷入萧条，之后是一个国内改革，国外冒险的进步时代。自1989年邓小平的毛后重建，江泽民领导下开始上海式经济增长，已有22年。
Ultimately, Beijing’s ability to navigate China’s staggering challenges will fall to the next generation of leadership in Beijing, set to come into power next year. There’s currently a debate roiling the halls of power in Beijing, with some calling for a retrenchment of unchecked economic growth and others hope to avoid the mistakes of their American predecessors and are calling for what amounts to a Chinese Progressive era. There’s no reason why China must follow America’s painful path out of the Gilded Age, and the United States should do everything it can to help ensure that China’s rise is peaceful and stable. Yet the past is not encouraging. Indeed, as Twain is often quoted as saying: history does not repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.
最终，在明年，领导中国面对惊人挑战的能力将转移给北京的下一代领导人。现下在北京权力中心有一个莫衷一是的辩论，一部分人呼吁不受制约的经济增长，其他人则希望避免美国前辈的错误，迎来一个中国的进步时代。中国没有理由必须走美国镀金时代的痛苦之路，而美国应竭尽所能，来帮助确保中国的崛起是和平和稳定的。虽然，过去并不令人鼓舞。事实上，拿被经常引述的马克吐温的话说：历史不会重演，但总是惊人的相似。
译注：
0. 这个地方没查到Bachmann-beloved lack的具体意思，还望有了解的同仁告知。
1. Jack Abramoff，（1959年2月28日－），美国共和党人，专业从事美国院外游说活动的知名人士，有美国游说业“教父”之称。2006年1月3日，阿布拉莫夫承认共谋、欺诈和逃税三项重罪，为换取减轻刑责，成为检方证人，配合调查收受贿赂的国会人员。1月4日，阿布拉莫夫承认为购买海上赌博公司，捏造2300万美元电汇转账，骗取6000万美元贷款。
2.这一句的翻译有点拿不准。
from 译言-每日精品译文推荐 http://article.yeeyan.org/view/67321/234993